Viewpoint The Next Stage After BTC Breaks $40,000

Outlook The Next Step as BTC Surpasses $40,000

Original Author: Rui, HashKey Capital Source: X@YeruiZhang

Looking back at Chang’an, embroidered heaps, doors on the mountaintop open one by one (December 4th)

It’s been two weeks since I wrote a weekly report. Work is so busy, everything is a blur of year-end arrivals and departures, but luckily the market is good and we’ve had some gains after Bitcoin hit 40k. Let me share my views on the next stage.

1. ETF as a trend is already settled, but the news has already been mostly priced in. Since Bitcoin’s momentum weakened after reaching 35k for the first time on October 24th, we’ve speculated for a few weeks whether the ETF would be approved before Thanksgiving, and then the market continued to fluctuate. It wasn’t until the CME OI skyrocketed before and after Thanksgiving that the market started rising again (CME still has a premium to this day). This recent rally is even more interesting because it happened outside of CME trading hours, with CME gapping up. According to the logic of filling the gap in 2021, this is actually a point of resistance. CME, rather than Binance, became the driving force behind the market. Personally, I believe it’s important to observe real-time data and position reports from CME, although there may be a delay, it is still an excellent reference indicator. At this point, the market is similar to December 2020-January 2021, it’s highly likely that there will be some unexpected events. The key is whether there will be any new expectations. If not, I think there will be a wave of corrections in December. But in terms of operational strategy, we should focus on the height of Bitcoin after approval, that is, the daily level of operations mentioned earlier (this depends on personal monitoring time and risk preference, if risk preference is low, I think we need to consider the risk before and after Christmas, or even earlier).

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2. Most altcoins have not surpassed the heights of the 38k wave, but a batch of non-consensus targets have emerged, such as Ordi, Luna, and so on. Just as I previously concluded that within ETH DeFi and AI, AI is also driven by non-consensus target, Tao. The targets Wld and Rndr inside the exchanges are not as strong. If I’m wrong, I’ll admit it. Here, Alpha may be a non-consensus target in the big narrative, even within the 1-10M targets on-chain. CT has mentioned many specific targets, most of which are good. Just do your research well. I know too much about the project, including their black history, which leaves me feeling helpless. Lastly, I can’t really handle Bitcoin ecology/calligraphy. Can you please explain it to me?

3. As for the market of ETH and ETH derivatives, my expectation is that it may become more direct after the ETF is approved and before the Cancun upgrade, of course, this does not rule out the possibility of BTC taking over after a wave of corrections at the end of December. The specific targets, after Ldo’s high staking rate, LDO gradually became a unique element in the ETH ecosystem, which weakened its legitimacy. Here, it depends on whether the orthodox RPL+OP or the non-orthodox LDO+ARB perform better after the launch of ETH. Personally, I’m buying into the non-orthodox.

4. We should gradually start paying attention to the effects of new coins (note that it’s not the newer coins on Binance), many new targets from Flip to Gate/Mexc (the platform coins are performing well) are good. Generally, at this point, there will be several top-level IDO projects on the chain.

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