QKL123 market analysis | Bid Bitcoin? Understand these signals (0325)

Abstract: Today's broader market is volatile and adjusted, with long and short positions stuck. Funds within the market are clearly divided, and short-term uncertainty is greater. Goldman Sachs gave six reference suggestions for the US stock market's dip signal; and for Bitcoin, there are several indicators worth learning from.

At 10:30 today, the 8BTCCI broad market index was reported at 9376.05 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 1.16%, reflecting an upward trend in the broad market; the total turnover was 1,04.767 billion yuan, a 24-hour change of -5.43%, and market activity declined. The Bitcoin strength index was reported at 100.00 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of -0.46%, and the relative performance of altcoins in the entire market has strengthened. The ChaiNext USDT OTC premium index was reported at 102.22. The 24-hour rise or fall was + 0.11%, USDT The OTC premium level has increased slightly.

Analyst perspective:

• U.S. $ 6 trillion economic stimulus plan is immediate, Bitcoin may become the biggest winner
• Panda Power, a technology-based mining comprehensive service company, received a 30 million yuan A round of financing, which will be used for cloud computing platform construction, etc.
• QKL123 Data Analysis | Bitcoin UTXO Age Distribution: Market Underground?

After the US Federal Reserve launched an unlimited QE undercover, the global stock market ushered in a super rebound yesterday. Is it a signal of a dip or a dead cat jumping?

However, under the dual effects of the spread of the epidemic and the debt crisis, the current global economic situation is still not optimistic, and highly indebted companies are facing the risk of bankruptcy under the disorder of supply chains in various countries. Once more and more companies go bankrupt, it will continue to weigh on the global economy, and US stocks will continue to bottom out.

At present, Goldman Sachs gives six signals of dips in US stocks:

(1) The number of cases of virus infection in the United States and Europe has begun to stabilize, and the growth curve has stabilized;

(2) the predictability of the depth and duration of economic disruption;

(3) Global and sufficient economic stimulus;

(4) The pressure on financing and liquidity has been alleviated;

(5) Major assets are seriously undervalued and positions are reduced;

(6) Other tail risks did not increase.

For bitcoin, which is highly linked to US stocks in the near future, the above is of reference significance.

Although Bitcoin has a role in countering the "flooding flood", it is difficult to survive alone due to the impact of global capital markets. For bitcoin, the following indicators or signals are worthy of reference:

(1) Bitcoin is severely undervalued, and MVRV is again below 1;

(2) The hoarding index is hovering below the bottom line, and the risk of fixed investment is extremely low;

(3) The market is stabilizing, and price volatility or bubble indicators are hovering at historical lows.

At present, the MVRV indicator has rebounded rapidly from below 1 after the recent plunge to about 1.6, and the corresponding coin hoarding indicator has risen from 0.26 to 0.45. Is the market gone forever? Think of the possible performance of U.S. stocks. For the current price of bitcoin, it is still best to invest or wait for bullets.

First, the spot BTC market

Today, the multi-armed force has weakened significantly, BTC has not broken the high point of last week, and the amount of energy can tend to shrink, and the short-term is stuck. There are obvious divergences in capital inflows, too many retail investors, the main force is empty, and the short-term uncertainty is large.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH dropped from yesterday's high of 142 US dollars, and there was no significant upward breakthrough. The overall trend is still in a rebound shock, and there is a certain downside risk in the short term.

Third, the spot BCH market

BCH shrink adjustment, hovering in the area of ​​$ 220 chip concentration, can be up and down, continue to link BTC for a short time.

Fourth, the spot LTC market

LTC has been shrinking in recent days, and there is a clear divergence in net capital inflows today. The main force is short and long and short.

V. Spot EOS Quotes

EOS fluctuated at $ 2.3, and the volume could shrink. Today's net inflow of funds on the market is too high, but from the perspective of pending orders, long and short positions are clearly stuck at this position.

Six, spot ETC market

ETC continued to converge on the daily line. There are still a large number of pending orders above 5.2 USD, and the short-term pressure is still large.

Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is bad, but the price is not far from the bottom, it is a good time for Tun Coin to invest. You can refer to the coin storage indicator. The smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, and ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2. Midline (January to March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for Bitcoin to get out of the bottom in a short period of time, and those with small positions intervene in batches.

3． Short-term (1-3 days)

Long and short stalemate, funds are obviously divided, short-term uncertainty is large, wait and see.

Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global market of the blockchain to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin in the market. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely fearful" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).

4.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

5.Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

6.BTC-coin hoarding indicator

The coin hoarding indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist bitcoin scheduled investment users to make investment decisions in conjunction with the opportunity selection strategy. This indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of Bitcoin price to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin fitting price. In general, when the indicator is less than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom-sweeping), and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, the fixed investment strategy is suitable, and the time interval accounts for about 39. %.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

We will continue to update Blocking; if you have any questions or suggestions, please contact us!