Crypto Market Weekly Overview (10.21-10.27) Cryptocurrency Market Cap Soars, Is a Frenzied Bull Market Just Around the Corner?

Cryptocurrency Market Recap 10/21-10/27 - Market Cap Surges, Indicating a Potential Bull Market on the Horizon

A. Market Perspective

1. Macro Liquidity

Monetary liquidity is tightening. Faced with macro and geopolitical uncertainties, risk aversion in the market is rising, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is nearing the 5% mark. The US dollar index is on the rise, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle is still far away, with no hike expected in November, but a higher probability of a rate hike in January next year. US stocks have been continuously falling, hitting the lowest point in six months. The crypto market is surging, with a weakened correlation with the US stock market, showing an independent trend from the annual high.

2. Overall Market Trends

Top 100 market cap gainers:

• Weekly Preview | Celestia may go live on mainnet on October 31; OP will release tokens worth about $33 million on October 30.
• Detailed Explanation of RWA Asset Tokenization Sorting out the underlying logic and implementation path for mass adoption
• a16z evaluates the regulation of Web3 in the United States The regulatory situation is much more optimistic

This week, BTC skyrocketed, and the market has become more optimistic about the approval of a spot ETF. Altcoins have seen a general increase, with hotspots revolving around public chains and meme concepts. The market automatically chose the path of least resistance, focusing on non-ETH-related public chains such as SOL, MINA, CFX, KUJI, etc. These chains have fewer hidden funds and are easier for market manipulators to drive up. On the other hand, ETH-related Layer 2 projects such as ARB and OP have been avoided by speculative funds due to the accumulation of funds during the Kan-Kun upgrade. At the same time, the on-chain activity is starting to revive, and many new meme coins are emerging, signaling the upcoming meme season. Value investors prefer to invest in public chains, while retail investors prefer to invest in emotional meme coins. Everyone has a bright future ahead.

1. PEPE: The team recently burned $7 million worth of tokens, giving a sense that there will be further action. PEPE’s weekly chart has broken through, with high trading volume and high market recognition. Meme coins tend to have characteristics like 10x price drops followed by 10x increases, making it suitable to buy when breaking new highs and breaking integer levels. Other meme coins like Harry Potter bitcon and joe coin have also seen several-fold increases.

2. MINA: A lightweight ZK public chain listed on the South Korean exchange upbit. Recently, there has been a clear expectation effect on coins listed in South Korea, with many of them experiencing several-fold speculative gains, such as POLYX, CYBER, etc.

3. TRB: A domestic oracle project with little fundamental strength. Recently, the price broke through $100 and saw a speculative rally of over 10x. Several major addresses hold 30% of the shares, making it a typical stock manipulated by market makers. Similar coins include BLZ, INJ, etc., so be cautious of potential short squeezes.

3. BTC Market Trends

1) On-chain Data

80% of BTC holding addresses are in profit. From the trading volume on Binance, it can be observed that this is the second highest level since the end of zero fees in April. As the market approaches the high point of the year to date, a large percentage of holding addresses have transitioned from losses to profits.

The total market cap of stablecoins remains stable and slightly rising. In the past week, the market cap of USDT, which is the dominant trading asset, has increased by over $630 million, reaching a total market cap of over $84 billion. As long as the trend can be sustained, the market can recover from the bottom.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the overall market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is above 6, it is in the top range; when the indicator is below 2, it is in the bottom range. MVRV dropping below the key level of 1 indicates that holders are generally in a loss position. The current indicator is 1.03, entering the recovery phase.

Cryptocurrency investment products have seen net inflows for four consecutive weeks. The recent influx of funds may be related to the news of the launch of a BTC spot ETF in the United States, with a total amount of funds reaching $66 million. SOL saw an additional $15 million in inflows last week, making it the most popular altcoin so far this year. Concerns about ETH resulted in outflows of $7 million, making it the only altcoin to experience outflows last week, which is in stark contrast to SOL.

2) Futures Market

Funding rate for futures: This week’s rate is positive, indicating that the main institutions choose to go long. Rates range from 0.05% to 0.1%, with more long leverage, indicating a short-term market top; rates from -0.1% to 0%, with more short leverage, indicating a short-term market bottom.

