After reaching a new high of $13,000 in 2019, Bitcoin opened its volatility down mode and fell below $10,000 at noon today. For the sprinter who had previously smashed his thigh, is the decline in Bitcoin a good opportunity to get on the bus?
Perhaps, before getting on the bus, find out why the decline is more important.
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Bitcoin fell below $10,000.
At noon today, Bitcoin added a "perfect" for the shock that lasted for several days – falling below $10,000. Like the previous big ups and downs, Bitcoin once again "likes to mention" Weibo.
Non-small data shows that Bitcoin's lowest offer today is $9,736, a drop of 10.8% in 24 hours. If it starts from the high of $13,826 on June 27, it will fall by more than 29% on the 5th.
Affected by the decline in Bitcoin, major currencies such as Ethereum and Litecoin have experienced different degrees of decline, and the total market value of global digital currencies has also fallen below $300 billion.
At the same time, the long position of the contract market also appeared in the position of the warehouse, the contract Emperor data shows that only from July 2, 12:22 to 12:47, the short burst of more than 20 minutes totaled 46.26 million US dollars, bit The currency burst reached $32.69 million.
"Unreasonable bitcoin, only rises and does not fall."
Previously, when Bitcoin skyrocketed, a group of squatters were ridiculed. Now that they see the plunge of Bitcoin, should the sprinters smile?
Three reasons for Bitcoin's decline
In the view of Mati Greenspan, senior market analyst at eToro trading platform, the decline in Bitcoin is a “positive signal” that “splashes a bucket of ice water into the anxious cryptocurrency market. It really got a little overheated."
If you analyze it, this bucket of ice water may come mainly from three aspects:
1.Plustoken and other funds
On June 29th, some investors reported that the Plustoken wallet could not be withdrawn, and related news about the founding team running, arrested and so on.
According to media reports, Plustoken has absorbed a large amount of bitcoin, and the amount involved is 20 billion yuan.
After the "toocoin first fund" Plustoken violent thunder, the Bell Chain and other fund disk projects have also been sent out to run, for the entire encryption market, these are not small selling and market negative.
The fund game, led by VDS resonance mode currency, has always been regarded as one of the boosting powers of Bitcoin's rise. Nowadays, many funds have violently thundered and run the road, which has played an anti-phagic effect on Bitcoin. As the old saying goes, "When you come out, you always have to pay back."
If the fund disk project was not enough to make the market aware of its risks, then Plustoken told everyone with bloody lessons: In the long run, whether it is for individual investors or the entire cryptocurrency market, the funds are all "rat medicine". ".
2. Risk aversion temporarily reduced
In many people's view, Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset like gold, and its price is affected by risk aversion.
Recently, under the stimulation of good news, the US dollar opened up strongly, and safe-haven assets such as gold and yen plunged, especially gold, which fell by 25 dollars and fell below the 1400 integer.
These data all indicate that market risk aversion is declining, so the decline of bitcoin as a safe-haven asset has become a matter of course.
Expected pressure on Mt.Gox Bitcoin unlocking in March
In addition to the treacherous funds and market risk sentiment, the unlocking of Mt.Gox Bitcoin in August is also a huge pressure for the market to fall.
In some people's view, the end of bitcoin at the end of 2017, the arrival of the bear market in 2018 is not unrelated to the bitcoin sell-off in Mentougou.
There were still 200,000 bitcoins when Mentougou went bankrupt. From December 2017 to June 2018, the custodians of Mentougou sold more than 60,000 BTCs and 59,000 BCHs, and cashed out 616 million US dollars.
At present, there are 140,000 BTCs and 140,000 BCHs that have not yet been put on the market. For the cryptocurrency market, this is tantamount to a time bomb.
As early as March of this year, some media reported that the Mentougou client said in the compensation plan that the compensation will be issued in May-June, and a series of processes such as submitting materials, material review, and compensation plan will take more than two months. Time, so it is likely that in August, 140,000 bitcoins in Mentougou will return to the hands of creditors.
For the 25,000 users of Mentougou, the 750,000 bitcoins they held were only 338 million US dollars five years ago. The total value of BTC and BCH held by Mentougou is nearly 800 million US dollars. For creditors, although the waiting time is long, it has doubled the benefits.
In the opinion of many analysts, after this batch of bitcoin enters the hands of users, it does not rule out that users sell cash. Therefore, for the market in 2019, the 140,000 bitcoins in Mentougou are a huge hidden danger.
July has come, August is approaching, in the face of the possible door-to-head bitcoin selling, the market is inevitably wary.
Looking at the bottom or watching?
For most investors, the biggest concern is nothing more: Bitcoin has fallen, can I get on the bus?
In the opinion of FXstreet analysts, Bitcoin has been under pressure to continue selling. If Bitcoin is unable to recover $10,000, it may fall to $8,600. In addition, some analysts said that the downtrend will continue, and they should not go to the bottom in the short term, nor do they have to do it.
However, in the eyes of some of the strong believers of Bitcoin, it is not too late to buy bitcoin, just to make more difference.
Bitcoin has always been a game of greed and fear. Chasing up and down has always been an insurmountable human weakness. However, in the unpredictable encryption market, in the face of huge price fluctuations, it is king to maintain caution and control risks.