BTC approaches $38,000 again, is it the end of a bull run or the beginning of a new one?

Bitcoin Reaches $38,000 Once Again Is it the End of the Bull Run or the Start of a New One?

“Kezhou Qiujian” predicts the future market, is it accurate or not?

Author: Loopy Lu

Yesterday, the fluctuation of Bitcoin fully reflected the volatility of the cryptocurrency market.

After a period of intense fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin once fell to $34,471 within a day, but quickly rebounded. According to OKX Euro Ya Market, Bitcoin has been rising rapidly since early this morning. The highest price of Bitcoin reached $37,867, just a stone’s throw away from the $38,000 mark.

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In the past week, Bitcoin has risen by 6.3%. This is another attempt to break through the $38,000 mark after a short-term breakthrough last week.

ETF window period is about to end, will the good news come true?

In the past week, every major rise has been accompanied by significant positive news (regardless of the truth of the news).

In the early morning of November 9th, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart wrote that the Bitcoin ETF has officially entered the approval window period. Theoretically, the SEC can approve any existing 12 spot Bitcoin ETF applications during the period from November 9th to November 17th. “I published a new research today. We still believe that there is a 90% chance of approving spot Bitcoin ETF applications before January 10th.”

This positive news stimulated a rapid rise in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin consecutively breaking through three integer levels of $36,000, $37,000, and $38,000.

On November 14th, the US CPI data was announced, and the October unseasonally adjusted core CPI year-on-year rate was 4%, with an expectation of 4.1% and a previous value of 4.1%. The US CPI is lower than expected, hitting a new low since July. The improvement in CPI data further raises market expectations for an end to interest rate hikes. The improvement in fundamentals has also brought some volatility to the cryptocurrency market.

However, yesterday evening, we did not see any significant progress regarding ETFs or economic data. Nevertheless, market volatility will still occur unexpectedly.

Although Bitcoin performed well, Ethereum is still slightly “falling behind”.

The OKX market display shows that after experiencing a rise overnight, Ethereum has not yet reached $2100. In the last “positive” occurrence, Ethereum sharply rose and reached $2136.

Previously, Ethereum’s strong performance was mainly influenced by BlackRock – disclosed document information shows that BlackRock registered an Ethereum trust in Delaware, with the registered entity named ISHARES ETHEREUM TRUST. This positive news for Ethereum allowed it to achieve a more advantageous increase.

However, today’s exchange rate shows that ETH/BTC is gradually declining and the positive momentum from BlackRock ETF has not continued to the present.

Currently, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is hovering around 0.55, a decrease of 5.6% from the peak during the “ETF positive” period.

SOL is one of the most noteworthy tokens in this rise. Currently, SOL is above $65 and has reached a high of $67.13. SOL has shown exceptionally strong performance recently, rising 66% since November and reaching a new high since May 2022.

Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the crypto market has liquidated $145 million. Among them, short positions liquidated $111 million, and long positions liquidated $145 million. BTC was liquidated for $60.16 million, ETH for $20 million, and SOL for $14.99 million.

The end of the bear market or the beginning of the bull market?

The rise early this morning is not just a lack of stimulation from the news, but rather the market even has some not-so-positive news.

During the night Beijing time, the SEC postponed Hashdex’s application to convert its existing Bitcoin futures ETF into a spot ETF. The SEC also postponed Grayscale’s attempt to launch an Ethereum futures ETF. This means that another potential positive news has been delayed. The market has lost two major positive news that could have been realized in the short term.

But looking at on-chain data, market sentiment is still extremely high. On-chain data shows that the number of addresses holding at least 0.1 BTC has reached 4.5 million, a historical high. In addition, the chart showing BTC held for over a year without movement for at least 1 year has exceeded 70% for the first time.

Charlie Morris, the founder of investment consultancy firm ByteTree, stated in today’s market report that Bitcoin is becoming mainstream and the bear market is over, the “golden age” is here. ByteTree emphasizes the strong performance of BTC compared to traditional assets such as US stock indices and gold, which are also constantly rising. Morris points out that Bitcoin’s trend is strong not only in terms of the US dollar but also relative to other major assets. This is crucial for institutions because they will not invest in alternative assets unless there is some additional return. Morris also notes that after two harsh years of the crypto winter, altcoins are gaining strength as market breadth improves.

Early pioneer in the field of commodity hedge funds, Peter Brandt, recently published an article on social media, pointing out that the price of Bitcoin may continue to rise. He has drawn a head and shoulders formation for Bitcoin, and according to his predictions, the interim bottom target for Bitcoin is $35,135, and the high point target is $41,341. If the rectangular pattern in the chart is confirmed, the price of Bitcoin is expected to hit $43,000.

Of course, some investors have issued warnings that thecurrent sentiment in the cryptocurrency market may be overheated.

Filbfilb, co-founder of DecenTrader, believes that Bitcoin could reach $46,000 to $48,000 by the time of the halving, but there may be a pullback before that. In addition, Glassnode data also shows that the number of whale wallets holding over 1,000 bitcoins has dropped to the lowest level in nearly a month, indicating that some big players may have sold out during the recent strong market.

From the perspective of “chasing swords with boats” and finding patterns in history, whenever the cryptocurrency market enters a period of transition from bull to bear or vice versa, we usually first encounter a “mini bull market” before a significant correction, which signifies the start of a new bull market cycle. However, when looking back at the cryptocurrency market trends this year, I am also deeply puzzled – at which point are we in the current bull and bear cycle?

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