Gemini 2024 Cryptocurrency Trend Report Spot ETFs, Halving Cycles, AI and Cryptocurrency Integration…

Unveiling the Future of Cryptocurrency A Comprehensive Report on Gemini 2024 Trends in Spot ETFs, Halving Cycles, AI, and Its Integration with Cryptocurrency

Source: Gemini

Compiled by: LianGuai BitpushNews Mary Liu

2024 will be a turning point for cryptocurrencies.

1. Bitcoin ETF

Within a year of the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, the price of Bitcoin will rise by 123%. Based on the historical relationship between the amount of gold held and returns, the increase in Bitcoin holdings after approval may drive price activity.

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The approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF will mark an important milestone in the institutionalization process of Bitcoin as an institutional investment. This proves that Bitcoin is real, resilient, and will continue to exist.

The approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF can enable U.S. investment funds to acquire Bitcoin, thus driving the entry of crypto assets into the $36.7 trillion retirement fund market.

What do you think is the most influential outcome of ETF approval?

Bloomberg ETF research analyst James Seyffart:

The biggest impact will be the effective opening of exposure to spot Bitcoin on traditional financial tracks. I believe that for advisors and some institutions, this is the easiest way to access spot Bitcoin. For individuals seeking Bitcoin investments in tax-advantaged accounts such as IRAs, it may also be the preferred tool. Do not underestimate the impact of the convenience and efficiency that ETF products can provide.

The biggest potential obstacle (which we think is unlikely) is that if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission really wants to, they can still technically deny and delay. Aside from this, we cannot determine what issues or topics the SEC and potential issuers are discussing, but it is likely to focus on the back-end processing of spot Bitcoin ETFs. That is, who will handle the actual Bitcoin when funds or Bitcoin flow in or out of the ETF. There are currently 12 spot Bitcoin ETF filings, and there are many differences in how each fund will handle this step.

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck:

The approval of the ETF has become an important symbol of Bitcoin being accepted by mainstream audiences. It is not normal for regulatory agencies in the United States to approve an investment that drives up asset prices, but this will be an important and insurmountable political obstacle-which Bitcoin has always faced.

Serotonin CEO and Web3 Marketing writer Amanda Cassatt:

I foresee a surge in institutional adoption driven by ETFs and the growth of financial institutions launching stablecoins. The catalyst? Familiar, trusted wealth management institutions reaching out privately to existing clients, promoting the benefits of investing in cryptocurrencies.

What Bitcoin Did blog host and Real Bedford Football Club Chairman Peter McCormack:

This year, ETF speculation is widespread, and there are increasing signs that the SEC will ultimately approve not just one, but multiple ETFs, including those from some of the world’s largest financial institutions. If approved, we may see a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin as institutional funds seek to invest in Bitcoin. ETFs will also cause some disagreement, with some people believing that the increased awareness and number of validators from these institutions are necessary for Bitcoin’s growth. On the other hand, others are concerned that these institutions may exert pressure on the future direction of Bitcoin, while also centralizing Bitcoin’s capital. The most important thing Bitcoin enthusiasts can do is to ensure that Bitcoin’s fundamental principles are upheld.

2. AI and Cryptocurrency

The significant rise in prices of AI-related tokens indicates a growing market interest and confidence.

The intersection of AI and cryptocurrency ushers in a new era full of possibilities, with the potential to redefine the entire crypto ecosystem.

AI and cryptocurrency both represent incredibly powerful technological capabilities, but they also have unresolved drawbacks. Thoughtful integration of these two revolutionary technologies can create a path to complement each other’s strengths and weaknesses.

AI innovations have completely transformed smart contracts, supporting secure data solutions, enabling transparent large-scale language models, and combating misinformation.

Which advancements in the fields of AI and cryptocurrency do you find most interesting?

Amanda Cassatt, CEO of Serotonin and Web3 Marketing writer:

We have observed an increase in projects that combine web3-style monetization, source tracing, and digital content attributes or agents with payment functionality. AI has the ability to create content beyond human processing capacity, and soon, we will default to assuming content is fake and rely on on-chain proof for verification. In the near future, most payments will be conducted on-chain by AI agents representing people. These agents will interact with the user experience of the blockchain, bundle their transactions, and present them to humans in an easily understandable way. We also anticipate code auditing companies developing copilot versions for smart contract creators, so AI can assist in verifying the quality of smart contract code during creation (not just post-creation). AI code audits post-creation are also valuable. One of the final arguments for supporting CeFi over DeFi is that DeFi protocols are more prone to errors, hacks, and faulty arguments, which will soon become outdated thanks to the help of AI!

