QKL123 market analysis | The third emergency meeting + unlimited QE support, Bitcoin's response rose sharply (0324)

Summary: The Fed's third emergency meeting in the month opened the end of quantitative easing, bitcoin rose sharply, the US index futures and gold also rose sharply, and the dollar fell.

At 10:30 today, the 8BTCCI broad market index was reported at 9217.44 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 10.34%, reflecting a sharp rise in the broad market; total turnover was 1,097.417 billion yuan, a 24-hour change of + 14.61%, and market activity increased. The Bitcoin strength index was reported at 100.61 points, with a 24-hour rise and fall of + 2.17%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market has clearly strengthened. The ChaiNext USDT OTC premium index was reported at 102.13, and the 24-hour rise and fall were -1.71%. The level of external premiums has dropped significantly.

Analyst perspective:

In early March, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time since 2008. US stocks fell instead of rising, and then started a sharp rise and fall pattern. On the 15th, there was a sudden second emergency rate cut of 100 basis points. The federal funds rate was reduced to zero and a quantitative easing program was launched. However, the market's response has intensified. Yesterday evening, the Fed held its third emergency meeting and announced the implementation of further rescue plans, including unlimited QE quantitative easing. These include open-ended asset purchases that will buy $ 75 billion in national debt and $ 50 billion in institutional home mortgage-backed securities each day this week.

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• Koreans don't love Bitcoin anymore? Trading volume of the two major exchanges fell by nearly 70%

In the face of economic downside risks, the Fed's response this month can be said to have fully absorbed the experience of the 2008 subprime crisis, and made a big move to resuscitate the market to prevent future troubles. But for the epidemic situation, the United States does not seem to have the experience in China, which may be related to the domestic experience of SARS. Experience makes people more prepared for disasters, and decisive decisions make long pain short. However, how to solve the long-term pain caused by flooding (debt dependence, the gap between rich and poor, and the birth of bubbles)?

The US 2 trillion US dollar fiscal stimulus was divided between the two parties, and the rich man failed to arrive. Under the influence of the negative, US stocks closed up and fell. However, US stock futures rose sharply today, and market sentiment showed signs of change under the expectation of unlimited stimulus. Under the flood of uncontrollable floods, the US dollar bears the brunt, and gold has become a safe haven. The former has fallen significantly in the short term, while the latter has exploded by 80 points. Bitcoin also rose sharply last night, with a short-term increase of nearly 10%. When banknote printers in various countries continue to destroy currency credit, Bitcoin, a peer-to-peer currency system, will play its due role in hedging its original intention of "responding to flooding".

First, the spot BTC market

At 8 o'clock last night, an hour and a half before the U.S. stock market opened, the Fed announced a new round of rescue plans (including unlimited QE). Bitcoin rose 8.24% in the following hour, with a significant volume. Then the volume of the second one-hour K-line was close to the previous one, and it fell back after reaching a maximum of $ 6,600. There is a golden fork on the daily MACD, and the upward space is expected to open, but there is a lot of hard disk accumulation in the upper area, which is under pressure. Near $ 7,000 is the key position in the near future.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH linkage rises, but the rise is relatively weak, indicating that there is still a clear differentiation of funds in the market, waiting for BTC to test the pressure.

Third, the spot BCH market

BCH linkage upwards, but the amount of energy accompanying it is not obvious. Waiting for BTC to explore again, if it can open up space in the future, it is expected that a wave of market will come out with the expected effect of halving.

Fourth, the spot LTC market

The linkage of BTC went up, but it declined after the rally, which further confirms that there are differences in funds on the market, and the short-term linkage of BTC is mainly.

V. Spot EOS Quotes

The amount of energy and lifting is relatively small, and there are major differences in the net inflow of funds in the market, and the short-term linkage of Bitcoin is mainly.

Six, spot ETC market

The short-term ETC method is slightly different, and there is no significant increase in volume. There are a large number of pending orders above 5.2 USD, and the short-term pressure is obvious.

Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is bad, but the price is not far from the bottom, it is a good time for Tun Coin to invest. You can refer to the coin storage indicator. The smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, and ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2. Midline (January to March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for Bitcoin to get out of the bottom in a short period of time, and those with small positions intervene in batches.

3． Short-term (1-3 days)

There are divergences in the market. Depending on the pressure situation above, small positions can be sold high and low.

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Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global market of the blockchain to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin in the market. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely fearful" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).

4.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

5.Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

6.BTC-coin hoarding indicator

The coin hoarding indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist bitcoin scheduled investment users to make investment decisions in conjunction with the opportunity selection strategy. This indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of Bitcoin price to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin fitting price. In general, when the indicator is less than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom-sweeping), and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, the fixed investment strategy is suitable, and the time interval accounts for about 39. %.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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