Analysts believe that BTC will show a "slow cow" market in the coming year, but the middle will certainly undergo multiple adjustments.
According to the HOLD market, on June 27th, the BTC broke through 14,000 US dollars, and after reaching the recent high point, it began to fluctuate and fell. On the morning of July 2, the price of the fire coin BTC/USDT fell below the 10000 USDT mark and is now reported at 9870 USDT, a 4.99% drop in 24 hours.
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Image taken from the official website of the fire currency
After the BTC broke through 10,000 US dollars on Weibo hot search some time ago, the BTC fell below 10,000 US dollars and went to Weibo. Many Weibo users also commented on the BTC's fall below $10,000.
Some people are even less optimistic about BTC because of this big fall: "Friends are still screaming in the past few days, this is a bit embarrassing, or return to industry, although conservative, but be practical"; "Suddenly, it should be renamed Elevator coin." There are also some voices that are still optimistic about BTC: "There is no break below. This is the short-selling of the Air Force's intention to use Sina Weibo. It is just a small US exchange."
More money people are concerned about, how come down again? Shouldn't you get on the bus, why should you fall to the time?
BTC fell suspected callback consolidation
For the reason of this plunge, analysts mostly think that the BTC callback is consolidating.
Firecoin network special analyst Bao Daren analyzed the Odaily Planet Daily. Bitcoin experienced a rapid acceleration in the late June, breaking through the $10,000 mark and hitting the annual level resistance of 13488. The gains above $10,000 were mainly triggered by hot speculation, so the upside could not be sustained for a long time, and there was a huge amount of chips in the annual resistance. The selling pressure became another important incentive for the recent high-level retracement adjustment.
"In addition, from a technical point of view, the strong gains in the second half of June have not fully gained momentum. This round of large-scale doubling of the market, the important resistance breakthroughs are all in monthly units, but 10,000 The important resistance breakthrough above took only a few days. In terms of technical form, compared with the year-end 2017, 10,000 USD broke through the historically highest fanaticism in the history of 19786. The time was extremely compressed, and it was necessary to accumulate and stabilize the trend. Ways to correct the time and space relationship."
“This round of bitcoin decline is a callback to the bitcoin bull market in the previous period,” said Li Lianxuan, a senior researcher at OK Research. In addition, Li Lianxuan analyzed the reasons for the decline of BTC from the technical side:
The picture above is a daily chart of Bitcoin. From a technical point of view, the K line in the KDJ indicator (the blue line in the KDJ chart) breaks down the D line (the red line in the KDJ chart) at the end of June, forming a “death crossing”, which has already signaled a market decline. The K and D lines are not yet below 20, indicating that the market's downtrend is not over yet; from the MACD indicator, the MACD line (the blue line in the MACD chart) crosses the signal line in the morning of July 1 (in the MACD chart) The red line), the market will usher in a signal of a sharp fall, so we observed that the price of bitcoin fell from $11,000 to $10,000 on the night of July 1. At present, the MACD brush map (the red-green histogram in the MACD chart) is still below the 0 line, and there is no significant reversal, indicating that the market decline will continue in the short term until a new reversal signal appears.
Odaily Planet Daily Note: The KDJ indicator is also called a stochastic indicator. It is a fairly novel and practical technical analysis indicator. It was first used in the analysis of the futures market, and was widely used in the short-term trend analysis of the stock market. It is futures and stocks. The most commonly used technical analysis tool on the market.
1Token analyst Panda believes that this round of market, bitcoin from 8000 points to 13900 points, there is basically no callback, accumulated more profitable disk. In addition, the plustoken run has added a shadow to the entire cryptocurrency market, which has hurt investor confidence.
"But, as I said last time, we are in the early days of the bull market. The main feature of the bull market is the skyrocketing and plunging. The current decline is a normal callback. According to the Fibonacci retracement, it is currently at 50%. The next support is around 9600," Panda said.
Token panda COO Shao Yuqi said that the previous rise of BTC was very smooth. If it was the traditional “up-horizontal-up”, it has been bullish, but last week there was a continuous sharp decline. All the long-term indicators were destroyed and needed daily. Level adjustment will re-select the direction, from two weeks to two months.
OKEx chief analyst K Ye believes that BTC's continuous continuous decline in the past, from a technical analysis point of view, is a normal callback. As we mentioned in the previous analysis, the BTC has risen from around 7,000 US dollars this time, and has not experienced a correction correction of more than 30%. According to the OKEx BTC quarterly contract quotation, from the high point of 14460, to yesterday's point of 10329, the decline was 28.56%, which was lower than the historical minimum correction rate of 30%.
