QKL123 market analysis | Fed interest rate cuts expected to strengthen; Britain's hard Brexit is uncertain (1017)

Abstract: Today's broader market continued to fall, the altcoin currency fell a lot, and it stabilized for a short time. Whether the Fed will cut interest rates in October or whether the UK will successfully leave the EU will have a certain impact on the market and it is worthy of attention in recent days.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 17, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,575.06 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -2.67%, the total turnover was 405.14 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +1.36%. The market activity has increased slightly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 1068.60 points, up 24 hours to -3.23%, reflecting the market's decline; the Bitcoin strength index was 93.76 points, 24 hours up +0.84%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market became stronger. The Alternative sentiment index was 40, which was the same as yesterday (40), and the market sentiment was expressed as fear.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market capitalization (excluding USDT), BSV had the largest decline in 24 hours (-6.22%), and BNB had the smallest 24-hour decline (-2.11%). USDT has a 24-hour up/down of +0.07%. The current net inflow of funds today is -40,745,700 yuan, which is basically the same as yesterday. The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index is reported at 100.08, with a 24-hour up/down of +0.11%.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 75) increased slightly from the previous value (peak 72), approaching a one-month low. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (48), South Africa (41), Germany (39), Austria (37), Switzerland (36) and Cyprus (35). Among them, Germany's Google search relative value (peak 100) increased significantly compared to the previous value (peak 93). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 84) fell slightly from the previous value (peak 85), approaching a one-month low.

Analyst's point of view:

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced the latest economic sentiment Beige Book report, the US dollar index has fallen (down 3%), while the gold price rebounded slightly (up 0.5%). The report shows that the US business community generally believes that the economy will continue to expand, but continued trade tensions and global growth slowdown have caused pressure, and the continued weakness of the manufacturing industry may drag down other industries, many companies have lowered their expectations for the economic outlook. According to the CME Fed observation tool, the market is currently betting that the probability of a rate cut by the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of October is close to 90%.

This week, the UK "Brokestrap Agreement" process entered a crucial week, and tomorrow the EU summit will decide whether to approve the "Brexit" agreement. If the Brexit agreement is not approved, the British Prime Minister Johnson needs to request a delay in Brexit, otherwise the UK is likely to be hard to leave the European Union. Earlier, the British Prime Minister announced that even if there is no agreement, he must lead the UK to withdraw from the EU. At present, the two sides still have differences on issues related to Ireland and other trades. The uncertainty of whether the UK can successfully negotiate the Brexit is greater.

The above two events may be fermented in recent days, which will affect Bitcoin prices in a short time and deserve further attention.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, the BTC went down, continued the range volatility ($7,800 to $8,800), and the lowest in the early morning reached $7,900. It came near the recent lows and was getting closer and closer to the direction of the exit.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 27,073,170 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 14414.44 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 80.756 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow was 2,749,200 yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 74.624 million yuan. The market has a large net outflow of large single funds.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC network was 89.50EH/s, which was lower than the previous day. It was close to the low point in the month, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. The number of active addresses on the chain was 496,400, which was lower than the previous day, close to three. The low point in the month; the trading volume on the chain was 625,200, which was lower than the previous day, which was close to the low point of a month; the number of currency days destroyed was 6,162,800 (historically small), which was significantly lower than the previous day and long-term rise. The trend has not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

After ETH reached a low of 172 US dollars in the morning, it stabilized. At present, it is near 175 US dollars. There is a big difference in the market, waiting for the main force to choose the direction; ETH/BTC trading continues to fall slightly, and the short-term performance is slightly weak.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 40,652,100 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 151.426 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 6.7542 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 10.6875 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 49,991,740 yuan. There is a big difference in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp rebounded slightly. The game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 3k, 24 hours change +0.27%; financial application MakerDAO 24 hours active users 2.7k, 24 hours change -1.31%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24 hours active users 1k, 24 hours change + 6.58%.

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC continued to decline, and it stabilized after hitting a low of 51 US dollars in a short time. Currently, there is a sign of a rise in the vicinity of 52 US dollars, and the short-term performance is weak.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 3.014 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 44.283 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 1491.14 yuan, and the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow 2282.21 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 3,353,900 yuan. There are serious differences in the market, with a large net outflow.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 253.10TH/s, which was slightly lower than yesterday and was close to the new low of six months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power will decline and it will take some time to recover. However, if the continuous innovation is low, there is a risk of stamping. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (5.54 million) dropped significantly from the previous day, lower than the one-month average; the transaction volume on the LTC chain (172.57 million) was significantly lower than the previous day, lower than the monthly average; the number of coins destroyed (9706.28, history) Median), there is a certain risk of selling pressure in a short time.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

After the rapid decline of EOS and EOS/BTC in the early morning, there was a relatively small amount of light, with a minimum of 2.8 US dollars and 0.000346 BTC. It is currently fluctuating around 2.9 US dollars and 0.000365 BTC, showing short-term weakness.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 38.128 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 8.8267 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 12.34 million yuan, and the medium order (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 2,834,400 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 3,176,250 yuan. There are major differences in the market, with a large net inflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp declined slightly. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 2.9k, which is +0.94% change from yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 2.1k, which is -11.34% change from yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users who use Newdex in trading is 1.6k. Yesterday's change was -14.22%; data application Lumeos's 24-hour active users was 1.2k, a change of +0.85% from yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS faucet EOS is close to the low of the year and can be configured separately.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin is near the 200-day moving average, and it is more likely to make a short-term bottom-up.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Wide range of shocks, small positions can be supported by low suction and high throw, and broken stop loss.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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