Gemini 2024 Cryptocurrency Trend Report Industry Experts Talk ETFs, Halving, AI, and More

Insights from Industry Experts The 2024 Gemini Cryptocurrency Trend Report Covering ETFs, Halving, AI, and Beyond

Source: Gemini

Compiled by: LianGuaiBitpushNews Mary Liu

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2024 will be a watershed for cryptocurrencies.

1. Bitcoin ETF

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Within one year of the approval of a bitcoin spot ETF, the price of bitcoin will rise by 123%. Based on the historical relationship between the amount of gold held and its returns, the increase in the amount of bitcoin held after approval may drive price activity.

The approval of a bitcoin spot ETF will signify an important milestone in the institutionalization process of bitcoin as an investment. This proves that bitcoin is real, resilient, and will continue to exist.

The approval of a bitcoin spot ETF will allow U.S. investment funds to gain exposure to bitcoin, thereby driving the entry of crypto assets into the $36.7 trillion retirement fund market.

What do you think is the most influential outcome of ETF approval?

James Seyffart, ETF research analyst at Bloomberg:

The biggest impact will be opening up exposure to spot bitcoin in a meaningful way on traditional financial rails. I think it’s the easiest way for advisors and some institutions to get exposure to spot bitcoin. It could also be the preferred tool for individuals seeking bitcoin exposure in tax-advantaged accounts like IRAs. Don’t underestimate the impact of the convenience and efficiency that ETF products can provide.

The biggest potential obstacle (which we think is unlikely) is if the SEC really wanted to, they can still technically deny and delay. Beyond that, we have no visibility into what specific issues or topics the SEC and potential issuers are discussing, but it’s likely focused on the back-end handling of a spot bitcoin ETF. i.e., who handles the actual bitcoin when funds or bitcoin flow into or out of the ETF. There are currently 12 spot bitcoin ETF filings, and a lot of divergence on how each fund will handle this step.

Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck:

The approval of ETFs has become an important symbolic step for Bitcoin to be accepted by mainstream audiences. It’s not normal for a regulatory agency to approve an investment that propels an asset’s price higher, but it’s an important, insurmountable political obstacle that Bitcoin has faced all along.

Amanda Cassatt, CEO of Serotonin and Web3 Marketing writer:

I foresee an influx of institutions, driven by the adoption of ETFs and the launch of stablecoins. The catalyst? Familiar, trusted wealth management institutions privately reaching out to existing clients and promoting the benefits of investing in cryptocurrencies.

What Bitcoin Did host and chairman of Real Bedford Football Club, Peter McCormack:

This year, there is a frenzy of speculation about ETFs, and more and more signs indicate that the SEC will ultimately approve not just one, but multiple ETFs, including those from some of the world’s largest financial institutions. If approved, we may see a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin as institutional funds seek to invest in Bitcoin. ETFs will also create some differences of opinion, with some believing that the increased awareness and number of validators from these institutions are necessary for Bitcoin’s growth. On the other hand, others are concerned that these institutions may exert pressure on the future direction of Bitcoin, while also making Bitcoin highly centralized. The most important thing Bitcoin enthusiasts can do is to ensure that Bitcoin’s fundamental principles are upheld.

2. AI and Cryptocurrency

Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related token prices have significantly increased, indicating growing market interest and confidence.

The intersection of AI and cryptocurrency heralds a new era of possibilities, with the potential to redefine the entire crypto ecosystem.

Both AI and cryptocurrency represent extremely powerful technological capabilities, but they also have unresolved drawbacks. Thoughtful integration of these two revolutionary technologies can pave the way for complementing each other’s strengths and weaknesses.

AI innovation has fundamentally changed smart contracts, supported secure data solutions, created transparent large-scale language models, and fought against misinformation.

Which advancements in the fields of Artificial Intelligence and cryptocurrency do you find most interesting?

Serotonin CEO and Web3 Marketing writer, Amanda Cassatt:

We have observed an increase in projects that combine web3-style monetization, source traceability, and digital content attributes or agents with payment functionality, merging AI and web3 technologies into usable forms. AI’s ability to generate content surpasses human processing capacity, and soon we will default to assuming content is fake and rely on on-chain proofs for verification. In the near future, most payments will be carried out on-chain by AI agents representing people. These agents will interact with the user experience of the blockchain, bundle their transactions, and present them in an understandable way to humans. We also anticipate code auditing companies developing copilot versions for smart contract creators so that AI can assist in verifying the quality of smart contract code during creation (as well as after creation). AI code auditing post-creation is also quite useful. The argument that DeFi protocols are more prone to errors, hacks, and bugs, which is one of the final arguments in favor of CeFi rather than DeFi, will soon become outdated thanks to the assistance of AI!

