QKL123 market analysis | Federal Reserve cut interest rates as scheduled, safe-haven assets fluctuate (1031)

Abstract: Today's market has fallen back. Bitcoin is supported at $9,000 and is expected to continue in the short term. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, but the market expects that the probability of interest rate cuts will be small in the next few months. The short-term gold has V-shaped fluctuations and the S&P has a new high. Another reminder is to guard against the use of Bitcoin's various scams.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 31, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,746.29 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -1.42%, the total turnover was 626.422 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -9.29%. Market activity has dropped significantly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 12610.68 points, up 24 hours to -1.67%, reflecting the market's decline; the Bitcoin strength index was 96.92 points, 24 hours up + 0.23%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market was slightly Stronger; the Alternative sentiment index is 50, slightly lower than yesterday (53), and the market sentiment is still neutral.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), TRX had the largest decline in 24 hours (-6.28%), and BNB had the largest increase in 24 hours (+0.82%). USDT has risen and fallen to +0.02% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 226,632,100 yuan, which is lower than yesterday. USDC has risen and fallen to -0.09% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds is 10.1092 million yuan, which is opposite to yesterday. Turn; ChaiNext USDT OTC discount premium index reported 100.40, 24 hours up and down to +0.11%.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 42) fell slightly from the previous value (peak 48), approaching a one-month high. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Germany (48), Austria (47), Switzerland (46), South Africa (46), Ghana (45) and the Netherlands (39). In related topics, Bitcoin Loophole's search volume has risen first, and is associated with fraudulent websites that claim to be a platform for automatic trading of Bitcoin. In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 67) has fallen from the previous value (peak 80), below the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

In recent years, the use of bitcoin related fraud has emerged one after another, and the scam related to Bitcoin Loophole is one of them. The fraudulent website will fabricate all kinds of famous people's words and deeds to make fraudulent statements, and wear a high-return coat of auto-transactional bitcoin to lure users into investing money, which will defraud user information or principal. According to reports, on July 31, the Monetary Authority of Singapore warned that the scam website fabricated the words of the second Prime Minister of Singapore for fraudulent propaganda.

Yesterday, the Fed announced that it will cut the interest rate target range by 25 basis points. This is the third rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. Although the US economic data is mixed (consumption is strong but investment is still weak), most of the market expects this to be the last rate cut this year. Various types of assets have responded. In a short period of time, gold has a V-shaped trend, risk assets have risen, and S&P has reached new heights.

In another news, the Chilean president announced on the 30th that he will abandon the November APEC summit and the December UN climate change conference. The reason is the recent domestic outbreak of confrontation storm, the fuse is the price increase of the Capital Metro, but after the termination of the subway price increase proposal, the national protests have intensified. According to reports, since October 18, the confrontation storm has caused dozens of deaths and nearly 1,000 injuries. In addition, the Sino-US trade agreement originally scheduled for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit may be delayed.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, the BTC continued to fall. After the lowest price of 9,000 US dollars in the early morning, it stabilized. The short-term quantity and amplitude further shrank, and the possibility of change was increasing. On the daily line, the Bollinger band is up, and the MACD gold fork is up. It is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 134,470,400 yuan. Among them, the over-single (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow was 2,643,614 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow was 3,511,000 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 8794.30 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 45.59 million yuan. There was a divergence in the market, with a large net outflow of large single funds.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 88.64 EH/s, which was lower than the previous day. It was close to a one-month low. The long-term upward trend has not changed. The number of active addresses on the chain is 715,600, a slight decrease from the previous day, close to one. The monthly high; the trading volume on the chain was 2.0172 million, which was an increase from the previous day, which was a high point in the past month; the number of coins destroyed in the currency day was 4,569,600 (historical value), which was lower than the previous day, and the long-term uptrend was not affected. To destruction.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday, ETH fell slightly in the small amount of 185 US dollars, the lowest reached 180 US dollars, ETH / BTC trading continued to fluctuate slightly in the low position, short-term performance is slightly weak.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 72.309 million yuan. Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 2,169,400 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 15.5832 million yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 5,302,200 yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 161.613 million yuan. There are big differences in the market, mainly based on the net outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has decreased. The game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.7k, 24 hours change -14.91%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.4k, 24 hours change -3.46%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24 hours active users Number 956, 24 hours change – 1.24%.

Third, the spot LTC market

Yesterday, LTC contracted down to 56 US dollars and stabilized. At present, the relative performance is slightly weak, and short-term linkage is mainly based on Bitcoin.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 137,698,800 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized bills (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 8.5057 million yuan, the net outflow of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 726.56 yuan, and the net outflow of medium orders (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 112.39 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 137.81 million yuan. The market is mostly net outflows of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average computing power of LTC's entire network was 193.20TH/s, a slight increase from the previous day, close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (57,300) has dropped from the previous day, approaching a one-month low; the number of coins destroyed in the day is 10.1055 million (historically small), and the long-term trend has not been destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

With the fall of the broader market yesterday, EOS hit a low of 3.18 US dollars today and stabilized. Although it did not break through the previous highs, it was mainly a short-term linkage.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 15,419,500 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 10.3061 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 15.761 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 3.854 million yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 184.11 million yuan. There are differences in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp dropped slightly. The application of Dice's 24-hour active users is 3.8k, which is +11.84% compared with yesterday; the game EOS Dynasty's 24-hour users is 3k, which is -3.79% compared with yesterday; the trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users is 1.4k, compared with yesterday. Change -9.31%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

At present, Bitcoin returns to the 200-day moving average, and those who do not have a strong position can retreat to about 9,000 US dollars.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Back support can be done in small positions.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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