QKL123 market analysis | The master is also planted in the middle of the mountainside, not to underestimate the crisis (0320)

Abstract: Yesterday, after the market closed, the market changed and moved upward. However, it is currently facing resistance and has dropped. Historically, masters were rarely spared from stock market disasters. At present, it may be just the night before the problem is exposed. Although the major economies have started large-scale stimulus, the crisis will not go away, so it is not the time to say the bottom line.

At 10:30 today, the 8BTCCI broad market index was reported at 8878.86 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 13.94%, reflecting a rebound in the broader market; total turnover was 11,766.64 yuan, a 24-hour change of + 32.30%, and market activity increased significantly. The Bitcoin strength index was reported at 94.83 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 1.19%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market has become significantly stronger. The ChaiNext USDT OTC Premium Index was reported at 102.21. The level of premiums has fallen slightly.

Analyst perspective:

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Looking back on the eve of the Great Depression of 1929, the New York Stock Exchange, which was established more than 100 years ago, ushered in the worst stock market disaster in history. The Dow Jones Index turned around from its then-high 381, and fell below 200 within a few weeks. But the stock market did not adjust in place, and under the continuing influence of the Great Depression, it did not reach its lowest point in 1932 (41 points!). Fisher, then the top economist, and Graham, Buffett's teacher, were not spared. Among them, Graham continued to increase his leverage during the crash, but the "bottom" broke again and again and eventually went bankrupt.

Today, the nature of the capital market remains unchanged, a similar scene has arrived, but this time the situation may be more complicated. This month, the U.S. stock market melted down four times, and the Fed cut interest rates twice for the second time in a row (the second time it went directly to zero), unprecedented. Fortunately, countries have learned lessons from the past, so that this stimulus policy to rescue the market came earlier and more violently. The US will launch a US $ 1 trillion stimulus plan after the US $ 700 billion quantitative easing is launched to deal with the systemic risks under the current crisis.

However, it is not yet possible to be blindly optimistic. With the "mammoth" and "wealth dad" of various countries entering the battlefield, it is still difficult for the market to cure drugs before they find the crux. The recent rumors of "bridge water bursts" and related rumors let us see more of the truth now. A huge debt crisis is buried under the stock market disaster. At present, global capital liquidity is becoming depleted, and the real crisis is still in the exposed stage. Don't make a conclusion to the market easily. For Bitcoin, it is necessary to find the turning point of the trend under the two-way role of global capital liquidity restrictions and flooding of countries.

First, the spot BTC market

BTC changed its direction yesterday, with a small amount of volume, quickly pulled up to 6,400 US dollars and then blocked, this position is also halfway up the mountain after the previous plunge, the Air Force can not be underestimated. On the daily line, MACD is tending to the underwater golden fork, but the large opening of the crocodile indicator has not yet been closed. If there is no significant volume upside recently, the follow-up is mainly based on wide shocks.

Second, the spot ETH market

The amount of ETH released during the upward movement yesterday can be relatively obvious, after which it reached a maximum of $ 143, but it is currently under pressure from the profitable chips below and is backtested.

Third, the spot BCH market

It may be the effect of halving expectations in April, BCH began to be favored by on-site funds. After converging recently, it turned upwards yesterday, the trend is stronger than BTC and ETH, and the accompanying volume can be obvious. If it starts to fall in a short time, whether it can obtain effective support depends on BTC.

Fourth, the spot LTC market

LTC was suppressed at $ 40, and it is currently falling back to the short-term support line, mainly in conjunction with BTC.

V. Spot EOS Quotes

EOS is currently standing at the early rebound high, but from the point of view of pending orders, there is a lot of pressure near $ 2.3 and it will fall back to test support shortly.

Six, spot ETC market

In the early hours of this morning, ETC increased significantly from around 4.7 US dollars, but it has fallen back to the oscillating range near 5 US dollars, and the pending orders at this position have strong support.

Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is bad, but the price is not far from the bottom, it is a good time for Tun Coin to invest. You can refer to the coin storage indicator. The smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS, BTC fork currency leader BCH, and ETH fork currency leader ETC can be configured on dips.

2. Midline (January to March)

Affected by the financial environment, it is difficult for Bitcoin to get out of the bottom in a short period of time, and those with small positions intervene in batches.

3． Short-term (1-3 days)

After the rebound, it dropped and continued to wait and see.

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Appendix: Interpretation of Indicators

1. 8BTCCI broad market index

The 8BTCCI broad market index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global market of the blockchain to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2.Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange rate of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and then reflects the strength of Bitcoin in the market. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the performance of Bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative mood index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in market sentiment. 0 means "extremely fearful" and 100 means "extremely greedy." The components of this indicator include: volatility (25%), transaction volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), and trend (10%).

4.USDT OTC Premium Index

The ChaiNext USDT OTC INDEX index is obtained by dividing the USDT / CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means the USDT parity, when the index is greater than 100, it means the USDT premium, and when it is less than 100, it means the USDT discount.

5.Net Funds Inflow (Out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds from global trading platforms (excluding false transactions), a positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, and a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the turnover is counted as inflow capital when rising, and the turnover is counted as outflow capital when falling.

6.BTC-coin hoarding indicator

The coin hoarding indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist bitcoin scheduled investment users to make investment decisions in conjunction with the opportunity selection strategy. This indicator consists of the product of two parts. The former is the ratio of Bitcoin price to the 200-day fixed investment cost of Bitcoin; the latter is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin fitting price. In general, when the indicator is less than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom-sweeping), and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, the fixed investment strategy is suitable, and the time interval accounts for about 39. %.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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