Cryptocurrency Market Weekly Summary (11.11-11.17) Continuous net inflow of funds, BTC ecosystem remains hot

Bitcoin Market Report (11/11-11/17) Constant Influx of Funds and Booming BTC Ecosystem

A. Market Perspectives

1. Macro Liquidity

Monetary liquidity is loosening. The October CPI data in the United States was lower than expected, reaching the lowest level in two years, consolidating the market’s expectations that the Fed has completed its rate hikes, with more than 50% likelihood of rate cuts by June 2024. The US dollar index fell on a weekly basis, while the US stock market rose. The performance of the cryptocurrency market outshined the US stock market.

2. Overall Market Situation

Top 100 market capitalization gains:

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This week, BTC consolidated its adjustment, and capital risk preference gradually shifted to altcoins. The market focus revolves around BTC inscriptions, public chains, and newly listed stocks. Newly listed stocks have a good chip structure and usually ferment in the later stages of the market. Large funds speculate on public chains, and the SOL and Cosmos ecosystems (KUJI, TIA, RUNE, INJ, etc.) have relatively outstanding performances. Retail investors with small capital speculate on BTC inscriptions, showing significant wealth effects with gains of tens of times.

1. TIA: This year, the theme of the ETH ecosystem is modularity and data availability. TIA is part of the Cosmos ecosystem and is currently used for ETH modularity. TIA’s chip washing is quite thorough, with airdrops fully released, and staking requires a 21-day unlocking period. Therefore, it has a small circulating supply and is suitable for market manipulation.

2. FTT: FTT is the platform token of the FTX exchange. There are expectations in the news that the FTX exchange will reopen in the second half of 2024. The bankrupt FTX exchange holds a large amount of SOL and FTT, which may provide motivation for a rally before selling off.

3. DYDX: Originally on the ETH chain, it later moved to the Cosmos ecosystem to build its own trading public chain. The mainnet test version was recently launched, and staking for dividends is available. However, in December, there will be a large unlocking of $600 million, which is about double the circulating supply. This may lead to a positive rally before the unlocking, providing liquidity for institutional investors to exit.

3. BTC Market Situation

1) On-Chain Data

BTC miner revenue has surged. BTC inscriptions have made a strong comeback in the past month, pushing transaction fees to a six-month high. There are over 150 days until the next halving event, which is expected to occur at the end of April 2024.

The market cap of stablecoins has started to rise for the first time in nearly two years. After hitting bottom, it has risen by 1% for several weeks in a row. New liquidity continuously flows into the market, driving a more prosperous market and a general rise in altcoins.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost, reflecting the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is in the upper range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is in the lower range. MVRV has fallen below the key level of 1, indicating that holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 1.2, entering the recovery phase.

Cryptocurrency investment products have seen continuous net inflows for 7 weeks, with the total inflow surpassing $1 billion. Institutional interest in the crypto market may see significant growth in 2024.

2) Futures Market

Funding rate for futures: The rate was positive this week, indicating a strong bullish sentiment. After reaching the highest rate of the year for BTC on November 12, the market started to adjust. A rate of 0.05-0.1% indicates a bullish sentiment with a higher leverage, indicating a short-term market top; a rate of -0.1-0% indicates a bearish sentiment with a higher leverage, indicating a short-term market bottom.

Futures open interest: The total open interest for BTC saw a slight increase after adjustment, largely synchronized with price fluctuations.

Futures long/short ratio: 0.7. Retail investor sentiment is bearish. Retail investor sentiment is often a contrarian indicator, with values below 0.7 indicating panic and values above 2.0 indicating greed. The data for the long/short ratio is highly volatile, so its usefulness as a reference is diminished.

3) Current market situation

The market remains strong, with BTC hitting new highs after a consolidation. The confirmation of the end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle has led to a continuous influx of new funds into the cryptocurrency market, fueling the prosperity of altcoins. The BTC spot ETF for November may be postponed, and its actual approval could potentially exhaust its positive impact.

B. Market data

I. Total Lock-up Volume of Public Chains

II. TVL Distribution of Various Public Chains

This week, TVL decreased by around $300 million, a decline of approximately 0.7%. The overall market experienced a significant drop, which was quickly recovered. BTC attempted to break through $38,000 again but was unsuccessful. This week, TVL on the ETH chain increased by nearly 14%, while TVL on the SOLANA chain increased by over 17%, experiencing a total increase of more than 81% in the past month. There was a 4% and 5% increase in TVL for the OP chain and ARB chain, respectively. Major public chains saw increases of over 10%.

III. Lock-up Volume of Various Chain Protocols

1) ETH lock-up volume

2) BSC lock-up volume

3) Polygon lock-up volume

4) Arbitrum lock-up volume

5) Optimism lock-up volume

6) Base lock-up volume

Fourth, ETH Gas Fee Historical Data

The on-chain transfer fee is about $29.62, Uniswap transaction fee is about $15.35, and OpenSea’s transaction fee is about $5.96. This week, gas usage and transaction fees have risen sharply. In terms of gas consumption, Uniswap still occupies the top position, accounting for 12% of the entire market.

Fifth, NFT Market Data Changes

1) NFT-500 Index

2) NFT Market Situation

3) NFT Trading Market Proportion

4) NFT Buyer Analysis

This week, the top blue-chip projects’ floor prices experienced both increases and decreases, with BAYC rising by 1.2%, The Captainz falling by 14%, and CloneX falling by 9%. It is worth noting that Sofa Maker rose by 2854% in the past week, nearly 30 times its value. The NFT market experienced a significant decline in trading volume, but there was a moderate increase in the number of repeat buyers and first-time NFT buyers. The NFT market continues to be sluggish, with no signs of recovery.

5) Latest Financing of Projects

6) Post-Investment Updates

1) Mocaverse – NFTAnimoca Brands’ NFT series Mocaverse announced that the third phase of Moca ID Mint will start at 3:00 Eastern Time on November 16th, without the need for reservations, and all eligible users can forge “.moca” domain names. 2) Shardeum- Layer1

Shardeum tweeted that Sphinx Validator 1.7.2 is offline, and developers are currently investigating the root cause. They plan to restart the network and conduct additional checks and repairs this week. Node operators should shut down their nodes until the new version is released.

7) Other Relevant Information

1) Foresight Ventures acquires the majority stake of The Block at a valuation of $70 million. Foresight Ventures announced the acquisition of the majority stake in the cryptocurrency media company The Block, with a valuation of $70 million. The Block will continue to operate as an independent business and maintain its existing business lines. As part of the acquisition, Forest Bai, CEO of Foresight Ventures, will assume the position of Chairman of The Block’s board of directors. In addition, Foresight Ventures partner Tony Cheng will also join The Block’s board of directors. Larry Cermak will continue to serve as CEO of The Block.

Foresight Ventures will enhance The Block’s unique advantages and aims to expand its influence while ensuring the integrity of its editorial and research teams. The acquisition is complete and will help Foresight expand its media business into the US and European markets, while providing The Block with the necessary funds to enter the Asian market and expand its product portfolio. 2) BGX announces the subscription of HKD 710 million for the parent company of OSL, BC Technology Group. Cryptocurrency group BGX has made a strategic investment in BC Technology Group, the parent company of the licensed virtual asset exchange OSL, by subscribing to approximately HKD 710 million in new shares. This transaction is pending approval by shareholders.

Earlier reports stated that BC Technology Group, the parent company of OSL, halted trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and applied for a temporary suspension of the trading of its shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, pending the company’s announcement regarding the issuance of new shares (which constitutes insider information).

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