Bankless analyst Jack Inabinet:

Cryptocurrency + artificial intelligence could be an explosive combination. While early activities were mainly about spreading worthless projects for speculation, the prospects are still huge. There are many exciting things, from AI agents accessing the financial network through the cryptocurrency market, to decentralized computing protocols that open GPU access to everyone, to projects that reimagine blockchain as an AI output market. It remains to be seen which use case will spark initial adoption, but the combination of unlimited freedom in cryptocurrency and the unknown capabilities of AI brings us powerful opportunities in 2024.

Three: Bitcoin halving

The price of Bitcoin has seen parabolic growth after each of the first three halving events. The fourth halving of Bitcoin is expected to occur in April 2024. The upcoming halving will reduce Bitcoin mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, thus reducing the new Bitcoin supply entering the market.

The halving reaffirms one of Bitcoin’s fundamental facts and its greatest value proposition: Bitcoin is predictable, reliable, and trustworthy.

In April 2024, we will witness another great milestone in the lifecycle of Bitcoin.

How will technological advancements and global economic changes impact the market response to the 2024 Bitcoin halving? Do you anticipate it being different from previous cycles, thus indirectly affecting the cryptocurrency industry and the broader global economy?

Investor and author of “Bitcoin: Hard Money You Can’t F*ck With,” Jason Williams:

A potential Bitcoin spot ETF aligns very well with the halving event. Typically, 180 days after halving, there is significant price volatility in Bitcoin. This would align very well with the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF on January 6, 2024, as well as the historical price trend of gold spot ETFs. After approval, gold experienced a parabolic trend after about two years. I believe this event creates significant upside potential. When BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF gets approved, they will need to acquire hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins to meet the demand of their clients. They cannot accumulate that many Bitcoins without significant price fluctuations. This is a core issue they are actively researching, and it is part of my paper on why Bitcoin prices will rise. The 20.76x Bitcoin value equates to $789,000.

What Bitcoin Did host and Real Bedford FC chairman, Peter McCormack:

As we approach Bitcoin’s fourth halving event, all eyes are on mining as this year has seen a significant increase in hash rate. The upcoming halving will reduce block rewards to 3.125 BTC per block, which may put pressure on mining companies’ financial sustainability. However, with the speculation around ETFs and other macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin’s price continues to rise, coupled with the growing demand for block space, resulting in increasing mining revenue. If this growth can be sustained, miners can successfully navigate through the halving hurdle while maintaining strong profit margins.

4. Regulation

Although many regulatory agencies worldwide have made significant progress in regulating cryptocurrencies in the past year, the European Union stands out for its influence in the traditional global markets and the quality and thoroughness of its approach.

In April 2023, the European Union passed MiCA, hailed as the most important crypto regulation to date.

Regulatory regimes hostile to cryptocurrencies not only force innovative participants offshore but also pose a survival threat to the economy amidst the upcoming wave of value creation driven by the AI revolution and Web3 innovations.

In terms of cryptocurrency regulation, the United States is at a crossroads. Law enforcement and regulation have failed to provide the necessary clarity or consumer protection while stifling innovation.

How do you expect the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies to evolve in 2024?

Ji Kim, General Counsel and Global Policy Lead at the Crypto Asset Innovation Council (CCI):

One of the bigger stories in 2024 will be jurisdictions continuing to vie for top-tier status, competing to become key hubs for digital assets and the future financial system. We have already seen this happening between leading nations such as the UK, EU, UAE, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and others, as they continuously compete to have the most trusted regulatory frameworks to attract business growth and innovation. Governments across the world have recognized that cryptocurrencies and their related infrastructures are here to stay. The question now is which countries can solidify their positions as key hubs.

These international developments will naturally start to influence US cryptocurrency policies in a positive manner. Last year, we saw increasing bipartisan support in Congress for establishing regulatory frameworks that foster responsible cryptocurrency innovation. Overall, while the US may be lagging behind a few steps, progress is being made globally, and it’s more a matter of when, rather than if, the US will advance positive cryptocurrency policies. The limitations of law enforcement and regulation are becoming more apparent as the SEC continues to suffer legal losses over time.

Gemini EU Chief Gillian Lynch:

The industry has undergone a battle test over the past year, but cryptocurrency has not disappeared. In fact, as history has shown, the industry is most likely to become stronger if there are necessary safeguards in place to protect all participants. While there may still be differing views on cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, I believe most people would agree that the crypto industry needs a regulatory framework centered around customer protection, while also striking a balance in creating clear and consistent rulebooks that ultimately contribute to fostering innovation.