Futures open interest: This week, the total open interest for BTC has surged, following the price increase. Mainstream funds are entering the market with a positive outlook for the future.

Futures long/short ratio: 0.9. Retail investor sentiment leans towards short positions. Retail investor sentiment is often a contrarian indicator, with a reading below 0.7 being more indicative of panic, and a reading above 2.0 being more indicative of greed. The long/short ratio data is highly volatile, reducing its significance as a reference.

3) Current market conditions

BTC breaks annual high. The shorts are being liquidated one after another, quickly driving the BTC price from $30,000 to $35,000 within a few hours. On the news front, BlackRock’s spot ETF is preparing for listing. Technically, BTC has held above the BOLL weekly line at $28,000, indicating continued upward momentum. The RSI indicator is at 85, entering overbought territory, suggesting short-term market sentiment is greedy, so watch out for potential pullback risks. BTC’s market dominance has reached 53%, and 55% is an important level. If it falls below 55% in the future, altcoins may rotate for more opportunities.

B. Market Data

1. Total locked-in volume on public blockchains

2. Proportion of TVL on various public blockchains

This week, the total value locked (TVL) increased by nearly $500 million, a growth of almost 13%. Last week, after breaking through multiple layers of resistance, BTC reached a price close to $36,000. Although this bottom bounce has brought unlimited possibilities and hopes to the market, it is still uncertain whether the bear market is coming to an end. This week, TVL on the Ethereum chain increased by nearly 15%, ARB chain increased by 9.2%, OP chain increased by 6.8%, TRON and POLYGON chains both increased by more than 10%, and the SOLANA chain increased by over 20%. Except for a 1.3% decrease in the BASE chain, all other mainstream public chains saw an increase.

3. Locking Volume of Various Chain Protocols

1) ETH Locking Volume

2) BSC Locking Volume

3) Polygon Locking Volume

4) Arbitrum Locking Volume

5) Optimism Locking Volume

6) BASE Locking Volume

Fourth, ETH Gas Fee Historical Situation

The on-chain transfer fee is about $2.43, Uniswap transaction fee is about $8.27, and OpenSea transaction fee is about $3.21. This week, the gas usage and transaction fees have significantly increased. In terms of gas consumption, Uniswap is leading the market, accounting for 12.82% of the total market. The market rebound at the bottom has brought signs of recovery and potential for on-chain applications.

Fifth, NFT Market Data Changes

1) NFT-500 Index

2) NFT Market Situation

3) NFT Trading Market Share

4) NFT Buyer Analysis

This week, the floor prices of top blue-chip projects have risen and fallen. BAYC and MAYC have both risen by over 5%, with Azuki experiencing a 15% increase and CloneX and AOI Engine both rising by over 20%. Yawanawa, which rose by over 50% last week, has seen a decline of over 30% this week. In the past week, there has been a significant increase in NFT market trading volume, but the number of repeat buyers and first-time NFT buyers continues to decline. There are no clear signs of recovery in the NFT market due to the market rebound at the bottom.

Sixth, Latest Project Financing Situation

Section Six: Post-Investment Updates

1) Xterio – Blockchain Gaming Publisher

Xterio introduces Xterio Marketplace:

1: Designed for global gamers: This marketplace is specifically designed for gamers worldwide.

2: Competitive fees and professional creators: The marketplace offers a competitive fee structure and attracts professional creators.

3: Supports cryptocurrency and fiat currency: This marketplace supports transactions using both cryptocurrency and traditional fiat currency.

2) SLianGuaice Nation – Gamefi

The Alpha 2.0 10 vs. 10 test by SLianGuaice Nation concluded on October 24th.

3) Lifeform – DID

Visual DID project Lifeform announces the launch of the new section Lifeform Premium, aiming to empower Lifeform DID. The first phase will feature the Polyhedra Legend Games card draw event.

Lifeform Premium will offer special benefits to users who hold Lifeform NFTs, including a higher allocation rate for IEOs, airdrops from premium projects, and priority access to collaborative NFT purchases.

4) SLianGuaiceID – Infrastructure

SLianGuaiceID has supported Binance in launching the Binance Oracle service, which is set to be released by the end of the month. The oracle will retrieve price data from centralized exchanges, aggregate it, and provide signed data to on-chain oracles using threshold signature schemes.

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