3G network is accompanied by the popularity of smart phones, 4G network brings out the outbreak of small videos, then what wave will 5G network set up?
Today, operators and mobile phone manufacturers are arranging to seize the track. On the one hand, everyone saw new opportunities, new hardware platforms, new content platforms, and new user bonuses.
On the other hand, this kind of expectation is accompanied by anxiety about the future: users watching videos and playing games on the 4G network have been very smooth, why should they handle 5G? Therefore, how to find real business scenarios and create 5G traffic consumption requirements for users is the primary consideration.
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5G mainly solves two problems, one is the problem of data bandwidth, and the other is the problem of transmission speed. It means that the download speed will be 10-20 times faster, the delay time is reduced to 1/20, the power consumption ratio is reduced by 3 times, and the tariff will be cheaper.
And these cold numbers make the game industry a new explosion.
5G is coming, cloud games are facing the best opportunity
"Cloud games will definitely be the mainstream form of future games." "The 5G-based game industry, the most noteworthy is the cloud game mode."
Recently, I conducted an exclusive interview with Cocos-BCX founder Chen Yuzhi and Laya.One founder Wang Kuo. They tacitly gave the same conclusion: "The most direct impact of 5G is "cloud game", which will be the mainstream of future games. form. ”
The cloud game is to move the game running calculation process to the cloud. The player does not need to download and install the game. It means that the power consumption of the mobile terminal is reduced, there is no need to worry about the configuration of the device, and there is no need to worry about the battery life of the device.
Cloud games are not a new concept. As early as the 2009 GDC Game Developers Conference, OnLive launched the first cloud game "Crysis." Subsequently, nVidia GameStream, PlayStation Now and other cloud game pioneers went on, but cloud games are difficult to popularize, the fundamental bottleneck lies in the network.
"Mainly the problem of bandwidth, the game must output at least 30 frames of data per second, but also to achieve real-time no-calorie, this is a very large amount of data, and our current network can not support it." Wang Kuo said.
In 2019, with the gradual maturity of cloud computing and distributed computing, and the commercial landing of 5G to solve high-latency transmission efficiency and unstable network environment, cloud games are facing golden opportunities in the past decade.
Cloud games are based on the new device platform, and the content carrier will change.
Nowadays, in the mobile game market, the proportion of cloud games is almost negligible. First, there are few companies that provide technology. Second, many games are downloaded directly. In the Wifi environment, it takes less than a few minutes, and users can wait. .
It is true that the main feature of cloud games is to reduce the performance requirements for local devices, but today the performance of mobile phones is very powerful. It is enough to play games like "Glory of the King". What is the reason for players to convert into clouds?
Chen Yuzhi believes that "mobile phones are a very mature ecosystem and do not require cloud games. Cloud games should be based on new hardware devices, such as MR glasses."
However, we can find that these VR/MR head-mounted devices are so tens of thousands that they cannot be accepted by ordinary consumers. In addition to the display function of glasses, it also requires a small box equivalent to computer computing performance. " Under 5G network, all content is transmitted from the cloud, and the terminal equipment can be very cheap . This is the transformation of the infrastructure that we see." Chen Yuzhi said.
In addition, the country has recently developed 8K TV broadcasting standards, which is in line with 5G. We can see that a new operator called "China Radio and Television" appeared in 5G, because traditional fiber and ADSL will be replaced. All video equipment, high-resolution equipment, such as MR glasses, a screen is 4K resolution, they all need 5G level of high-speed bandwidth, low latency support.
"In the past, game makers were selling an Xbox or PS4. In the future, it might be something like a 'blade machine'. There is no screen, just a computing core, and it can access a variety of networks." Wang Kuo said.
In March of this year, Google announced a new game platform called "Stadia" at the GDC Game Developers Conference. It does not have any physical form of host device. "Stadia" is Google's cloud game solution, which can support TV, mobile phones, Tablet… You can jump anywhere on any device.
Google has a product in the United States called Crumbook, which is the same size as a notebook. It is a free operating system with very low performance. But you can play the Ubisoft host-level 3A masterpiece "Assassin's Creed Odyssey", which is what cloud games bring.
The content carrier has changed and the game's operating form has changed.
What changed was the game's running form. For example, the earliest game was a floppy disk, and later it became a CD, a DVD, and a Blu-ray. It was essentially a CD. After that, you can download and install the game on the Apple Store, but in either case, you can only play from the first level in the traditional game, but the cloud game can directly enter any level , which is the feature of the cloud game.
"It uses the browser to play video, just like watching a movie, free to fast forward and rewind, enter any game node." Chen Yuzhi showed me.
When Google demonstrated its own cloud gaming solution, it made a clear scene. When we watched an anchor tutorial on YouTube and mentioned a very fun level, the user can jump directly to this level.
