QKL123 market analysis | "The first block of the blockchain" breaks; Bitcoin is at risk (1122)

Abstract: So far, the market has fallen rapidly, and the altcoin has fallen sharply. The "first block of the blockchain" broke. The short-term market has oversold and rebounded. If Bitcoin continues to fall below its recent low, the long-term trend will go bad.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on November 22, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,491.773 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -5.29%, the total turnover was 571.709 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +23.87%. Market activity has increased significantly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 10668.13 points, up 24 hours to -6.38%, reflecting the rapid decline of the broader market; the Bitcoin strength index was 94.41 points, 24 hours up +0.57%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market changed slightly. Strong; the Alternative sentiment index was 20, which was significantly lower than yesterday (30), and the market sentiment changed from fear to extreme fear.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market capitalization (excluding USDT), EOS had the largest decline in 24 hours (-8.51%) and XRP had the smallest 24-hour decline (-2.98%). USDT has risen and fallen to +0.56% in 24 hours. Today's net inflow of funds was 61.759 million yuan, which was significantly higher than yesterday. USDC rose by +0.38% in 24 hours. Today's net inflow of funds is 4.0317 million yuan, which is opposite to yesterday; ChaiNext USDT field The external discount premium index was reported at 100.66, with a 24-hour rise and fall of +1.06%.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 98) dropped slightly from the previous value (peak 100), approaching the one-month average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (46), Austria (42), Switzerland (42), South Africa (41), Germany (41) and the Netherlands (40). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 77) rebounded slightly from the previous value (peak 76), approaching the one-month average.

Analyst's point of view:

Since last night, "the first block of the blockchain" Jia Nan Zhi Zhi (Jia Nan Technology, code CAN) broke after the Nasdaq listing, the issue price of 9 US dollars. CAN opened up to $12.6, but then began to fall, once fell below the issue price, closing at $8.99, down 0.11%, the current market value is about $ 1.422 billion. According to reports, Jianan Technology raised funds of 90 million US dollars, far lower than the previous forecast of 400 million US dollars.

Jia Nan Zhi Zhi, as one of the three giants of the Bitcoin mining machine, opened the IPO road three years ago. I tried to "backdoor" to land in A shares (2016), submitted an application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (2018), and tried to list US stocks after the first two rejections, and finally ushered in the dawn. From an industry perspective, this is a milestone that marks the acceptance of the traditional capital market for the bitcoin mining industry.

However, the response to the crypto-asset market was astounding, with bitcoin falling last night and coming to a near-term low ($7,500). If it falls below the previous low ($7,300), it will move closer to the next level (about $6,500), and the long-term trend will also be bad. At this time, the market trend is precarious.

It is understood that "blockchain + AI" is the direction that Jia Nan Zhizhi is optimistic (personal smart device turned into AI miner?!), which released the first generation AI chip in September 2018, and in 2019 03 The AI ​​chip was commercialized on a monthly basis. However, from the disclosure of the prospectus, the mining business is still the main component of Jianan’s operating income (accounting for about 99%), and the decline in the price of Bitcoin will undoubtedly pose a greater threat to its mining revenue. Its share price will be positively linked to the bitcoin price. First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday evening, BTC's volume fell below 7800 US dollars and quickly fell. Today's rebound is weak, piercing yesterday's low, and now there is a small amount of heavy volume around 7500 US dollars. The daily RSI indicator shows a serious oversold, a short-term rebound, and a large probability range ($7,300 to $8,600). If it falls below again in the near future, the long-term uptrend will go bad.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 412.918 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 169,955,500 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 5,095,700 yuan, and the net is in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan). The inflow of 50.04 million yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 137.70 million yuan. The market has a large divergence, and the main force is much more, but the net outflow of medium-sized funds is mostly.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 85.79EH/s, which was lower than the previous day. It was close to a one-month low. Mining was close to the break-even point. The number of active addresses on the chain was 668,600, down from the previous day. One-month average; the trading volume on the chain was 1,340,500, which was higher than the previous day and higher than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed was 8,162,800 (historically small), which was higher than the previous day and lower than the one-month average.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH fell a lot, came near the recent lows, there are signs of major capital intervention, short-term oversold rebound.

Fund face

As of 15:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 4,196,500 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 110.52 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 43.928 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 106.21 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 218.78 million yuan. The market has a large divergence, and the main force is much more, but the net outflow is mostly small.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp decreased significantly. The game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.7k, 24 hours change -10.39%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.7k, 24 hours change -41.24%.

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC's small volume has reached a minimum of 48 US dollars, has not fallen below the recent low, short-term oversold rebound.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 410.255 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 14.2826 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 2,073.25 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net outflow 29447.40 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 80.762 million yuan. The market is consistently bearish, with a net outflow of medium singles.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 177.55TH/s, which was slightly higher than the previous day, lower than the one-month average and close to the low of the year. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (56,800) was slightly higher than the previous day, close to a one-month low; the number of coins destroyed was 15.3753 million (historically smaller), close to the one-month average.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

Among the mainstream currencies, EOS fell the most, and yesterday, a small amount of heavy volume dropped to 2.7 US dollars. Today, it is again slightly reduced, and the current oversold rebound.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 4,747,410 yuan. Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 765.13 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 23.327 million yuan, between the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 8,081,100 yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net out of 10,907,600 yuan. There is a big difference in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has recovered slightly. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 1.3, which is +0.76% compared with yesterday. The number of 24-hour active users using the Newdex transaction is 920, which is +1.66% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is good. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years, and the position is not heavy. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Bitcoin comes below the 200-day moving average. If the position is not heavy, it can be bargain-hunting. If it falls below the previous low ($7,300), it will lighten up.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term oversold rebound, backed by the support of small positions, low suction and high throw, broken stop loss.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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