QKL123 market analysis | When the market is extremely scared, the greed! (0821)

Abstract: Today, the market fear index once again came to the low of the year, which may be a good opportunity for long-term investment. At present, the price of Bitcoin is in the down zone of the short-term convergence triangle, and the inflow of off-exchange funds has increased. It is more likely that the BTC will stabilize and rise in the short term.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on August 21, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 191.168 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by -4.83%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 391.636 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours. The change was +9.69%, and the 24-hour market activity continued to increase. The market value of BTC accounted for 68.11%, which was slightly lower than yesterday (68.26%). The market risk aversion was still high; the alternative sentiment index was 11, which was lower than yesterday (39), and the market performance changed from fear to extreme fear.

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The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) reported 13856.22 points, up 24 hours to -4.50%. Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), XMR has the largest decline in 24 hours (-6.99%), EOS has the smallest 24-hour decline (-2.27%), BTC has risen and fallen -4.50% in 24 hours, and ETH has risen and fallen in 24 hours – 4.44%. ChaiNext USDT Off-exchange Index (USDT OTC Index) reported 100.23 points, 24 hours up and down to +0.78%, USDT today's net capital inflow of 84.055 million yuan, compared with yesterday (30.173 million yuan).

Today, global Bitcoin's Google search trend relative value (peak 80) is slightly lower than yesterday (peak 85), lower than the average since the 7th. The top five countries are Nigeria (100), Brazil (63), Austria (56), Ghana (52) and South Africa (51). Among them, South Africa's search fever (peak 84) dropped significantly from yesterday (peak 66).

Analyst's point of view: Recently, the market fear index has reached the lowest level this year, while the market value of bitcoin accounts for a new high in the year. “Others panic and greed” may be a good opportunity for long-term investment. Today, Bitcoin has experienced a rapid decline, but the inflow of off-exchange funds has increased. It is more likely that the BTC will stabilize and rise in the short term.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, the BTC hit a maximum of 10,949 US dollars, and then fluctuated around 10,700 US dollars. It began to decline at 10:00 today and has a heavy volume. The amount released today is mainly concentrated between $10,200 and $10,500, and the air force is suppressed. From the 4-hour K-line point of view, the current BTC is in the short-term zone of the short-term convergence triangle. It is more likely to attack after a short-term callback, but if the amount can continue downward, there is a possibility of going bad. Pay attention to risk control.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 297,223,700 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the over-single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 83,652,600 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 42,208.30 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflowing was 945.29 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 76,833,100 yuan. The market is mostly reduced by the single order.

2. Fundamentals

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 73.33EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (73.39EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of coins destroyed was 6,266,700 (historically smaller), which was smaller than the previous day (710.80 million), and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 738,300, which was significantly higher than the previous day (32.71 million), higher than the average of the past month.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday, ETH hit a maximum of 203 US dollars and then reduced the volume, and at 12 o'clock today, there is heavy volume, short-term linkage BTC. The ETH/BTC transaction slowed down from the previous day's high of 0.0190 BTC. Today, after hitting a low of 0.0181 BTC, the volume will increase to 0.0185 BTC, which is currently slightly oscillating.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 238,180,100 yuan, an increase from yesterday (988.85 million yuan). Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 8,828,500 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 15.83 million yuan, and the net is between RMB 50,000 and 300,000 yuan. The outflow was 136,369,900 yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 1,259,848,800 yuan. There are differences in the market, mainly based on small orders and medium orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly. Among them, the pledge of DAI's 24-hour total flow of 907 ETH was significantly lower than yesterday (3,901 ETH), and the trading platform IDEX's 24-hour total flow of 1,408 ETH was increased compared with yesterday (1,118 ETH); the game encryption hero's 24-hour activity The number of users was 2,494, which was higher than yesterday (2,344); the number of 24-hour transactions of the stable currency Paxos Standard was 926, which was higher than yesterday (882).

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC shocked down from the previous day's highest hit of 77 US dollars, today hit today's low of 72 US dollars, short-term long and short wins and losses are not divided, linked to BTC. The LTC/BTC trading has shown signs of falling back from a small rise to 0.0072BTC near yesterday's low of 0.0070BTC, and the weak link to BTC.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 145.3174 million yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (902.255 million yuan). Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 747.73 million yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 3878.44 yuan, and the net inflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 3,075.82 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 71,944,600 yuan. The market is dominated by oversized singles and small singles.

2. Fundamentals

At present, LTC's total network computing power is 318.49TH/s, which is lower than yesterday (347.27TH/s). It is close to the low point of three months. After the block reward is halved, the computing power shows a downward trend. The possibility of going bad. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (826.36 million, historical normal value), significantly increased from the previous day (968.74 million), the long-term trend has not been destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the chain was 87,800, which was significantly higher than the previous day (61,300), higher than the average of the past month.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

EOS has oscillated down from the previous day's high of 3.8 US dollars. It went down again at 10 o'clock today. During the period, there was a heavy volume. After the minimum insert of 3.5 US dollars, the small amount fluctuated. The EOS/BTC trade is relatively strong from yesterday's low of 0.00034 BTC.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 38.121 million yuan, a decrease from yesterday (897.793 million yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 9.261 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 7,633,800 yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 220.65 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 378,100 yuan. There are differences in the market, and most of them are reduced by the single order.

2. Fundamentals

Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has increased. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Texas Hold'em is 1,231, which is slightly higher than yesterday (1,213); the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Trust Dice is 890, which is higher than yesterday (796); entertainment game WinPlay 24 The number of active users per hour was 952, which was less than yesterday (734).

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The market of mad cows may come in the next one to two years, and it can be added on a dip. The BTC trading of the intelligent contract platform ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is at a low level during the year and can be configured on a dip.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

The short-term BTC will continue to converge and adjust its reserves, which can be added to the bargain.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term BTC is more likely to continue the range volatility. If there are signs of stabilization, it can be low. If it falls below the support level, it can be chased and strictly controlled.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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