Jack Inabinet, Bankless analyst:

Encryption + Artificial Intelligence could be an explosive combination. While early activities were mainly spread to hype up worthless projects, the prospects are still huge. From AI agents accessing the financial network through cryptocurrency markets, to decentralized computing protocols that provide open GPU access to everyone, to projects that reimagine blockchain as an AI output market, there are many exciting things happening. Which use case will spark initial adoption remains to be seen, but the unlimited freedom of cryptocurrencies combined with the unknown capabilities of AI present us with powerful opportunities in 2024.

Three: Bitcoin Halving

The price of Bitcoin has seen parabolic rises after each of the previous three halving events. The fourth halving of Bitcoin is expected to occur in April 2024. The upcoming halving will reduce the mining reward for Bitcoin from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, thus decreasing the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market.

The halving reaffirms one of Bitcoin’s fundamental facts and its key value proposition: Bitcoin is predictable, reliable, and trustworthy.

In April 2024, we will witness another great milestone in the lifecycle of Bitcoin.

How will technological advancements and global economic changes impact the market reaction to the 2024 Bitcoin halving? Do you expect it to be different from past cycles, thus indirectly affecting the cryptocurrency industry and the broader global economy?

Investor and author of “Bitcoin: Hard Money You Can’t F*ck With,” Jason Williams:

The potential Bitcoin spot ETF aligns perfectly with the halving event. Typically, 180 days after a halving, there is significant volatility in the price of Bitcoin. This would align well with the possible approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF on January 6, 2024, as well as the historical price trend of spot gold ETFs. Gold experienced parabolic trends about two years after approval. I believe this event creates a significantly elevated real potential. When BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF gets approved, they will need to acquire hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins to meet the demand of their ultimate customers. They cannot accumulate that many Bitcoins without significant price fluctuations. This is a core issue they are actively researching and is part of my paper on why the price of Bitcoin will rise. A 20.76x increase in Bitcoin’s value equals $789,000.

What Bitcoin Did podcast host and Real Bedford Football Club Chairman, Peter McCormack:

As we approach the fourth Bitcoin halving event, all eyes are focused on mining because the hash rate has significantly increased this year. The upcoming halving will reduce the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC per block, which could put pressure on the financial sustainability of mining companies. However, driven by ETF speculation and other macroeconomic factors, the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, coupled with the growing demand for block space, resulting in increasing mining revenue. If this growth can be sustained, miners can successfully navigate the challenges of the halving while maintaining strong profit margins.

4. Regulation

Although many regulatory agencies around the world have made significant progress in regulating cryptocurrencies over the past year, the European Union stands out for its influence in the traditional global markets and the quality and thoroughness of its methods.

In April 2023, the European Union passed MiCA, hailed as the most important cryptocurrency regulation to date.

Regulatory regimes hostile to cryptocurrencies not only compel excellent participants to go offshore, but also pose a survival threat to the economy as the next wave of value creation emerges with the advent of artificial intelligence and Web3 innovation.

In terms of cryptocurrency regulation, the United States is at a crossroads. Enforcement regulation has failed to provide the necessary clarity or consumer protection while stifling innovation.

How do you expect the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies to develop in 2024?

Ji Kim, General Counsel and Global Policy Director of the Cryptocurrency Innovation Council (CCI):

One of the bigger stories in 2024 will be jurisdictions continuing to vie for top positions, competing to become key hubs for digital assets and the future financial system. We’ve seen this already in countries like the UK, EU, UAE, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and more – leading nations are continuously competing to have the most trusted regulatory frameworks to attract business growth and innovation. Governments around the world have recognized that cryptocurrencies and their underlying infrastructure will continue to exist. The question now is which countries can solidify their positions as key hubs.

These international developments will naturally begin to impact US cryptocurrency policy in a positive way. Last year, we saw bipartisan support in Congress for establishing regulatory frameworks to foster responsible cryptocurrency innovation. Overall, while the US may be lagging behind a few steps, progress is being made globally, and whether or not the US will advance positive cryptocurrency policy development is more a question of time rather than if. Given the ongoing legal defeats suffered by the SEC, with time, this necessity will become more apparent, highlighting the limitations of enforcement regulation.

Gillian Lynch, head of the European Union at Gemini:

The industry has gone through a tough year, but cryptocurrencies haven’t disappeared. In fact, as history has shown, if there are some necessary guardrails to protect all participants, the industry is most likely to become stronger. While there may still be differing opinions on cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, I believe that most people would agree that the crypto industry needs a regulatory framework focused on customer protection, while striking a balance in creating clear and consistent rulebooks, ultimately helping to foster innovation.

