Foreword: Libra is the digital currency launched by Facebook and the most important market bomb recently. The Libra that I said is “cool” refers to the heat of the early summer that it brings to the currency circle, and there are obvious signs of temperature deterioration.
However, the market sentiment has subsided, and finally you can sit down and talk about what happened to Facebook with a group of big cattle companies.
- Multi-regulatory artillery fires, Libra finally meets
- Viewpoints | Some "malicious" speculations on how Facebook promotes Libra
- Babbitt column | The most complete analysis: a clear view of Libra panorama
- Advocating China's threat theory, Zuckerberg: Libra will expand US financial leadership
- Libra has become a catalyst for the reform of the mothers? The central bank governor told the reality
- Facebook "Stable Dollar" cooperation node is exposed in advance and will be piloted in more than ten countries around the world.
Hey, don't talk to me about "meaning". This is a high-frequency word in the "cut amaranth" book. The Dodo has a little physiological reaction to the word.
1. Is Libra so hot, is it hype?
Let me start by saying: No, because Libra is a stable currency. How can the currency be stable? Have you seen USDT price fluctuations?
Libra's price is anchored in dollars. When you exchange Libra for $100, 100 Libras are produced. When you change back to the French currency, these Libras are destroyed.
So Libra is actually a mapping of real assets, which is equivalent to the need to mortgage a corresponding asset every time a Libra is released. You can understand that: the previous issue of the US dollar needs to be linked to gold. Every time a dollar is issued, it needs to have the corresponding gold as the support of value. It is a truth.
So, because it is not deflationary currency, Libra's price does not rise and fall like pure virtual currency, there is no room for speculation and necessity.
Facebook sends this coin for the user to use, no doubt. There is reason to think that in the future, Facebook's app will have a one-click purchase of Libra. People who redeem Libra can use the transaction transfer, especially for cross-border payment, which saves time and fees.
So why is Libra not hyping up in the currency?
Except that Facebook itself is a big IP with its own traffic, I think it is not irrational blindness to regard it as a big profit. I am resolutely opposed to saying that Libra is Facebook in order to raise the stock price – although Facebook has a cool trend from the previous "privacy door."
On the contrary, I think Libra is extremely strategic.
The biggest value is to directly increase the popularity and usage of digital currency to a very scary level.
The 45th district has done a very rigorous calculation before: How many coins are there in the world? Others have clouded, and we did an in-depth investigation.
It is estimated that there will be 40 million digital currency users worldwide at that time. I think this calculation is more reliable.
Earlier, we calculated that the number of digital currency users in the world was 40 million. I think this calculation is more reliable.
So how many Facebook users? 2.7 billion. Science, which is only a digital currency, has already made a huge leap. It can be regarded as an exodus of the concept of digital currency.
Any technology that can't get out of the niche is short-lived.
In my opinion, the second value is that it provides a model of "world currency." I used to go to the Southeast Asian shoe factory to work hard and found that the dollar can be used directly as a local currency, but the dollar is still not called the world currency.
Except for a small number of countries (usually their own sovereign currency is very unreliable), normal people will not use US dollars outside the United States. It is generally used in block trading scenes such as petroleum rubber.
Although the euro can travel unimpeded in more than 20 countries, it still has geographical restrictions. Libra relies on Facebook's global user base and, once successful, will be the first currency to truly get out of the country.
If you want to go deeper, if one day, the "world currency" is recognized by enough people, what will happen? Then you no longer need to hook up the dollar, just like the dollar is decoupled from gold.
At this time, a new financial international that has never existed before human beings may emerge.
2. What is the signal released by Libra?
However, the birth of Libra made the Dodo particularly happy that humans can finally "use" the digital currency .
The original 4000w coins were all speculative. But if a technology simply adds an opportunity for speculation to the world, is it still qualified to be called great?
Without any appeal to make human life better, any technology is worthless.
People who are technical and technical are not stupid or bad. You can indulge in technology, but first you should know where the technology goes, and the purpose is to increase the overall happiness of the world.
So, after watching so many projects, I think the most important signal that Libra releases is that digital currency is finally really useful.
It is not speculative (although it seems to have set off a wave of speculation in the currency circle). It has real users and real scenes.
For virtual currency, "real" is just too important.
The second signal is that it has laid a sample of the connection between the old and the new.
Dodo used to talk to a senior executive of an Internet giant. They also thought about using the blockchain to transform the old social ecology model, but ultimately did not implement it because they did not see commercial interests.
This is also the myth of many “old worlds”: Why should transformation and transformation create any direct value?
So for a long time, I think that digital money can only create a new world, parallel with the old world, and provide people with a choice.
