Abstract: After the short-term overheating of the market, the market began to cool down, and the subsequent large-scale probability continued to consolidate the power, and the market divergence gradually increased. Yesterday, the market continued to pull back, and the main force was testing effective support. Among them, the long-term upward trend of crypto assets has not changed. In the short-term, BTC and ETH oscillating adjustment will continue the slow upward or short-term rapid callback volatility adjustment. The short-term downside risks of BTC still exist, and the high probability will fluctuate within the range of 10,000-12,000 US dollars; ETH will be relatively strong in short-term performance, with a certain rebound trend, and the high probability will fluctuate within the range of 290-310 USD.
According to QKL123 statistics, at 14:00 on July 1, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 2,216.773 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours decreased by 6.68%, the total turnover in 24 hours was 642.323 billion yuan, and the total turnover in 24 hours increased by 4.78. %. The market value of BTC and ETH accounted for 61.57% and 9.83%, respectively. The former accounted for a decrease from yesterday.
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Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BTC fell the most (-6.70%), followed by ETH (-5.69%), and the net inflow of 24 hours of the two funds was -1.107 billion yuan and 426 million yuan respectively; XRP The decline was the smallest (-2.00%), and its net 24-hour capital inflow was -1.96 billion yuan; LTC had the highest turnover rate, followed by EOS, and the 24-hour turnover rate of the two was 60.88% and 50.20% respectively; BNB The turnover rate is the lowest, followed by BTC, and the 24-hour turnover rate of the two is 4.19% and 7.64% respectively. The USDT's 24-hour price increase was +0.71%, the 24-hour net inflow was +62 million, and the 24-hour turnover rate was 6.16%.
At 14:00 today, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 17,368.04 points, a 24-hour uptrend to -6.96%, and an alternative.me sentiment index of 65, which was significantly lower than yesterday's (78), but still showing greed. Yesterday, the Baidu search index of Bitcoin was 66,624 points, which was significantly lower than the previous day (74,722), but still higher than the average of the month. At present, Bitcoin's Google search trend has decreased slightly in 24 hours, but it is still higher than the average of the month, close to the level of September 2017 (before the mad cow market started).
Analyst's point of view: After the market short-term overheating, it began to cool down, the market divergence gradually increased, and the subsequent large-scale probability continued to consolidate its reserves.
First, the spot BTC market
24H highest: ¥79,546.05 24H minimum: ¥76,364.83
At 08:00 today, BTC continued to drop to US$10,725.06 after rebounding in the previous few days. If there is no increase in volume, there will be a downside risk. The 24-hour trading volume is mainly concentrated between 10,720-11,280 US dollars, and the long and short battles are fierce. If there is no obvious heavy volume, the probability of a short period of time will fluctuate within this range.
The net outflow of BTC's 24-hour funds was 1.107 billion yuan, while yesterday's net outflow was 3.675 billion yuan, a relatively large decrease. Among them, the net outflow of 24 hours of large orders (not less than 300,000 yuan) is 100 million yuan, far greater than the net outflow of Zhongdan (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) and small orders (below 50,000 yuan), indicating the main force. It is still in continuous shipment, but it has decreased compared with the previous day.
The number of BTC yesterday's currency destruction was 33,572,606, which was slightly higher than the previous few days, slightly higher than the historical average. It is not a maximum or a large value, indicating that the whale has no off-site selling action, and the long-term uptrend has not been met. damage. The daily currency destruction numbers here are divided into four categories: greater than or equal to 100 million for maximum values (high probability and large amount of selling), historical days for about 0.3%; 50 to 100 million for larger Value (large probability of large-scale selling), the number of days is about 0.8%; the value of 10 to 50 million is the median (normal in the case of non-mass concentration), the historical days are about 17%; less than or equal to 10 million For smaller values (normal), historical days account for approximately 81.9%.
Next block reward halved countdown: 307 days
Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the BTC chain increased to 672,800, which was significantly lower than the previous day (8.536 million), close to the April average. Today, BTC's total network computing power is 61.18EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (61.66 EH/s), but it is still in a short-term upward trend. At the beginning of July, BTC's valuation relative index MVRV was at 2.53. The short-term imbalance between supply and demand in the market was more serious, and there was a callback demand in the short term. The BTC price has not been adjusted for the monthly level since the bottom of the bear market. The price correction in recent days is in line with the long-term trend. From the historical performance point of view, the current market supply and demand needs a long period of slow upward (3-6 months) or a short-term large correction (1-3 months) to balance.
3. Analyst strategy
Long-term (1-3 years): The long-term line can continue to hold or lighten up, because the real mad cow market has not yet arrived, it is currently a partial adjustment, and can be bargained at around $10,000.
Short-term (January-March): Short-term volatility around $11,000 and a short-term downtrend, which can be bargained at oversold (such as around $10,000) or around effective support.
Short-term (1-3 days): Small positions are fast-forward and fast-moving. If you do not effectively fall below the support level, you can do more dips. At present, the risks are large and the positions are strictly controlled. Resistance is $12,469, support is $10,725, target is $11,597, stop loss is $9,652.5, and take profit is $11,261.25.
Second, the spot ETH market
24H highest: ¥2119.79 24H minimum: ¥2049.69
Yesterday, the price of ETH has dropped rapidly from the rebound high of 324.68 US dollars. The short-term heavy volume bottomed out at 290 US dollars and there is a trend of short-term bottoming again. The 24-hour trading volume is mainly concentrated between 290-300 US dollars. The long-short matchup is still taking place, and the short-term volatility in the range of 280-310 US dollars.
The net inflow of ETH 24 hours was 426 million yuan, while the net outflow was 0.66 billion yuan yesterday, and the net inflow increased significantly. Among them, the large inflow (not less than 300,000 yuan) net inflow is only 41.77 million yuan, while the medium inflow (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net inflow of 297.65 million yuan and small order (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow 12,069 Ten thousand yuan, indicating that the main force has the willingness to open positions, and the short-term downside risks are reduced. The ETH/BTC trading pair has continued to rise since June 29, rising from 0.025 BTC to around 0.027 BTC. Today, there is a relatively small shock adjustment, which is expected to continue upward in the short term. This shows that part of the BTC funds began to transfer to ETH, ETH is expected to emerge from the relatively strong market after the market stabilized.
Currently, the top ten ETH DApp activities are comparable to the previous day. Among them, the number of active users of the trading platform IDEX (1,524) and the total flow of pledges to DAI (4,422 ETH) increased slightly compared with yesterday. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the ETH chain increased to 444,100, an increase from the previous day (391,000), close to the average of three months.
3. Analyst strategy
Long-term (1-3 years): The long-term line can continue to be held. As an intelligent contract platform, the ETH2.0 project is in the process of advancement. It is expected to step out of the independent market in the future and can open positions in the vicinity of about US$300.
Short-term (January-March): Short-term fluctuations around around $300, and after the effective support of the broader market, there is an upward trend, you can bargain at the support level, and break the support to lighten up.
Short-term (1-3 days): Small positions are fast-forward and fast-moving. If you do not effectively fall below the support level, you can do more dips. The current short-selling risk is greater. Resistance is $310, support is $290, target is $300, stop loss is $285, and take profit is $340.
Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.