2019 semi-annual resumption: extreme night, warm spring, midsummer and the most beautiful expectation

This article Source: APP shallot Author: Yu Wen handsome, Hu Chen

In just half a year, even the obvious seasonal change has not been felt, and the market has undergone earth-shaking changes .


The bear market in the whole year of 2018 caused the market sentiment to fall to the bottom at the end of last year. Bitcoin went down from $20,000 and fell to around 3100 in mid-December last year. It started the extreme weakness of more than three months. The sideways volatility in the range, and in the first quarter of 2019, the market has been immersed in this "extreme night" situation that does not see the future .

However, it is precisely in this situation that the market sentiment is almost freezing, and the new change has appeared on the second day of the second quarter of this year.

At 12:00 noon on April 2, Beijing time, bitcoin prices quickly started around $4,180, and the market quickly soared to $5,000 in just two hours. Domestic investors wake up to see a nearly 20% increase. The official opening of the Mavericks market in the first half of this year. In the early hours of the morning, the highest price in the bitcoin price touched the $14,000 line, and the price rose nearly 10,000 dollars in less than three months, an increase of more than 200%.

At the same time that Bitcoin continues to exert its strength, the high-linkage nature of the digital currency market has directly driven other mainstream currencies to usher in a new round of general market growth in the past. As shown in the early heat map, the market value is high. The average growth rate of the currency in the first half of this year has reached almost 100%. This collective doubled market performance has caused the market sentiment that has been suppressed for a long time to explode rapidly, and the emerging market of digital currency has once again returned to the spotlight.

The biggest gain: the platform coin segment is rapidly maturing

In addition to Bitcoin, the BNB and HT platform coins in the heat map are very eye-catching. BNB has achieved an amazing 500% increase since the beginning of the year, while HT has performed relatively weakly, but also outperformed BTC and achieved super 250% half-year increase. Therefore, while the platform coin sector achieved considerable gains in the first half of the year, it also consolidated the “independence” of its own sector to a certain extent.

From the traditional concept, the mainstream currency, and even the entire digital currency market, basically maintains a highly positive correlation with Bitcoin. This situation has been “validated” during the bear market last year, and this linkage is not “good news”, which directly leads to a decline in market richness, which makes digital asset allocation difficult to carry out effectively. Risk control, after all, if all the currencies in the market rise and fall together, then batch allocation will not have real value and significance.

However, in the general upswing in the first half of this year, the rising rhythm of BNB and HT is not very consistent with BTC. The two most representative platform currencies are basically kept up and down, and represented by BTC. The rhythm between the mainstream currencies has a very distinct difference in the short-cycle graphics. In the process of a sharp correction in the short-term market, HT has almost no strong performance of falling follow-up, which makes the market's strong posture further consolidate this view.

It can be seen that the mainstream exchange platform currency is rapidly evolving into an indispensable part of digital asset allocation. A certain proportion of the configuration currently seems to be able to control the risk when Bitcoin leads most mainstream currencies.

The most different fireworks: IEO

In the first half of this year, IEO was on fire and the fire was very thorough.

After the collapse of the Launchpad platform launched by Coin in 2017 for more than a year, the restart of the first half of this year almost ignited the entire market in an instant, and the two projects of BTT and FET completed the crowdfunding in an instant. The IEO myth has set sail, and mainstream exchanges such as Bittrex, Firecoin and OKEx have launched their own IEO platforms. The eye-catching performance after the project went live makes the fire more and more prosperous. As of early June, the Ian Online Exchange After the average yield is as high as 501%, OKEx IEO average yield is 272%, and the average yield of the fire coin IEO is also 186%.

IEO is a “playing method”. Simply put, the project party only needs to be recognized by the exchange, and it can conduct crowdfunding in the exchange. Investors can use platform coins to participate in crowdfunding to purchase tokens. After crowdfunding, the project is Can be put online on the trading platform. Therefore, the exchange is equivalent to one-stop completion of the work of the project side.

In the previous trading market, it played a more intermediary role, simply connecting investors and project parties, but now the exchange through the IEO platform, instantly stood at the top of the project chain, the investor community's ecological chain, through its own platform currency , became the king of the trading ecology. This is the main reason why the exchange is so respected by IEO, not even one of them.

But is this really "sparkling show" really a long-term solution?

In fact, after the IEO's trust in the market was exhausted, the only remaining trust was passed on to the head exchange, which became the endorsement of the project and the role of the platform. In fact, the risks of IEO have not disappeared. Because the project is still the same batch of projects, the difference is that the exchange has been screened for the endorsement, but it is still a high-risk blockchain project.