5. Security

Hackers and scammers will target anywhere money can be found. Crypto and web3 are no exceptions.

Attackers will find new and constantly evolving ways to gain access to wallets and accounts. Unphishable multi-factor authentication (MFA), such as keys and Yubikeys, will become indispensable for Web3 companies and customers to ensure asset security.

The security industry will shift more focus towards Web3 security tools and protection. Some of these will become tools for security professionals, such as Web3-focused Security Orchestration Automation and Response (SOAR) and detection platforms. Consumers will also see new tools and technologies to protect their Web3 accounts and assets, bringing decades of Web2 security advancements to Web3.

More resilient security measures, such as advancements in phishing detection, represent some of the biggest opportunities in the industry. The cryptocurrency security field will be one of the fastest-growing areas in the coming years.

The Web3 industry is working to develop security frameworks, guidelines, and best practices. Last year, Gemini collaborated with other industry leaders to create REKT Test, a tool that blockchain companies can use to assess whether their projects include basic safeguards and adhere to best practices for access control, key management, and security against other hacker attack vectors.

What are the most common threats? What is your outlook for 2024?

Gemini Chief Security Officer Khaja Ahmed:

In recent years, significant personal information of most consumers has been stolen in countless large-scale hacks against corporations. Criminals are trading social security numbers, email addresses, physical addresses, credit card numbers, credit profiles, medical histories, and more. This enables scammers and fraudsters to launch more targeted and sophisticated attacks, increasing the challenge of protecting consumers from financial losses. Consumers must become more aware of the impending types of scams, and service providers must be more vigilant in detecting if their customers’ accounts have been hijacked by attackers.

Gemini Cloud Security Director Shaun Blackburn:

We are starting to see classic impersonation attacks evolve as generative AI, like ChatGPT, makes it easier than ever to write phishing emails and even generate realistic deepfake videos of anyone, leading to new scams where attackers use available tools to manipulate users into surrendering their access privileges. Even so, I am extremely excited about the progress the industry is making in the area of keys because it provides a simple and accessible security solution for everyone. This simple protection can greatly enhance security.

Sixth, New Trends

What trends do you expect to be the focus of people in 2024?

Angel investor and The Network State author Balaji:

A sovereign debt crisis is happening, it’s just not widely recognized yet. The parallel global financial system becomes even more important if we don’t have a replay of 2008 without “parachute measures.”

Reflexivity Research co-founder Will Clemente:

Bitcoin will be consolidated as an institutional-grade global macroeconomic asset.

Pudgy Penguins CEO Luca Netz:

I believe 2024 and beyond will be the year of consumer-facing cryptocurrency brands, as I believe it’s the next necessary step towards mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies. The industry needs to shift the narrative from economic gains to narratives around digital ownership and accessibility. I believe consumers facing the cryptocurrency revolution will be key in reshaping this narrative.

Crypto investment KOL Lady of Crypto:

The past 15 years have been a warm-up; now, now is the time for major action. Mass adoption is here, and with it, we’ll see a lot of Web 2 giants entering the crypto space. I think games will be the first breakthrough area decoupled from Bitcoin. Games already had basic digital currencies and collectibles before cryptocurrencies came along; the combination of blockchain and gaming is inevitable.

Azuki researcher Wale Swoosh:

I think gaming will be one of the defining trends of 2024. In terms of cryptocurrency adoption, games have always been and will forever be a great Trojan horse. Gaming is an area where the advantages of cryptocurrencies are easy to understand and explicit. I firmly believe that the Web3 gaming trend we’ve seen at the end of 2023 will not only continue next year but become even more pronounced.

1% Better founder Alex Finn:

I believe that in 2024, cryptocurrencies that unlock experiences will generate value. People will be less willing to spend money on purely speculative assets. They will first ask, “What can this token unlock for me? Will it give me an advantage in online gaming? Will it allow me access to elite communities? How will this token improve my life?” We’ve been in cryptocurrency development for 10 years now, and the actual products behind these tokens will ultimately emerge.

O Show host Wendy O:

I’m very excited about cryptocurrencies in 2024. I truly believe the emerging trends we’ll see are Bitcoin, Bitcoin ordinal, BRC 20 tokens, and GameFi (the ability to truly own the assets you purchase in games), as well as RWA. I think being able to own IRL assets and NFTs is crucial, and ordinal solves this problem. NFTs are an ordinal that allows people to own their assets—just as Bitcoin allows people to have control over their money.

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