For example, you may not like a completely decentralized drop, although you can save a lot of money in the middle, but at the same time you may be mad by the long transaction confirmation time, or you are for a large company. Trust has completely surpassed the trust of a bunch of numbers, and you feel that the hidden cost of learning new things is too high.
The blockchain is for those who are willing to choose a new world.
But I think Facebook and its partners offer another model: as a centralized organization, there is no commercial driving to open up their data moat, so Facebook has not subverted and remodeled the old business, but found it. A balance point, choosing the right consensus mechanism, embedded the new world into the old world.
It does not need to pick up a hammer to smash the past business, but to broaden the existing boundaries. The cost of improvement is always much lower than the revolution.
So we have to say the third value, Libra's birth can also let us jump out of the decentralized trap .
Here is a mention of the business balance that Facebook made when choosing a consensus mechanism. It uses the Byzantine fault-tolerant mechanism. It is controlled by a foundation composed of some big nodes. It does sacrifice some of the decentralized attributes, but in exchange for it. It is an advantage in trading performance.
Is the blockchain necessarily decentralized? Can a project that cannot be purely decentralized be inherently inadequate?
The Dodo doesn't know why it's necessary to entangle pure decentralization. Many geeks may be obsessed with this. My point is: the initial heart is the scale used for self-reflection, and should not be insisted on not forgetting. This is a terrible self-entanglement.
Those who stick to the centralized dogma are likely to think that only bitcoin is pure, but bitcoin positioning is "digital gold", more value storage, and almost no commercial application value.
Why do we have to be decentralized to brainwash? It's time to stand up to a higher dimension. I think that we should start from the well-being of human beings. Can we make our life better? It is far more valuable than the decentralization .
Did the birth of Libra really make life better? Of course, it is still too early to conclude. Today, I saw Zhu Min, dean of the National Finance Research Institute, publicly saying that Libra now has many problems, such as leverage, reserve issues, centrally centralized management systems and mechanisms. It is still at an initial stage, and it is not successful. .
However, in the context of the application environment in the Facebook ecosystem, likes, flowers, and browsing, there are traces of value exchange and flow behind these fragmentation behaviors, which should be included in the scope of “payment”.
If Libra's design advances well, the value distribution of free payment will greatly enhance the creator's happiness, and it can also expand the connection between people .
In the past, cross-border payment was a pain point. If it goes well, this part of the payment can be done by Libra.
On the other hand, countries living in China where mobile payments have completely exploded are likely to be forgotten, and nearly half of the world's population lives in the shadow of the modern financial system.
For example, in Argentina, you want to buy a $1,000 item in the mall, and the whole transaction is cumbersome enough for you to wait for a long time.
The Dodo himself had encountered similar problems in Cuba and wanted to buy a teacup at Hemingway’s former home, but the domestic credit card could not support the deal, because Cuba’s own financial infrastructure was too bad.
For example, a country like Zimbabwe carrying a sack of money to change rice is very common in Africa where the price of French currency is extremely unstable. Their use of Libra is also natural.
The people in these places can therefore reduce the insecurity caused by sovereign currency.
Overall, my perception of Libra is very positive. Although his brain hole is far less open than some air coins, there is no innovation in technology, but because it is a real and reliable application scene, it brings a new atmosphere to the world is very exciting.
3. What opportunities does China have?
Libra itself is still far away from China. Not only is Facebook not available in China, but Libra has obtained the acquiescence of the US government, but it can be expected that China's attitude will be extremely cautious. After all, it is linked to the US dollar.
So, is it possible for China to create a Libra? We can use WeChat to make an analogy. Although the user base is less than half of the total number of Facebooks, the infiltrated user scene spikes Facebook, but because there are not many global users, the important advantage scenario of cross-border payment does not exist.
In addition, the activeness of the digital currency in the payment process will greatly incite the interests of the bank, so I feel that there is currently no soil and genetic reproduction of a Libra in the country.
However, the central bank has been studying the digital currency issued based on the renminbi, and it is possible to make a difference.
The big node of the Libra Foundation is mainly American companies, and the dollar is anchored. Once it is bigger, it is actually strengthening the dollar. Of course, this is not inconsistent with the future of the United States, but at least in the visible time, there is no such possibility, but also need to see the game of various dimensions.
My point is that if China does not attack this aspect as soon as possible, it may lose its leading position in the field of mobile payment, and lose its initiative in the future world currency pattern.
The good news is that I think Zhu Min said this morning: "We should not be too light to the birth of Libra. This will have a big impact on the existing financial system, the monetary system and even the future reserve system."
This fully shows that the top designers in the country attach great importance to the existence of Libra, and the brains and brains will also carefully study the countermeasures.