QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin and long-term adhesive, the altcoin does not follow the rise (0808)

Abstract: Bitcoin is mostly in the vicinity of 12,000 US dollars. It will continue to oscillate for a short period of time, and it is more likely to continue to move upwards in the near future. The altcoin currency does not follow the rise, the short-term market risk aversion does not decrease, and the long-term shock uptrend remains unchanged.

According to QKL123 statistics, on August 08, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 21,645.48 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +1.95%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 440.693 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed – 5.97%, 24-hour market activity has decreased. The market value of BTC accounted for 68.73%, a slight increase from yesterday (68.01%), and the market risk aversion continued to rise.

At 12 o'clock, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BNB increased the most in 24 hours (+8.85%), BTC rose by +3.10% in 24 hours, ETH rose by -0.41% in 24 hours, LTC rose in 24 hours – 2.16%. The USDT rose by +0.29% for 24 hours, with a 24-hour turnover rate of 2.68%, and a slight increase in 24-hour off-exchange capital inflows.

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The Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 16113.75 points, up 24 hours to +1.04%; alternative.me sentiment index was 61, which was significantly higher than yesterday (45), and the market performance changed from fear to greed. Today's Bitcoin's Google search trend has dropped slightly from yesterday, which is basically the same as yesterday.

Analyst's point of view: Bitcoin was tied around the $12,000 mark yesterday, and the altcoin did not follow the rise, and the market risk aversion did not diminish. In the short term, it is difficult to reverse the situation. In the short term, the BTC will continue to adjust for shocks.

First, the spot BTC market

The previous day's BTC heavy volume attacked 12,000 US dollars and the volume dropped downwards. In a short time, a "door" was drawn. The painting "door" of "the old tricks replayed" yesterday, the current upward quantity can dominate, but it tends to converge in a short time. In the four-hour k-line, the trend of the extended MA20 shock has not been destroyed. At the same time, combined with the daily MACD indicator, it is more likely to continue the upside in the near future.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 2,435,416,800 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 88.466 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 1,026.9 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 97.876 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 5,515.16 million yuan. The market is mostly dominated by medium orders and large orders.

2. Fundamentals

Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 264 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 73.88EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (74.87EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 805,500, which was lower than the previous day (85.86 million), higher than the average of a month. Today's currency-day destruction was 10.41 million (historical normal), which was lower than yesterday (205.518 million), and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday ETH followed the BTC to re-attack up to $230, but the trend was weak, and the ETH/BTC trading pair continued to drop, from 0.0195 BTC down to a new low of 0.0188 BTC.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 1994.29 million yuan, a decrease from yesterday (276.406 million yuan). Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 19.1746 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 10,879,800 yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The outflow of 103.591 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 174,435,800 yuan. The market is mostly built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the 24-hour total flow (6,920 ETH) pledge by DAI increased or decreased by -7.57% compared with yesterday, and the 24-hour total flow (1,848 ETH) of the trading platform IDEX increased or decreased by -0.98% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour active user of the game encryption hero The number (2,284) increased or decreased by +0.00% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour transactions (1,673) of the stable currency Paxos Standard increased or decreased by +0.78% compared with yesterday.

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC weakly linked BTC, the amount of short-term downturn can gradually shrink, the lowest to reach 88 US dollars. The LTC/BTC trade was further down, from 0.0080 BTC to 0.0075 BTC, the trend was weak.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 30.082 million yuan, a decrease from yesterday (184.549 million yuan). Among them, the large inflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 19.46 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 52.459 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 799.68 million yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 71.07 million yuan. There are big differences in the market, and most of them are built in small orders.

2. Fundamentals

At present, LTC's total network computing power is 381.59 TH/s, which is significantly lower than yesterday (441.85TH/s), which is close to the low point of a month. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 79,600, an increase from the previous day (84,700), higher than the average of a month. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (116 million, a large historical value), significantly increased from the previous day (439.474 million), there is a certain risk of selling pressure in a short time, but has little effect on the long-term trend of LTC.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

Yesterday, EOS continued to fluctuate between $4 and $4.5, with a minimum of $4, and the downward volume continued to shrink. At 00 am today, the EOS/BTC transaction hit a new low in the year, and although it has rebounded, it tends to continue to bottom out.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 145.09 million yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (517.765 million yuan). Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 443,700 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 4,690,200 yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Inflow of 1989.90 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 12005.80 million. The market is mostly built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment games Texas Hold'em (1,267) increased or decreased by +0.24% compared with yesterday, and the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment games Trust Dice (1,064) increased or decreased by -0.84% ​​compared with yesterday; 24 hours of trading platform DEXEOS Total running water (113,125EOS) increased or decreased by -2.62% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the short-term partial adjustment stage. The mad cow market may come in the next one to two years. The BTC trading of the intelligent contract platform ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the lowest point in the year. At present, the weak BTEC can be properly configured on the dips to take the opportunity of reversal.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term shocks adjust the situation, all kinds of encrypted assets can be bargained at the bargain-hunting or rallies.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term BTC continued to oscillate and adjust, with bargain-hunting as the mainstay, resistance at $12,000 and support at $11,000.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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