QKL123 market analysis | Today's altcoin currency is slightly stronger; related theme chain on the chain under the gambling (1014)

Abstract: Short-term bitcoin has a slight correction, and the altcoin is slightly stronger, driving the market to pick up slightly. Today, the related topic of the increase in the search volume of gambling into bitcoin is also one of the main applications of the blockchain. Although there are still many shortcomings in the current blockchain application, there will be an opportunity for the blockchain application to break out in the future.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 14, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,629.111 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +0.16%, the total turnover was 351.701 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by -0.13%. Market activity has slightly decreased. Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BSV had the largest decline in 24 hours (-1.06%), and XRP had the largest increase in 24 hours (+3.36%). The Babbitt Composite Index reported 11596.52 points and rose to +0.28% in 24 hours, reflecting a slight rebound in the broader market.

The Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 92.92 points, and the 24-hour rate was -1.47%, indicating that the relative performance of Bitcoin in the whole market was weaker; the Alternative sentiment index was 37, slightly lower than yesterday (38), and the market sentiment remained fear. The USDT has risen and fallen to -0.13% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 205,530,300 yuan, which is lower than yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index is reported at 101.31, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.42%.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 88) has rebounded from the previous value (peak 73), lower than the median of a month. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (48), South Africa (43), Switzerland (38), Austria (36), Germany (35) and Cyprus (33). In related topics, the online search volume of online casinos ranked first. In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 64) rebounded slightly from the previous value (peak 63), approaching a one-month low.

Analyst's point of view:

Based on features such as anonymity and decentralization, encrypted assets such as Bitcoin continue to penetrate the gaming industry. Blockchain-based gambling can be divided into two types: under the chain and on the chain. Under-chain gaming, mainly based on the traditional Internet (involving some physical casinos), this type of gaming accepts cryptocurrency (based on bitcoin) as a payment method for direct or indirect (through a third-party custodian for currency exchange) of a casino account. The gambling on the chain is based on the decentralized application of the public blockchain, and the relative gambling is more secure and private.

At present, gambling on the chain has a tendency to replace online gambling under the chain, and gambling remains one of the main applications of cryptographic assets. For example, about 20% of DApp projects based on Ethereum and Yuzu's 24-hour visitors are about gambling. In addition to the gaming industry, there are mainly blockchain games and decentralized finance (Defi), but there are no “killer” like Alipay or WeChat, or the use of technical features such as blockchain to penetrate into traditional industries. "Phenomenon-level" blockchain application. In the future, with the development of related technologies (blockchain, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, etc.) and the growth of demand (currency non-nationalization, data privatization, information value, etc.), it is believed that the application of blockchain will break out. period.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, the BTC hit a maximum of 8,450 US dollars and then fell back slightly. The short-term downward insertion of 8160 US dollars, the current shock around the 8300 US dollars, short-term range shocks.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 753.065 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 69.468 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 14324.10 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 411.960 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 12.84 million yuan. The market is mostly net outflows.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 95.70EH/s, which was slightly higher than the previous day, close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 487,700, which is less than the previous day, close to three. The low point since the month; the trading volume on the chain was 362,300, which was lower than the previous day, which was the low point in the past month; the number of coins destroyed in the day was 1,360,600 (historically smaller), which was lower than the previous day. The upward trend has not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

Recently, ETH has fluctuated within the range of US$178 to US$184. The amount of energy has been shrinking, and there is a possibility of a sudden upward attack. The ETH/BTC trading pair has a slight upward trend and is currently around 0.022BTC, showing a short-term performance.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 34.876 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 20,924,300 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 6,969,300 yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The outflow of 82.306 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 2756.10 million. There is a big difference in the market, with a net outflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp dropped significantly. Financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 2.4k, 24-hour change -6.54%; game application My Crypto Heroes 24-hour active users 1.9k, 24-hour change -33.18%; trading application ForkDelta 24-hour active users 367 , 24 hours change +9.55%.

Third, the spot LTC market

Yesterday, the short-term LTC draws a "door" word, and the LTC/BTC has a small amount of upward insertion of 0.00689BTC, which has not broken through the recent highs. Short-term slightly strong, there is the possibility of power up.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 55.336 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 3.791 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 1429.43 yuan, and the net outflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 3744.63 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 35.904 million yuan. There are major differences in the market, with net outflows of small orders and medium orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 262.86TH/s, which was slightly lower than yesterday and was close to the low of six months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power will decline and it will take some time to recover. However, if the continuous innovation is low, there is a risk of stamping. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (53,100) was slightly lower than the previous day, close to a one-month low; the transaction volume on the LTC chain (85.12 million) was lower than the previous day, hitting a new low in the month; the number of coins destroyed in the day (5.3428 million, The historical value is smaller, which is less than the previous day, and the long-term trend has not been destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

Today's EOS performance is slightly stronger, and it is currently approaching $3.1. It will be a short-term attack.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 87,169,100 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 78.0 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 6,564,200 yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 45.204 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 43.185 million yuan. The market has mostly net inflows of small orders and medium orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has declined. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 2.9k, which is -4.26% compared with yesterday. The trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users is 1.4k, which is 6.60% change from yesterday; the quiz application Dice's 24-hour active users is 1.5k. Yesterday's change was -14.31%; the number of 24-hour active users of the data application Lumeos was 1.2k, which was +0.26% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS faucet EOS is close to the low of the year and can be configured separately.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin is near the 200-day moving average, and it is more likely to make a short-term bottom-up.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Not yet out of the wide range of shocks, wait and see.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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