Abstract: After the easing of long and short confrontation, Bitcoin rebounded and rebounded, and the short-term high probability continued to consolidate. The situation tends to change space by time. From the historical performance point of view, the long-term upward trend of crypto assets has not changed; in the short term, the possibility of slow adjustment of BTC and ETH volatility is increasing, but limited downside risks still exist. In a short period of time, the downside space after the rebound of the BTC has increased, and the high probability will fluctuate within the range of 10,000-12,000 US dollars; ETH is waiting for the BTC to stabilize, and the short-term high probability will fluctuate within the range of 290-320 US dollars.
According to QKL123 statistics, on July 3, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 2,216.18 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours was changed to +10.14%, and the total turnover of 24 hours was 671.175 billion yuan. The total turnover of 24 hours was changed to +13.10%. The market value of BTC and ETH accounted for 61.87% and 9.73% respectively. The market share of the former was significantly higher than that of yesterday (60.13%), and the market share of the latter decreased compared with yesterday (9.83%).
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At 13:00, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BTC had the largest increase in 24 hours (+12.84%), and ETH had a 24-hour increase or decrease of +5.37%. The net inflow of 24 hours of the two funds was +22.03 billion. Yuan, + 505 million yuan; BNB's increase is the smallest (+0.11%), its 24-hour net capital inflow is -102 million yuan; EOS 24-hour turnover rate is the highest (53.82%), compared to yesterday (55.57%) The decrease is followed by LTC (51.36%), which is lower than yesterday (55.97%); BNB's 24-hour turnover rate is still the lowest (6.22%), which is an increase from yesterday (4.34%), followed by BTC ( 9.32%), a slight increase from yesterday (9.16%). USDT's 24-hour rise and fall is -0.77%, 24-hour net capital inflow is 0.31 billion yuan, compared with yesterday (0.34 billion yuan), the 24-hour turnover rate is 11.76%, compared with yesterday (6.74%) Increased, the market value (25.56 billion yuan) was slightly lower than yesterday (25.325 billion yuan).
At 13:00 today, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 17,596.12 points, up 24 hours to +10.34%; alternative.me sentiment index was 79, compared with yesterday (63), the market is still extremely greedy. Yesterday, Bitcoin's Baidu search index was 89,345 points, up from the previous day (76,830), significantly higher than the average of the month. Currently, Bitcoin's Google search trend is basically the same as yesterday, still higher than the average of the month.
Analyst's point of view: The overall heat of the market has not decreased, the domestic heat has increased. After the oversold rebound, the risk of shocks still exists, and the short-term operational risk is increased. However, if the heavy volume breaks through the effective resistance level, it will continue to attack in a short time.
First, the spot BTC market
24H highest: ¥79577.47 24H minimum: ¥67992.03
At 17:30 yesterday, BTC began to rebound from 9,725.00 US dollars, the highest upward move to 11,459.00 US dollars, there are signs of steady volume, but the multi-military temporarily suppressed, the direction uncertainty increased, short-term downward adjustment space increased. The 24-hour trading volume is mainly concentrated between 9,700-10,200 US dollars and 11,000-11,400 US dollars. The quantity can start to gather, and the short-term downside risk is reduced. However, if there is no continuous support, the downside risk remains.
At 13:15, the net inflow of BTC 24 hours was 2.20 billion yuan, while the net inflow of -16.00 billion yuan in the same period yesterday was reversed yesterday. Among them, the 24-hour large single (not less than 300,000 yuan) net inflow of 1,406 million yuan, compared with yesterday's net inflow (-50.66 million yuan) increased significantly, the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow of 741 million yuan Compared with yesterday's net inflow (-61.93 million yuan), the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 423.6 million yuan, which was a significant increase compared with yesterday's net inflow (-45.69 million yuan), indicating that the main willingness to open positions is strong. The willingness to ship has been greatly reduced.