This will also lead to problems such as the break of the project, the target of the investor's "question" will be transferred from the project side to the exchange at the top of the blockchain ecology. Therefore, for the head exchange, IEO is very dangerous. It is a cruel game of "only success, no failure."

It was precisely because the exchange gradually realized this risk that the frenzied situation at the beginning of the outbreak quickly subsided. With the recent strengthening of mainstream currencies, the attention of IEO was further diversified and the head exchange was launched. The frequency of IEO projects has also slowed considerably. In this regard, the crazy performance of IEO in the first half of the year has almost come to an end.

The most beautiful expectation: BTC, the real challenge has just arrived

After the rapid rise in the last two months, BTC has successfully reached the 10,000-dollar integer mark. However, in the past few trading days, the unilateral upward trend of the market has shown obvious signs of stagnation, and the price briefly touched 14,000. After that, it was not able to successfully break through and quickly returned to around 10,000 in a short time.


However, in the past few trading days, BTC has been oscillating around the key position of 11500. It is not surprising, and it still keeps the first half of the Mavericks alive.

The position of 11500, which happens to be the BTC's historical high point from the end of 2017, to the low point around 3100 at the end of last year, the wavelength of the whole year's falling band reversed the semi-final key resistance position. At the same time, there are still two high-level rebounds in the region from the end of February to the beginning of March. Therefore, the technical reference value of this location is very impressive.

However, the short-term consolidation of the BTC near this position is still determined by the support that has been transformed into a breakthrough after this resistance has been broken. The price did not fall below the 11,500 position in the sharp fall after the 14000 mark was frustrated, and the unilateral upward trend in the first half of the year is expected to continue, and this is true, if BTC can take over the daily line in the recent period. And the weekly line and other nodes continue to confirm that this support is not broken, and the space for further market growth will still exist.

As far as the current technical form is concerned, if the market breaks down in the process of testing the 11,500 first-line test, then in the next few months, the BTC will return to the wide fluctuations in the range of 8000-12000, BTC. The half-year-old calf will stop here. And if BTC can complete a further upward breakthrough for the 14,000 integer mark, the price will enter a region where technical resistance is relatively scarce, and the stronger resistance is expected to directly see the 16000-17000 area, and this will undoubtedly become the most beautiful in the second half of this year. Expectation

These ten major events in the first half of the year must not be forgotten.

The first half of 2019 is about to pass. In the currency circle, there are a few players who can remember to be screened. There are also a few news that can recall the hot search.

The currency circle is one day, one year in the world. I don't remember being too normal. I only blame the times for changing too fast. The memory of attention is too limited. Scallion in the middle of the year to knock on the blackboard: focus on the ten things in the first half of the year, the information reserve of the currency circle is enough.

First, Ethereum "Constantinople hard fork" was postponed

On January 16th, the long-awaited upgrade of Ethereum Constantinople opened a new security hole, which led to the plan being postponed again after a problem with the online line of the Ropsten test in October last year.

On March 1, the height of the Ethereum block reached 7,280,000, and the upgrade of Constantinople and St. Petersburg. At the same time, it is observed through the Geth and Parity nodes that the block is stable after the block height of 7280000, which indicates that the Ethereum hard fork has been successful.

After the upgrade was initiated, the first 15 blocks of Ethereum were packaged within 5 minutes. The block reward has been reduced to two ETHs, and the daily output is reduced. After the upgrade, the price of Ethereum fluctuated little.

Second, JPMorgan Chase will issue cryptocurrency JPM Coin

On February 16, JP Morgan Chase said it will launch the cryptocurrency "JPM Coin" and will start testing in a few months. Initially the token will be used to settle a small portion of the transaction between the wholesale payment business customers in real time. In addition, the token can only be used by major institutional clients approved by the regulatory body.

JPM Coin is very similar to the stable currency on the market today, as each token will represent one dollar. After the customer deposits, JPMorgan Chase will issue the token, and after the customer uses the token to pay or purchase the securities on the blockchain, the bank will destroy the token and return the equivalent dollar.

JPMorgan believes that JPM Coin will be used in three areas: international payments for large corporate clients, securities trading, and large companies that use JP Morgan Chase's capital business.

Third, the list of the first batch of blockchain filings in China

On March 31, the official website of the State Internet Information Office announced the first batch of 197 blockchain information service names and filing numbers, involving 164 companies.

Many well-known companies such as "BATJ" (Baidu, Ali, Tencent, Jingdong), which are considered to be Internet giants, are on the record list.

Geographically, Red Star News reporters found that Beijing received the largest number of filings, followed by Guangdong and Shanghai.

