QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin risk avoidance highlights, long-term still bullish (0911)

Abstract: The short-term market tends to go down, but the short-term adjustment tends to the end, the downside is small, and there is a good chance of a long-term or long-term layout. In the past month, the safe-haven properties of Bitcoin under the Argentine incident have been highlighted. There have been many similar incidents in the past decade. These are one of the reasons for the long-term rise in bitcoin prices.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on September 11, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,877.613 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -1.92%, the total turnover was 369.278 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -13.98%. Market activity has decreased. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13397.49 points, a 24-hour up-and-down of -2.08%; the Alternative sentiment index was 38, which was lower than yesterday (41), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), XMR had the largest drop in 24 hours (-4.93%) and ETH had the smallest drop in 24-hour (-1.08%). BTC rose by -2.30% in 24 hours, market share (68.35%) was slightly lower than yesterday (68.40%), ETH market value (7.32%) was slightly higher than yesterday (7.27%), market risk aversion was slightly ease. The USDT rose by +0.11% in 24 hours, and the net inflow of funds today was 147,677,700 yuan, an increase from yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index was at 99.87 points, with a 24-hour rise to -0.25%.

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In the past day, global Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 90) increased from yesterday (peak 86), slightly higher than the seven-day average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (48), Brazil (47), South Africa (45), Austria (41), Cyprus (41) and Germany (39). Among them, Cyprus's Bitcoin Google search fever (peak 87) increased significantly compared to yesterday (peak 100).

Analyst's point of view: Cyprus has experienced a serious banking crisis in history: In March 2013, part of the funds in the aid agreement reached with the European Union in response to the debt crisis in the new Cyprus, through the tax increase for depositors. The way to obtain this directly caused the depositors to rush to exchange their own currency for Bitcoin after panic, which in turn promoted the skyrocketing price of Bitcoin. According to reports, due to high inflation and foreign exchange controls in Argentina, many investors have sought Bitcoin as a safe haven, resulting in a continuous increase in the trading volume and premium of Bitcoin on the local trading platform, with the premium increasing from 8% in August to More than 10% in recent days. Under such extreme events, some investors will choose Bitcoin as an effective hedging tool. In the short term, Bitcoin will be beneficial and will also contribute to the long-term value of Bitcoin. Recently, the short-term adjustment phase of Bitcoin has come to an end, and a new round of rising prices may start, making it the most stable for long-term investment by ordinary retail investors. Recently, risk enthusiasts can further increase their positions on dips, and risk-averse people can wait for the bargaining interval and then bargain.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, the BTC continued to fluctuate slightly, down slightly below the $10,200, and the lowest is currently reaching $9,880. The short-term RSI shows an oversold, and it is more likely to oscillate upwards within the support range. Short-term shock adjustment tends to change space with time, convergence triangle tends to the tail, and it is expected to stabilize in the near future.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 380,673,600 yuan, a slight increase from yesterday (341,049.37). Among them, the over-single (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow was 14.566 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow was 145,180,700 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 195,002.70 yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 39,034.10 yuan. The market is mostly reduced by the single order.

2. Fundamentals

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 84.48EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (84.57EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the chain was 807,300, which was lower than the previous day (760,800), higher than the one-month average. Yesterday, the number of currency days destroyed was 3.864 million (historically smaller), which was significantly lower than the previous day (760.47 million), but the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday, ETH smashed to 185 US dollars and then oscillated slightly downward. It is currently oscillating around 180 US dollars. It has not yet effectively broken below the support level, and it is short-term and long-term. The relative price of ETH's BTC continued to rise, hitting a maximum of 0.018 BTC, and it is now slightly down to around 0.0178 BTC.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 82,148,600 yuan, which was less than yesterday (434,234,400 yuan). Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 81.078 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 30,254,600 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 666.04 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 10562.20 million. The market is mainly based on the reduction of positions in the market.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly, adding 8 new ones. Among them, the game application My Crypto Heroes has a 24-hour active user number of 1.8k, 24 hours change +8.54%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.8k, 24 hours change +3.78%; trading application IDEX 24-hour active users The number 317, 24 hours change -23.80%.

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC oscillated down after hitting a high of 73 US dollars yesterday. It is currently fluctuating around 70 US dollars. The short-term Air Force was suppressed. The LTC/BTC transaction adjusted for shocks and is currently fluctuating around 0.0070 BTC.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 586,116,500 yuan, a significant increase from yesterday. Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net out of 86.216 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 9132.73 yuan, the net outflow of medium (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 34,108.39 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 250,143.2 thousand yuan. The market is mostly reduced by large orders.

2. Fundamentals

At present, LTC's total network computing power is 273.08TH/s, which is lower than yesterday's (333.08TH/s), which is close to the low point of a month. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has decreased. It is related to the withdrawal of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (367.735 million, historical median), compared with the previous day (901.683 billion), the short-term selling pressure has eased, the long-term trend has not been destroyed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 109,400. Close to a month high.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

EOS hit a small shock of 3.9 US dollars yesterday morning, and then oscillated down to around 3.7 US dollars. There is a short-term risk of callback. At the same time, the EOS/BTC trading pair has fallen back, and the volume has shrunk slightly around 0.00037 BTC.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 145,470,200 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 5,155,600 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 2,391,200 yuan, and the medium (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 94.051 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 22,273,900 yuan. The market is mostly reduced by the single order.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp dropped slightly, adding 2 new ones. Among them, the game's PROSPECTORS 24 hours of users 3k, compared with yesterday's change -1.42%; quiz application Dice's 24-hour active users 1.3k, compared with yesterday's change +1.89%; data application Lumeos 24 hours active users 1.5k, compared Yesterday's change was -0.27%; the number of 24-hour active users trading Newdex was 1.4k, a change of -5.52% from yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year, and can be configured on a dip.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

In the near term, the market is expected to step out of the upward trend.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term range shocks, the market is not stable, wait and see.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

3.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

4. Google search trends

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

5. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

6. Coin-day destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

7. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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