Bitcoin’s Potential Price Drop Revealed by CryptoQuant Researcher 💰📉

During Bitcoin's Recent Price Struggle, CryptoQuant Head of Research Reveals Potential Low Point.

CryptoQuant Head reveals target for Bitcoin’s potential lowest point.

In the midst of Bitcoin’s recent price struggle, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, Julio Moreno, has shed light on how low the BTC price can potentially go following its latest correction. 📉

Realized Price Reveals Potential Bottom 📉💰

To evaluate the potential bottom, Moreno looks at the realized price of 1 to 3-month-old Bitcoin holders. The realized price serves as an indicator that reveals the average price at which investors acquired their coins. It utilizes on-chain data to determine the cost basis of holders, assuming that the last transfer of any coin in circulation occurred when the coin changed hands. 🔍⛓️

When the spot price of Bitcoin is above the realized price, it means that investors are currently carrying unrealized gains. Conversely, if the spot price is lower than the realized price, it suggests that the overall market is underwater. 😮💦

Naturally, when the realized price and spot price are exactly equal, the average investor in the sector could be assumed to be breaking even on their investment. 🤷‍♂️📉

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Analyzing Short-Term Holders’ Behavior 🕰️💼

Moreno focuses on a segment of investors known as short-term holders (STHs), who bought their coins within the last 155 days. Within this group, the 1 to 3 months old investors are considered younger STHs. This particular group tends to react more sensitively to price changes compared to more mature holders. 💼💸

Historically, the realized price of these short-term holders has acted as a support level. Young STHs closely watch their average cost basis and tend to buy more Bitcoin when the price dips near that level, assuming the market sentiment is bullish. On the other hand, during bearish trends, this level can also act as resistance, as these STHs exit the market at their break-even point. 🐻📉🐂📈

The current realized price of 1 to 3-month-old STHs stands at $36,700. As per historical patterns, Bitcoin might dip to around this level before finding support if the current correction continues for an extended period. 📉🤞

BTC Price Stuck in a Sideways Trend 📈📉

Since the recent plunge below the $45,000 level, Bitcoin’s price has been trading sideways around the $42,500 level. The market seems to be searching for a clear direction as uncertainty lingers. 🔄💭

Additional Topics of Interest 🤔💡

Q: What other factors could influence Bitcoin’s price in the coming months? A: Besides short-term holder behavior, factors such as regulatory developments, institutional adoption, macroeconomic conditions, and market sentiment can have a considerable impact on Bitcoin’s price.

Q: How might the upcoming ETF launch affect Bitcoin’s price? A: The launch of a Bitcoin ETF has been highly anticipated as it could potentially bring significant liquidity and institutional money into the market. If approved, it may trigger a price surge and further market interest in Bitcoin.

Q: What are some potential future trends and strategies for Bitcoin investors? A: Looking ahead, it’s crucial to stay informed about regulatory changes, monitor institutional adoption, and keep an eye on market sentiment. Diversifying one’s portfolio, setting clear investment goals, and staying updated with industry trends can help investors navigate the volatile nature of Bitcoin and make informed decisions.

Conclusion: Weathering the Storm ☔⛅

While the current correction has tested Bitcoin’s resilience, analyzing the behavior of short-term holders provides valuable insights into potential price levels. As Bitcoin continues its rollercoaster ride, it’s essential for investors to stay informed, keeping an eye on key indicators and market trends. ⚡🎢

Reference Links:

1. Bitcoin Erases $49,000 ETF Rally As Coinbase Users Take To Selling
2. Is Bitcoin Near Top Yet? What Glassnode’s Price Multiplier Model Says
3. Bitcoin Historical Pattern: Could It Send the Price to $50,000 or Undergo Major Correction? Analyst Weighs In
4. Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can the Ascending Parallel Channel Pattern Hit $57,000 Target?
5. Bitcoin Adoption Soars: In-Person Vendors Accepting Bitcoin to Triple in 2023
6. Bitcoin Bullish or Bearish? Bitcoin Plunges 6% Amid Matrixport’s Contradictory Reports
7. BTCUSD on TradingView

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