5. Security

Hackers and scammers will target any place where they can find money. Crypto and web3 are no exceptions.

Attackers will find new and evolving methods to access wallets and accounts. Unphishable multi-factor authentication (MFA), such as keys and Yubikey, will be indispensable for Web3 companies and customers to ensure asset security.

The security industry will shift more attention to Web3 security tools and protection. Some of these will become tools for security professionals, such as SOAR (Security Orchestration, Automation, and Response) and detection platforms focused on Web3. Consumers will also see new tools and technologies to protect their Web3 accounts and assets, bringing decades of progress from Web2 security into Web3.

More resilient security measures, such as advancements in phishing detection, represent some of the biggest opportunities in the industry. Careers in crypto security will be one of the fastest-growing fields in the coming years.

The Web3 industry is working hard to develop security frameworks, guidelines, and best practices. Last year, Gemini collaborated with other industry leaders to create the REKT Test, a tool that blockchain companies can use to assess whether their projects include basic safeguards and adhere to best practices for access controls, key management, and security against other hacking vectors.

What is the most common threat? What are your expectations for 2024?

Khaja Ahmed, Chief Security Officer at Gemini:

In recent years, the significant personal information of most consumers has been stolen in countless large-scale hacks of organizations. Criminals are trading social security numbers, email addresses, physical addresses, credit card numbers, credit profiles, medical records, and more. This enables fraudsters and scammers to launch more targeted and complex attacks, increasing the challenge of protecting consumers from financial loss. Consumers must be more aware of the types of scams that are about to happen, and service providers must be more vigilant in detecting whether their customers’ accounts have been compromised by attackers.

Shaun Blackburn, Cloud Security Director at Gemini:

We are starting to see classic impersonation attacks evolve as generative AI, like ChatGPT, makes it easier than ever to write phishing emails or even generate realistic videos impersonating anyone. This will lead to attackers using available tools for simple operations to trick users into giving up access rights in new schemes. Even so, I’m very excited about the progress the industry is making in terms of keys because it provides a simple and accessible security solution for everyone. This simple protection can greatly enhance security.

Sixth, New Trends

Which trends do you expect to be the focus in 2024?

Angel investor and The Network State author Balaji:

A sovereign debt crisis is happening, it just hasn’t been widely recognized. The parallel global financial system becomes even more important if we don’t have a repeat of the 2008 crisis without “parachute measures.”

Reflexivity Research co-founder Will Clemente:

Bitcoin will solidify as an institutional-grade global macroeconomic asset.

Pudgy Penguins CEO Luca Netz:

I believe that 2024 and beyond will be the year for cryptocurrency brands to focus on consumers, as I believe this is the next necessary step for mass adoption of cryptocurrencies. The industry needs to shift the narrative from economic gains to narratives surrounding digital ownership and accessibility. I believe that consumers facing the cryptocurrency revolution will be key to reshaping this narrative.

Cryptocurrency investment KOL Lady of Crypto:

The past 15 years have been a warm-up; now is the time for the main event. Mass adoption is already here, and with it, we will see numerous Web 2 giants enter the crypto space. I believe gaming will be the first breakthrough area that decouples from Bitcoin. Gaming already had basic digital currencies and collectibles before cryptocurrencies came along; the combination of blockchain and gaming is inevitable.

Azuki researcher Wale Swoosh:

I believe gaming will be one of the defining trends of 2024. In terms of cryptocurrency adaptation, gaming has always been and will forever be a great Trojan horse. Gaming is an area where the advantages of cryptocurrencies are easy to understand and explicit. I firmly believe that the Web3 gaming trend we saw at the end of 2023 will not only continue next year, but will become even more apparent.

1% Better founder Alex Finn:

I believe that in 2024, cryptocurrencies that unlock value in terms of user experience will emerge. People will be less willing to spend money on purely speculative assets. They will ask first, “What does this token unlock for me? Will it give me an advantage in online games? Will it allow me to enter elite communities? How will this token improve my life?” We have been developing cryptocurrencies for 10 years now, and the actual products behind these tokens will eventually appear.

O Show host Wendy O:

I’m very excited about cryptocurrencies in 2024. I truly believe that the emerging trends we will see are Bitcoin, Bitcoin ordinal, BRC 20 tokens, and GameFi (the ability to truly own assets you purchase in games), as well as RWAs. I think it’s important to be able to have IRL (in-real-life) assets and NFTs, and ordinality solves this problem. NFTs are an ordinal that allows people to own their own assets, just as Bitcoin allows people to have control over their money.

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