QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin shock convergence, short-term callback risk is greater (0809)

Abstract: There has been a certain callback demand after the recent surge. Recently, the bitcoin volatility tends to converge, and the possibility of short-term change is increasing. The short-term bitcoin shocks adjusted the situation unchanged, and the long-term shocks and upward trend were not destroyed.

According to QKL123 statistics, on August 09, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 2,146.262 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by -0.54%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 402.476 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed – 8.06%, 24-hour market activity has decreased. The market value of BTC accounted for 68.92%, a slight increase from yesterday (68.73%), and the market risk aversion continued to rise.

At 12 o'clock, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), ETH has the largest increase in 24 hours (-3.73%), BTC rose by -0.30% in 24 hours, LTC rose by -1.47% in 24 hours, and EOS rose by 24 hours. -1.57%. USDT's 24-hour up/down +0.14%, 24-hour turnover rate of 2.35%, 24-hour off-exchange capital inflows increased slightly.

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The Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 15968.78 points, up 24 hours to -0.75%; alternative.me sentiment index was 60, which was basically the same as yesterday (61), and the market performance was greedy. Today's Bitcoin's Google search trend is dropping faster than yesterday, approaching a seven-day low.

Analyst's point of view: The short-term BTC shock converges, while the altcoin trend is weak, and the possibility of a change is increasing. If there is no continuous support from the news, there is a certain callback demand in recent days.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, the BTC oscillated around 12,000 US dollars, the amount of energy and amplitude showed a tendency to converge, and the possibility of short-term change was increasing. From the perspective of the daily line, it is more likely to continue to attack in the short term, but the space for the callback after the recent surge will still exist. If there is no continuous support from the news, it is likely to sway downwards in a short time.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 270,423.58, which was an increase from yesterday (243,541,800). Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 482.526 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 133.97 million yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 64,137,600 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 25,223,440 yuan. The market is dominated by large single positions.

2. Fundamentals

Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 264 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 75.19EH/s, which is higher than yesterday (73.88EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 814,800, a slight increase from the previous day (809,500), higher than the average of a month. The number of currency days destroyed yesterday was 10.9711 million (historical normal value) slightly higher than the previous day (104.139 million), and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday, ETH was weak, and the small upside did not touch 230 US dollars and then fell rapidly. It was short-term support around 216 US dollars. The ETH/BTC transaction has hit record lows, from yesterday's low of 0.0188 BTC to a new low of 0.0181 BTC. There is no release of energy and it will continue to bottom out.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 34,414,400 yuan, a decrease from yesterday (276,406,800 yuan). Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 11.7543 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 338,949,500 yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The outflow of 80.303 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 73.02 million yuan. The market is mostly built with large orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly. Among them, the 24-hour total flow of pledge by DAI (7,178 ETH) increased or decreased by -0.03% compared with yesterday, the 24-hour total flow of the trading platform IDEX (2,307 ETH) increased or decreased by +4.50% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour active user of the game encryption hero The number (2,190) increased or decreased by +0.46% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour transactions (1,366) of the stable currency Paxos Standard increased or decreased by -0.36% compared with yesterday.

Third, the spot LTC market

Yesterday, LTC weakly linked BTC, and the amount of the downside continued to shrink. Today it dropped to $88 again. In a short period of time, the LTC/BTC trading pair rose slightly and then fell to the low of 0.0075 BTC, which was weak.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 184,744,700 yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (300.826 million yuan). Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 115.095 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 3,802.87 yuan, and the net inflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) The net inflow of 337.17 million yuan and small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 104.073 million yuan. The market is dominated by small singles.

2. Fundamentals

At present, LTC's total network computing power is 342.42 TH/s, which is significantly lower than yesterday (381.59TH/s), which is close to the low point of two months. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 89,300, an increase from the previous day (79,600), close to a one-month high. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (3,385,400, historically normal) was significantly lower than the previous day (116 million), and the risk of short-term selling was reduced.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

In a short period of time, EOS continued to fluctuate in the range of $4 to $4.5, and tested the $4 support again. In the early hours of the morning, the EOS/BTC trading volatility near the low point, the amount of energy tends to shrink, and the possibility of bottoming is greater.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net inflow of funds today was 80,890,100 yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday (14,509,900 yuan). Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 46.623 million yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 7.5788 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. Inflow of 45,280,900 yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 3,305,100 yuan. The market has great differences, but most of them are built with large orders and medium orders.

2. Fundamentals

Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Texas Hold'em (1,236) increased or decreased by -0.24% compared with yesterday, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment games Trust Dice (1,066) increased or decreased by -0.19% compared with yesterday; 24 of trading platform DEXEOS Total hourly water (134,887 EOS) increased or decreased by -2.22% from yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the short-term partial adjustment stage. The mad cow market may come in the next one to two years. The BTC transaction of the intelligent contract platform ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS has a new low for the year, and can be properly configured on the dips to take the opportunity of reversal.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term shocks adjust the situation, all kinds of encrypted assets can be bargained at the bargain-hunting or rallies.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

The short-term BTC shock convergence is just around the corner. Resistance is $12,000 and support is $11,000.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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