The number of BTC yesterday's currency destruction was 10,982,797, which was higher than the previous day (6,300,602), but still lower than the average of the past three months. It belongs to the median of the following categories. The giant whale has no off-site selling action in the near future. The upward trend has not been destroyed. The daily currency destruction numbers here are divided into four categories: greater than or equal to 100 million for maximum values (high probability and large amount of selling), historical days for about 0.3%; 50 to 100 million for larger Value (large probability of large-scale selling), the number of days is about 0.8%; the value of 10 to 50 million is the median (normal in the case of non-mass concentration), the historical days are about 17%; less than or equal to 10 million For smaller values (normal), historical days account for approximately 81.9%.
Next block reward halving countdown estimate: 306 days
At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 60.77EH/s, which is slightly higher than yesterday (59.87EH/s), and the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the BTC chain increased to 896,400, an increase from the previous day (85.36 million), continuing the trend of rising volatility. BTC's valuation relative index MVRV and market value are positively correlated. At present, in a short period of time, the price increase or oversold will make the market supply and demand imbalance worse. From the historical performance point of view, the current market correction space has increased due to price rebound, the market demand for price adjustment is increasing, and short-term operational risks are increasing.
3. Analyst strategy
Long-term (1-3 years): Long-term can continue to hold or lighten up, because the real mad cow market has not yet arrived, it is currently a partial adjustment, you can add warehousing at around $10,000 or about $12,000. .
Short-term (January-March): Short-term shock adjustment, there is a certain downside risk, but the downside is not large, and it can be added when the oversold bargains or the volume breaks.
Short-term (1-3 days): At present, the operation risk is high, you can choose to wait and see, or use the oversold to do more, oversold short positions, you need to strictly control the position. Resistance is $11,500, support is $10,500, target is $11,000, stop loss is $9,800, and take profit is $11,600.
Second, the spot ETH market
24H highest: ¥2074.92 24H minimum: ¥1910.14
Today, the price rebound of ETH is weaker than that of Bitcoin. At present, there are signs of stabilization in 290. However, only the support of subsequent volume energy can reverse the situation of shock adjustment, and there will be a certain increase in demand after Bitcoin stabilizes. The 24-hour trading volume is mainly concentrated between 270-280 US dollars and 290-295 US dollars. The amount of multi-attacks can not be reduced, but the momentum has weakened, and the short-term high probability is oscillating in the range of 290-320 US dollars.
At 14:00, ETH's 24-hour net inflow of funds was 662 million yuan, a significant increase from yesterday's net inflow (0.48 billion yuan). Among them, the net inflow of large orders (not less than 300,000 yuan) was 1.205 million yuan, which was significantly higher than yesterday (104.3 million yuan). The net inflow of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) was 48.67 million yuan, compared with yesterday ( 16.60 million yuan) increased significantly, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 55.59 million yuan, contrary to yesterday's net outflow of 222.26 million yuan, indicating that the main force to actively open positions, small orders are still waiting to see, short-term downside risk is small.
Within 24 hours, with the sharp rebound of BTC, the ETH/BTC transaction has started to adjust from the peak of 0.028BTC and has been lowered to 0.026 BTC. The amount in the downside can be reduced. This shows that part of the funds of ETH is returning to BTC, and the trend of ETH is weakened from strong to strong, but it does not rule out the possibility that BTC will continue to strengthen after it stabilizes.
Currently, the top ten ETH DApp activity has increased compared to yesterday. Among them, the number of active users of the trading platform IDEX (1,473) increased compared with yesterday (1,265), and the total flow of pledges by DAI (8,539 ETH) increased significantly compared with yesterday (4,476 ETH). Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the ETH chain increased to 650,500, which continued to grow from the previous day (53.67 million), higher than the average daily rate in three months.
3. Analyst strategy
Long-term (1-3 years): The long-term line can continue to be held. The ETH 2.0 project, which is a smart contract platform, is advancing. It is expected to step out of the independent market in the future and continue to open positions at around $290.
Short-term (January-March): Short-term fluctuations around 280-340 US dollars, and after the effective support of the broader market, there is an upward trend, you can bargain at the support level, and break the support to lighten up.
Short-term (1-3 days): If you do not effectively fall below the support level, you can go long on dips and the risk of short-selling is still large. Resistance is $310, support is $290, target is $300, stop loss is $280, and take profit is $320.
Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.