In this way, how does the game allow users to "golden" in the customs?
Wang Kuo believes: "In the future, you don't have to buy a genuine game separately. You only need to pay for it by time, or pay for it according to the occupied bandwidth."
In the past, a genuine game disc of three or four hundred dollars, you will be carefully selected, but in the future may use a rental method, ready to play, plug and play, then you can try all the games. " You can understand it as a huge game hall, you can play as long as you can coin, and you do n't need to move the game console back to your home." Wang Kuo explained.
Another change is the increased interactivity of the game.
For example, eating chicken games, 100 people per game, who can compete to the end. Why is it 100 people? Because of such a complicated game, there are high requirements for each mobile phone, graphics, computing power, network capabilities… When the server has to deal with so much, the data technology structure of today’s games can only be 100 people in the same Under the scene. Even those games that claim to be millions of users are actually split into different service areas.
Under the cloud game, each mobile phone is just a handle, responsible for direction, attack, and data of this manipulation. Then it can accommodate 1 million people or even more. Such a scene is like the virtual city state "oasis" in the movie "Top Player".
"If 1 million people are in a world, it is really a city. The technology under the cloud game can be done." Chen Yuzhi said.
The operating form has changed and the corresponding business model will change completely.
5G spawns cloud games. The biggest advantage of cloud games is the change of running form. For example, the game of rights, from the first season to the eighth season, took eight years. If the game can do this, then you can actually engage users to subscribe and operate for eight years or more by updating the content.
If this is the case, then I only need to pay attention to whether the content is good or not, and pay attention to the user's feedback. Cloud games are great for this approach, just like watching TV dramas today.
"The entire game business model we see today will change radically." Chen Yuzhi asserted.
The business model of traditional games is being deconstructed. 5G, cloud games, blockchain, these new concepts surround, how will the business model of future games change? Chen Yuzhi explained this change to me.
The game industry consists of several basic chains: the first chain is the developer , which is responsible for making the game; the second chain is the game distribution channel , which is responsible for docking users, such as Tencent, 360, Amazon; the third chain is IP holding Fang , they authorize, such as the game of rights, Disney, Jin Yong, starting Chinese network; the fourth chain is the market side , they help the R & D to promote the works, get users, and ultimately generate income.
There are several pain points in the game industry now:
1. For IP holders, the biggest problem is to fake
What is the biggest problem for Japanese people in China? There are too many liars. Always making fake data, with a monthly income of 50 million, and giving us 10 million. Because IP is an authorization fee, such as 10 million license fees, plus 15% of the monthly flow. The Chinese are very smart. I am giving you a set of fake data. I actually earned 50 million but only told you that I earned 10 million.
What are we afraid of? The Japanese are very demanding. If there is a flaw in the IP face, you can never change your position. His requirements are very demanding. The Chinese will feel that you can’t send a Japanese person to stare at me forever. Is it possible that the authorization mode is a very The way of regulation.
2. For developers, user acquisition costs are too high
The game industry all over the world is facing this problem. You want to make a game of eating chicken. The best thing is to let users who have played similar games know and download. But to get such an effective game user on the iPhone, the promotion cost is one hundred dollars.
what does this mean? This means that if you want to get 10,000 users, the promotion fee is 1 million, but only 5% of the 10,000 users will pay, that is, 500 people. Game developers need to earn 1 million with these 500 people. What is the concept? On average, each person spends 2,000 yuan.
So why do you dare to play today's games, because it is very pit, always inducing you to pay, in the final analysis, because the user's acquisition cost is too high.
In addition, there is a pusher behind it. In today's mobile game market, the life cycle of each game is only 3 to 6 months. You have to recover all the costs during this period. IP needs cost, R&D needs, and promotion. Cost, this is terrible.
3. For the entire chain, the market efficiency is really low
In the entire game chain, some places need to spend money, some places are making money, and some places are divided into a more complicated relationship.
For example, as a developer, I license the game to an agent distribution company. The distribution company puts the game on Tencent. During the release process, I have to go to the advertising company to buy traffic. After I earn money, I have to divide it into IP holders.
But today, the settlement between the developer and the publisher is three months, and then the channel is settled by the issuer for another three months, but the promotion is prepaid. If you don't pay, Tencent and today's headlines will not be promoted for you. For the entire business ecosystem, the efficiency is very low.
4. For users, game assets are not protected
In the traditional game market, the biggest problem with trading is that the props are not scarce, and the user's game assets can be eroded at will. Game developers can add extras. If the attributes of any item are recognized by the user and they are more popular, then the developer will increase the supply, so that more money can be earned, so inflation will form and the item will depreciate quickly.
