Grasping the Wealth Code of a Bull Market How to Select Projects through Traffic?

Unveiling the Secrets to Success in a Bull Market Choosing Profitable Ventures Through Analyzing Traffic Patterns

Author: Willow Shocking, Wiseman Notes

In the Web3 community, the basic cycle is based on the Bitcoin halving period, with more than three years in a bear market and only one year in a bull market within a four-year timeframe. The bull market often reaches its peak in price within just one or two months. Therefore, the investment strategies and mindset for bear markets and bull markets are completely different. Having been involved in the Web3 community for six to seven years, I have summarized my two core experiences to share with you.

During a bear market, it is important to invest in technology-driven and profit-oriented projects. Projects with direct income have a higher chance of surviving the bear market, while projects without income are likely to experience slow death.

During a bull market, it is advisable to invest in marketing-oriented and market-driven projects. Bull markets are short, not allowing enough time for technology-oriented projects to slowly develop. Exchanges also prioritize projects with high traffic, but traffic-oriented projects require quick entry and exit.

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Now let’s explain the logic behind this. Technology-driven projects are those that are constantly expanding their ecosystem based on technological advancements. Taking a single protocol as an example, like Uniswap, they continuously update their versions to achieve a more perfect form of AMM (Automated Market Making). On the other hand, non-technology-driven competitors essentially fork Uniswap V2 and have no technological updates, but rather focus solely on token economics. Looking at the entire ecosystem, Cosmos is an example. They use the IBC (Inter-Blockchain Communication) protocol as the infrastructure to enable customization of blockchains. Currently, many popular projects newly listed on Binance, such as Neutron and Celestia, are based on Cosmos IBC as Layer1.

Profit-oriented projects are easier to understand as they generate direct income. The ideal situation is when the income covers the expenses of the project. Through platforms like DefiLlama, you can directly see the protocol revenue of numerous projects. Currently, Maker DAO ranks first with a protocol revenue of 500,000 USD in the last 24 hours. Readers with experience in stock investments would undoubtedly understand the importance of company revenue in valuation judgment. If a project has zero returns during a bear market, while the project’s token continues to be released and circulated, it will inevitably fall into a spiral of slow death. Of course, project teams will actively seek “white knights” like venture capitalists to solve their predicaments through financing.

In a bull market, it is necessary to pay attention to marketing and market-oriented projects, as traffic remains the key. In the past, whether it was memes or inscriptions, as long as there was sufficient traffic, exchanges would rush to list the projects. This is because the core asset of an exchange is its users, and the number of users determines the future of an exchange. Therefore, during a bull market, it is important to set aside biases and focus on projects that put effort into marketing.

Selecting projects during a bull market can also be guided by certain indicators. The definition of a bull market is simple: when there is a frequent occurrence of wealth creation within a period of time, it indicates a bull market. Wealth creation is closely related to traffic, and in the history of Web3, you will hardly find a project that has not attracted traffic but still silently became a myth of wealth creation.

Therefore, the core of bullish market screening must revolve around “traffic”, so we track the traces of bullish market projects based on this point.

Trace 1: Low entry barriers and easy ways to participate. This is currently being confirmed. Bitcoin Mingwen track is gaining momentum. Unlike previous investment projects that required off-market purchases and private equity investments, Bitcoin Mingwen can be directly minted and distributed. In previous bullish markets, there have always been different forms of concretization. In the last DeFi summer bullish market, LaunchLianGuaid played such a role, and in the previous wave, ICO played such a role. Although each concretization takes different forms, its essential core is a tool that captures traffic by reducing investment barriers.

Trace 2: Exchanges are starting to scramble for listings. Generally, exchanges are very cautious about new listings, but in a bullish market, they start to scramble for listings due to the fear of missing out on traffic and losing users. Once an exchange starts listing a project, it is highly likely that competitors in the same track will also be contested.

Trace 3: Cross-language market marketing is booming. This point may be a blind spot for many as language barriers limit most people to only paying attention to Simplified Chinese news, which is often circulated numerous times. Heat transfer also has a delay. Projects that are hot in the US may not be known in the Simplified Chinese market until ten days or half a month later. Therefore, cross-language regional hot projects are likely to be potential stocks. A recent typical case is that many insiders had no idea about AVAX’s popularity in Turkey before the Istanbul Blockchain Week. Many people also did not know that the sector’s increase in the first half of November was actually driven by the enthusiasm of Korean cryptocurrency users. Therefore, the essence of Trace 3 is to capture potential projects that already have heat but have not been transmitted to the Simplified Chinese market by utilizing information gaps.

Lastly, the content I share is not the key to wealth, but a summary of experiences to increase the probability of acquiring wealth. Specific investments still need to be combined with personal understanding. That’s all for today’s sharing. If it is helpful to you, I hope you will like, follow, and share.

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