The blockchain filing to a certain extent means that the blockchain industry is becoming more standardized, but it does not completely mean the recognition and affirmation of the network-based enterprises, and more is a "registration" and record.

Fourth, the bitland mainland "dream broken" Hong Kong Stock Exchange

On March 26, the HKEx disclosed information that the mining giant "Bitland" prospectus had expired, meaning that listing in Hong Kong is temporarily hopeless.

This is in addition to the "Yibang International" which has been ineffective before, and the "Yibang International" which failed to submit the application again. The first IPO of the three major mining machine manufacturers in the world ended in failure.

On June 21, foreign media revealed that Bitcoin is restarting its IPO plan and is preparing to go public in the US as soon as possible in the second half of this year. The IPO financing target is between US$300 million and US$500 million.

Fifth, Bitfinex is deeply involved in judicial scandals

On April 25, New York Attorney General Letia James announced that her office had obtained a court order obliging Bitfinex virtual asset trading platform operator iFinex Inc. and "tether" virtual currency issuer Tether Limited and its related entities to immediately stop continuing to violate New York. Legal activities.

James accused, "Our investigation has identified operators of the 'Bitfinex' trading platform, who control the 'tether' virtual currency, and they cover up their $850 million in losses by mixing customer and corporate funds."

Fidelity will launch bitcoin trading services for institutional investors

On May 6th, Fidelity Digital Assets, a subsidiary of Fidelity Group, will launch Bitcoin trading services in recent weeks, which will face institutional investors rather than retail investors.

Fidelity Digital Assets is currently offering cryptocurrency hosting services, inviting only selected customers.

Fidelity spokesperson Arlene Roberts said in an e-mail: "We currently support a select group of customers on the platform. We will continue to launch us in the coming weeks and months based on customer needs, jurisdiction and other factors. Service. Currently, the service focus is on Bitcoin."

Seven, "coin security" was hacked to attack more than 7,000 bitcoins stolen

In the early morning of May 8, a hacking attack occurred in Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, losing 7,074 bitcoins, worth about $41 million.

The hacker’s cut-and-forward activity is either used to pay to other parties or to attempt to disrupt the source of funds in order to successfully launder money. Some of the decentralized funds are likely to have been successfully sold out.

After bitcoin was stolen, less than an hour, bitcoin prices fell 3%, and the market value evaporated by $2.7 billion. There are 350,000 bitcoins in the currency security, and the stolen 7,000 BTCs account for about 2% of the total BTC holdings.

Eight, after the currency circle, Sun Yuchen set a record to take Buffett lunch

On June 1st, Sun Yuchen, the founder of the 90-year wave field TRON and the CEO of BitTorrent, took a record of $4,567,888 and set a record for lunch with Buffett.

Sun Yuchen had previously expressed the idea of ​​inviting the people of Wu Jiuhan, Zhao Changpeng, Li Lin and others to go to the banquet, but Zhao Changpeng declined, and Li Lin said that he had appointed executives to participate.

With Sun Yuchen's high-profile search, his old story with Sogou CEO Wang Xiaochuan was revived five years ago. At that time, Wang Xiaochuan’s evaluation of Sun Yuchen was “a liar.”

Nine, Facebook sends cryptocurrency Libra

On June 18th, Facebook released a white paper on the project called "Libra", which attracted worldwide attention.

According to the white paper, Libra has adopted a coalition chain structure and has partnered with 29 institutions including investment institutions, blockchains, social media, communications companies, e-commerce, shared travel, non-profit organizations, music, travel, and payment. ,

Libra's mission is to create a simple, borderless currency and financial infrastructure that serves billions of people.

After the emergence of Libra, Ma Huateng quickly said that the technology is very mature, it is not difficult, it depends on whether the regulation is allowed.

US House of Representatives officials asked Facebook to stop issuing Libra before review by the relevant authorities; and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said he would not worry that Libra would replace fiat money.

Ten, bitcoin is back! Stand up for $10,000 again

On June 21st, the world's most widely used digital currency, Bitcoin, broke through the $10,000 mark again. Earlier in December 2017, bitcoin prices soared 140% to a record high of $19,511 before the cryptocurrency "bubble" burst.

Since the beginning of the year, bitcoin prices have soared by 173%, and the past month's increase has exceeded 27%. The transaction price for the first four months of 2019 was between $3,000 and $4,000.

From the end of 2016 to 2018, the price of bitcoin soared from a few hundred dollars to more than 20,000 US dollars. After reaching its historical peak in December 2017, it dropped sharply. In 2018, bitcoin prices fell by 74%. In December 2018, it hit a near-term low of about $3,100.