5G+ cloud game + blockchain, an indispensable infrastructure for future games
"We assume that 5G+ blockchain + cloud game mode, a game can run for 10 years, because it constantly provides content, game props are valid for up to 10 years, it has the possibility of trading. What? The system makes them the most suitable for trading? It must be a blockchain. " Chen Yuzhi said that he explained to me in turn how the blockchain solves the above pain points.
First, the blockchain is decentralized. The server needs to be decentralized. The numerical calculation should be transparent, and then real-time settlement is realized to achieve high mutual trust. For IP holders, we can trust that each transaction, use, and authorization of different games are recorded based on the blockchain. These records will not be tampered with and will be public. Moreover, in the blockchain ecology, each bureau is settled immediately after the end of the game, which has a higher efficiency for the flow of funds. The developer can get the settlement in real time and invest in new research and development.
Second, as we just said, cloud games can be played by millions of people in the cloud, and full-server data verification is realized through blockchain technology. Its data is real and reliable, and the developer’s earliest published white paper will Numerical models, as well as assignment rules, are preset. Moreover, in the traditional game, the game is installed locally, the user is easy to cheat, and the plug-in can not be solved now, but the cloud game environment does not have this problem.
Third, the most important is the game ecology based on blockchain. Game users can participate in voting like a node, changing the direction of game development and setting the value of the game. In terms of content experience, it is sustainable. If the life of the game is 10 years, I have the opportunity to let the user participate, and if it is now, the life of the game is only 3-6 months, the user is not involved. necessary. A game that runs for 10 years, it will form a very stable game community, they participate in the decision-making of the game.
Therefore, from the bottom, the operating efficiency of the entire industry has improved. From the middle level, the assetization of the props in the game system has led to a large-scale increase in the volume and profit of the game. At the top level, the change of technology and the change of the platform bring about changes in the form of content, prolonging the life cycle of the game and allowing the whole industry to develop in a healthy way.
"We are very excited about the changes brought by the blockchain, and it may be able to expand the scale of the industry indefinitely." Chen Yuzhi said.
On the other hand, we know that the current blockchain system is distributed, both in terms of processing performance and response performance, there is no way to put the entire game resources into a blockchain system. And you need to rely on a part of it to execute locally. 5G and cloud games may be able to solve this problem.
Kevin, Cocos-BCX's chief technical consultant, said: "Imagine if we can put the whole game on 5G. The cloud server is a super node. It is responsible for the entire game running including image rendering, and the terminal is only used to display images. ""
As a result, the game naturally runs in a secure environment in the blockchain. And I can run renderings on the phone with incomparably complex games, unlike all the blockchain games that now give people the feeling of Kaka, every transaction has to wait a long time, there are many inexplicable restrictions.
10 years later, from "virtual game world" to "virtual world game"
The depiction of the movie "Top Player" may be the ultimate imagination of every game player. Its setting took place in 2047, but Chen Zhizhi believes that maybe within ten years, we can do it.
Chen Yuzhi said that the most ideal state, the bottom layer is the blockchain, the props are on the chain, the users become nodes, participate in the game decision, the game passes the cloud computing mode, directly to the terminal, the terminal is VR/AR glasses, realize the virtual world Build.
From a technical point of view, today's related technologies have all existed, but from a popular point of view, it still takes a long time.
The first is the equipment, today's MR glasses, the price is 26,500, it drops to 1,500 dollars, it takes three years. In other words, at least three years later, such things can become mainstream.
Next is the network. Today, the bandwidth cost and server cost of cloud games are very high. It can be reduced to the price/performance ratio that everyone can accept. It may take 3-5 years.
Furthermore, research and development iterations, mobile games from the elimination of music to the king's glory to go through a process, how can design a sustainable filled game, so that users will always be willing to pay for new content? It also needs to be iterated, first develop a simple version, get success, and then develop the complex version step by step, the national version. Tencent King's glory is in 2017, and Tencent actually began to deploy in 2011, it took seven years.
Chen Yuzhi believes that the popularization of equipment takes 3 years, the cost of network and hardware servers needs to be reduced by 3 to 5 years, and it takes 7 years for the content to be iterated to be accessible to all.
"Maybe at that time, the virtual world is the real world." Chen Yuzhi said.
Open a brain hole, the working environment after 00 is not necessarily a company, and the income obtained is not necessarily legal currency. If he works by co-creating or competing with others in the virtual world; if his income is not a legal currency, but a digital interest. So for him, which one is the real world?
Today, more than 70% of humans are watching computers and mobile phones. In the future, humans may install various sensing devices on their own bodies or wear virtual glasses for more than 70% of the time.
"At that time, you will find that the virtual world is your real world, because it represents your life, I think this day will come sooner or later." Chen Yuzhi thought.