From the news level, the impact of the first Sino-US trade war has eased, and international hedge funds have withdrawn from safe-haven assets such as gold, yen, and bitcoin. The stock market has been warmed up by this positive, forming a return of funds and collecting funds for safe-haven assets. The transfer of funds has caused the demand for safe havens such as gold and bitcoin to fall, and prices have fallen. The chart below shows the comparison of daily gold and BTC price charts. From the comparison chart, we can clearly see that the recent BTC price trend and the price trend of gold are extremely similar and synchronized.
Cao Junliang, CEO of Molecular Group, believes that the BTC’s break below $10,000 this time is due to a correction. The $9000 to $10,000 is an important stage for BTC consolidation.
Cai Fei, an analyst at Little Whale, said, “Every big move has a deep pullback, which can explode most of the longs…”,
And for this big drop, Cai Fei thinks that because the big institutions are entering the market, "the big institutions are going to enter the market to find low-priced chips." Cai Fei said.
Cai Fei believes that the BTC will fall by 30% – 40%, and the next wave of corrections is likely to occur after 30 days.
How is the trend of BTC late?
"Technically, the daily line macd is dead, MFI continues to weaken, KDJ enters the oversold area, and now is not a good time to bargain. From a longer period of view, BTC received a long upper shadow line last week, and high volume It is expected that the 13900 points will be high for a long time in the future," Panda said.
Odaily Planet Daily Note: The MFI indicator can also be called the Money Flow Indicator. In March 1989, JWelles Wilder's first published the use of the MFI indicator. The MFI indicator actually evolved after the RSI was modified. The RSI is based on the transaction price ; the MFI indicator combines the price and quantity to include it in a comprehensive consideration. It can be said that the MFI indicator is the RSI indicator of the volume.
K Ye believes, "If it is determined that this round of the Mavericks is over, it is still too early. At the current stage, with the data and information available, it can only be considered as a callback after the continuous rise. Below the important support, we You can pay attention to the price of the 9200 price of the OKEx BTC quarterly contract. There will be signs of a stoppage here. The farther support is concerned with the OKEx BTC quarterly contract near 7461."
"From the daily chart, the current support level is around 10,000 US dollars, and the resistance is around 12,000 US dollars." Li Lianxuan said.
Bao Daren analyzed, "Bitcoin prices have entered an adjustment period in the short term, and the currency demand strategy system has continuously issued a hedging and hedging strategy at a high level. It is expected that July will be the stage of price shocks, and there will be no obvious long-short trend. Support concerns 8843, 9936 US dollars, resistance concerns 11473, 12423 US dollars, the price is based on the Firecoin Global Station."
Based on the halving of Bitcoin in 2020, Cao Junliang is still optimistic about Bitcoin for a long time. In the coming year, BTC will show a “slow cow” market, but the middle will definitely be adjusted several times.
Short-term investment advice
“Investment opportunities may be in recent hot events, such as the founders of TRX and BTT, Sun Yuchen and Buffett, who will have lunch this month, and the BTFS decentralized storage system will also release a test network, suggesting attention.” Panda gave Investors have reference suggestions above.
“Adjusting the period of accumulation, the trend characteristics become invisible, and the investment operation has been dominated by small and medium-sized wave markets. Don’t have no brains to hold the currency, and appropriately allocate positions to ensure the security of the principal and profitable chips in a special stage of accumulation.” Bao Daren advises investors to pay attention to trends.
Li Lianxuan’s advice to investors is more conservative. “In the spot market, it is recommended to be cautious, continue to wait and see, and not to buy temporarily; in the contract market, short-term short-selling with low leverage.”
Cao Junliang's short-term operational advice to investors is that don't worry about opening a position, BTC will have to consolidate in the short term. If you have a position, you can try 20%-30% of the positions in more than 9,000. The medium and long line chiefs are advised not to move. 10,000 points is a strong support level, followed by support at $9000. You can also pay attention to today's daily chart. The daily chart does not stop and it is not recommended to enter the market. Compared with yesterday's daily chart, if the daily chart is low, it is not recommended for investors to enter.
Original article, the authors: the king.
Source: Planet Daily
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Note: This article represents only the author's personal opinion and does not represent Babbitt's investment advice.