Abstract: Bitcoin is short-term and downward, the Air Force has been temporarily suppressed, and the downside risks have been released, but market uncertainty has increased. From the perspective of historical comprehensive performance, the long-term uptrend of BTC has not changed; in the short term, the downside risks of BTC and ETH still exist, and tend to adjust with time for space fluctuations.
According to QKL123 statistics, on July 5, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 2,293.312 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased to -4.77%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 574.113 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed. For -7.31%, market activity continues to decrease. The market value of BTC and ETH accounted for 62.57% and 9.50% respectively. The market share of the former was slightly lower than that of yesterday (62.69%). The market value of the latter was slightly higher than that of yesterday (9.47%). The market risk aversion remained. presence.
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At 10 o'clock, among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BTC had the largest drop in 24 hours (-4.51%), followed by ETH (-3.68%), and the net inflow of 24 hours of the two funds was -25.34 billion yuan, respectively. 336 million yuan; LTC 24-hour rise and fall is -0.33%, its net 24-hour capital inflow is -1.61 billion yuan, EOS 24-hour rise or fall is -3.34%, and its net 24-hour capital inflow is -2.78 billion yuan. USDT's 24-hour price increase was +0.75%, and 24-hour net capital inflow was +55 million yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (0.01 billion yuan). The 24-hour turnover rate was 4.28%, compared with yesterday (5.30%). Decrease, the market value (25.784 billion yuan) increased slightly compared with yesterday (25.105 billion yuan), and the inflow of off-exchange funds increased compared with yesterday.
Today, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 17, 317.84 points, 24 hours up and down -4.46%; alternative.me sentiment index was 76, compared with yesterday (79), but the market is still extremely greedy. Yesterday, Bitcoin's Baidu search index was 73,235 points, which continued to decline compared with the previous day (79,304), but still higher than the average of the month. At present, Bitcoin's Google search trend continues to decline compared to yesterday, but still higher than the same period last month.
Analyst's point of view: The overall heat of the market is slightly reduced, but the level of greed is still high, the risk of shocks is slightly reduced, and the short-term downside is limited.
First, the spot BTC market
24H highest: ¥78883.55 24H minimum: ¥77557.92
In the short-term, the market has further downside, and it is likely to test the US$9,600 again in the short-term. The exchange of time and space is still going on. If the short-term rapid downside, the probability of falling below the previous low of $9,600 will gradually become smaller as the shock time passes; if it can't fall below the previous low, it is likely to stabilize after a long period of around $10,000. The above arguments, the follow-up remains to be observed.
Yesterday, the BTC mainly fluctuated between USD 11,400 and USD 12,000. However, at 07:07, the small volume fell by nearly US$11,000. After a small shock, there was a downward trend in the short-term. The follow-up position must be in the direction of energy. The uncertainty increases. The 24-hour trading volume is mainly concentrated between 11,000 and 11,300 US dollars. The volume can be gradually reduced. The Air Force is temporarily suppressed, but the multi-military momentum is insufficient, and the short-term downside risks still exist.
At 1100, BTC's net inflow of 24 hours was -26.11 billion yuan, a sharp decrease from yesterday (+1378 million yuan). Among them, the 24-hour large single (not less than 300,000 yuan) net inflow -80.43 million yuan, compared to yesterday's net inflow (+70,406), the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow -112.98 million yuan Compared with yesterday's net inflow (+44,3.5 million yuan), the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was -67.57 million yuan, which was a significant decrease from yesterday's net inflow (+230,500 yuan), indicating that short-term market shipments increased.
BTC yesterday's currency destruction was 18.89 million, up from the previous day (11.138 million), but still below the average of the past three months. The whales have no off-market selling action recently, and the long-term uptrend has not been destroyed. The daily currency destruction numbers here are divided into four categories: greater than or equal to 100 million for maximum values (high probability and large amount of selling), historical days for about 0.3%; 50 to 100 million for larger Value (large probability of large-scale selling), the number of days is about 0.8%; the value of 10 to 50 million is the median (normal in the case of non-mass concentration), the historical days are about 17%; less than or equal to 10 million For smaller values (normal), historical days account for approximately 81.9%.
Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 302 days
At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 67.71EH/s, which is higher than yesterday (62.45EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the BTC chain increased to 794,700, which was a decrease from the previous day (83.63 million), which was basically the same as that of the previous month. BTC's valuation relative indicator MVRV has decreased with the price drop, and the market supply and demand imbalance has eased, but the short-term downside space still exists.
3. Analyst strategy
Long-term (1-3 years): Long-term can continue to hold or lighten up, because the real mad cow market has not yet arrived, it is currently a partial adjustment, you can add warehousing at around $10,000 or about $12,000. .
Short-term (January-March): Short-term shock adjustment, the downside risk has eased, but the downside space still exists, and can be added when the oversold bargains or the volume breaks through.
Short-term (1-3 days): At present, the operational risk is high, and the amount of energy can be moved in the direction of the opportunity. Resistance is $12,000, support is $9,777, target is $10,889, stop loss is $9,344, and take profit is $11,550.
Second, the spot ETH market
24H highest: ¥2090.23 24H minimum: ¥2009.14
At 7 o'clock in the morning, ETH fell slightly, but did not fall below 280 US dollars. The Air Force was temporarily suppressed and short-term oversold rebound, but the downside risks still exist. The 24-hour trading volume is mainly concentrated between 280-285 US dollars. The strength and quantity of multi-side rebound can be gradually reduced. The short-term continuation of oversold rebound, but the continued suppression of air force can not be underestimated, the market uncertainty increases, and operational needs Fast forward and fast, choose the opportunity to move.
At 13:00, ETH's 24-hour net inflow of funds was -31 million yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday's net inflow (+512 million yuan). Among them, the net inflow of large single (not less than 300,000 yuan) was -10.68 million yuan, which was significantly reduced compared with yesterday (45.296 million yuan). The net inflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) was -46.92 million yuan. Yesterday (+28,933,000 yuan) decreased sharply, the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was -25.29 million yuan, which was increased compared with yesterday (+17.73 million yuan), indicating that the main willingness to open positions is reduced, and the market willingness to ship has risen. .
At 07:00 today, with the BTC's further downside, the ETH/BTC transaction was relatively strong, rising by 2%. However, after the shock, it was quickly attacked by the Air Force. Short-term ETH trend began to strengthen, if BTC continues to decline, it is likely to continue relatively strong, the real strong again need to wait for BTC to stabilize.
Currently, the top ten ETH DApp activity levels have declined slightly overall. Among them, the number of active users of the trading platform IDEX (1,224) decreased compared with yesterday (1,358), and the total flow of pledges by DAI (2,703 ETH) decreased significantly compared with yesterday (4,821 ETH). Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the ETH chain was 47 million, which was a significant decline from the previous day (5.2269 million), slightly lower than the same period last month.
3. Analyst strategy
Long-term (1-3 years): The long-term line can continue to be held. The ETH 2.0 project of the smart contract platform is in the process of advancement. It is expected to step out of the independent market in the future and open a position at the bargain of 290 USD.
Short-term (January-March): In the short-term continuous shock adjustment, you can increase the position around the effective support level, reduce the position around the resistance level, and confirm the operation according to the trend of the energy.
Short-term (1-3 days): If you do not effectively fall below the support level, you can go long on dips and the risk of short-selling is still large. Resistance is $310, support is $280, target is $300, stop loss is $270, and take profit is $310.
Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.