The Real Bull Spot Bitcoin ETF, the US Better Not Pass!

Beware of the US Approving the Real Bull Spot Bitcoin ETF!

The bear market has been going on for too long! Every bull signal is met with retaliatory rallies, with spot Bitcoin ETFs stealing the show.

Over the past half-year, the true and false news surrounding spot Bitcoin ETFs has driven the cryptocurrency market’s rebound amidst the bear market. Despite the spread of false ETF news, the continuous rise in Bitcoin prices has not been halted, especially with the increased possibility of approval from the US SEC in recent times.

In terms of sentiment, whether the US SEC approves spot Bitcoin ETFs is no longer important. What matters more is the successive price surges.

For some cryptocurrency users, it’s better if the US SEC doesn’t approve, as that way the price can continue to rise.

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1. False News, Real Rally

Recently, this rumor about ETFs may go down in cryptocurrency history.

On the evening of October 16, leading cryptocurrency media outlet Cointelegraph reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved asset management giant BlackRock’s application for a spot Bitcoin ETF. As a result of this news, the price of Bitcoin rose from $27,900 to $30,500 within 10 minutes, a 10% increase.

Subsequently, social media began to question the news, causing the price of Bitcoin to retract until BlackRock confirmed that their application was still under review. Bitcoin’s price fell back to around $28,000.

According to reports, this event caused short positions to be liquidated, resulting in losses of more than 1 billion yuan.

In reality, prior to this incident, Bitcoin’s price had already started to rise. In the 24 hours leading up to the rumor, Bitcoin’s price had risen by 2.5%. After the false news was clarified, Bitcoin’s price did not continue to fall but instead rebounded and continued to rise. As of October 20, Bitcoin’s price was approaching $30,000.

What caused the market to rise was not only the false news but also real progress and predictions related to spot Bitcoin ETFs.

According to media reports on October 19, both Grayscale and BlackRock updated their spot Bitcoin ETF applications, indicating that ETF issuers are in negotiations with the SEC regarding ETFs.

In a recent report, JPMorgan stated that the SEC may soon approve several spot Bitcoin ETF applications, stating, “The approval timing is still unclear, but it should be completed within a few months, most likely before January 10, 2024.”

Since June of this year, news about the progress and predictions of spot Bitcoin ETF applications have been continuous, and the overall Bitcoin market has risen and fallen accordingly, making such scenarios the norm.

On June 15th this year, asset management giant BlackRock officially submitted a spot Bitcoin ETF application to the SEC. Once the news was revealed, the price of Bitcoin jumped from $25,000 to $31,000 in just a few days.

BlackRock is the world’s largest asset management company, managing over $10 trillion in assets. Previously, BlackRock had a record of 575:1 for ETF applications approved by the SEC, with only one rejection in October 2014. BlackRock’s participation has also prompted other asset management companies to join in, leading to a new wave of spot Bitcoin ETF applications.

Currently, there are eight companies in the United States, including BlackRock, Grayscale, ARK Invest, Invesco, and Galaxy, that are applying for spot Bitcoin ETFs. In addition, companies like Global X and First Trust also hope to launch their own spot Bitcoin ETFs.

2. Accumulation of bear market sentiment

If a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC in the United States, it will be another milestone event in the history of cryptocurrency. This not only means that the U.S. regulatory authorities legally recognize the financial product status of Bitcoin, but it will also allow Bitcoin to reach a larger scale of public popularity.

Data analysis company CryptoQuant pointed out in a report that if a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved in the United States, the entire cryptocurrency market will grow by $1 trillion. If the issuers of the Bitcoin ETFs that are applying for listing invest only 1% of their managed assets into these ETFs, it would result in approximately $155 billion entering the Bitcoin market, which is almost one-third of Bitcoin’s current market value.

Most analysts believe that this market activity is a preview of what will happen once a spot Bitcoin ETF is actually approved.

However, the rise in the price of Bitcoin is also related to the accumulation of bear market sentiment over the long term. This “fake news, real rise” drama has proven this point quite well.

So far, the crypto bear market has lasted for a year and a half. After a series of events such as the collapse of Luna in 2022, the bankruptcy of Three Arrows Capital, and the FTX scandal, Bitcoin fell below $16,000 at one point last year. After entering 2023, the price of Bitcoin started to rebound, and several pieces of positive news have pushed Bitcoin’s price to reach a high point of $30,000.

The prolonged bear market has led to widespread pessimism in the industry. Several individuals in the crypto community have stated to Techub News that they have been “lying flat” for a long time, waiting for the next bull market to arrive.

Looking forward to a bull market is the mindset of every person in the crypto community. At the same time, the suppressed emotions accumulated during the long bear market also need to be released.

During crypto gatherings, “When will the bull market come?” is always a topic of discussion. One person from the crypto community expressed to Techub News, “The second half of next year is basically the industry consensus, but who wouldn’t want it to come earlier.”

Furthermore, from the perspective of industry development, the bear market has also brought more foundations for the bull market. Advancements in regulation and compliance, more countries and regions embracing Web3.0, and the participation of traditional giants are all continuously building the foundation for the next wave of the crypto industry’s bull market.Last October, Hong Kong announced its embrace of Web3.0 and its commitment to becoming an international virtual asset hub. After nearly a year of development, Hong Kong has taken the lead in implementing a virtual asset exchange licensing system. Hong Kong Cyberport has already gathered 180 Web3 companies, including unicorns and licensed virtual asset trading platforms.

In July of this year, South Korea held the “Seoul Web3.0 Celebration,” with the Seoul government expressing its intention to make Seoul the center of Web3.0.

In August, crypto industry supporter Srettha Thavisin was elected Prime Minister of Thailand and launched a nationwide airdrop program, distributing virtual currencies to all citizens 16 years and older.

In addition, giants from traditional industries such as LianGuaiyLianGuail and Visa have also embraced cryptocurrencies.

The crypto community eagerly awaits a bull market, while the industry is pushing for wider adoption of cryptocurrencies. Just as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink responded to fake news on October 17, saying, “This is an example of the interest in suppressed cryptocurrencies. We have heard the demand for cryptocurrencies from our clients around the world. Cryptocurrencies will play a role in ‘pursuing quality’.”

3. ETF is best not to pass

When the spot Bitcoin ETF can be approved in the United States is still unknown, but one thing is certain: the reasons for the SEC rejecting ETFs are becoming fewer and fewer, with decisions being postponed and no plans by the SEC to appeal the Grayscale ruling. All signs indicate that the time for the spot Bitcoin ETF to be approved is getting closer.

Recently, Grayscale made a statement regarding the SEC’s decision not to seek a rehearing: “The 45-day period for seeking a rehearing has passed, and the court will issue its final authorization within 7 days. The Grayscale team is ready and will convert GBTC to ETF as soon as SEC approval is obtained.”

Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer Craig Salm said that the spot Bitcoin ETF is a matter of time, not “if.”

According to the Grayscale official website, as of the time of writing, GBTC is priced at $22.45 with a negative premium shrinking to 13.12%, the lowest level in a year. During the peak of the bear market, GBTC once had a negative premium rate of nearly 50%.

Before it is officially approved, the SEC in the United States may still have various reasons to delay. However, in the “marathon” of ETF applications and long positions, the crypto community has gradually become numb.

A crypto player said to Techub News that everyone hopes that the approval of ETFs will bring growth to the crypto industry, but the more they hope, the more disappointed they become, and they have been liquidated several times by these widespread rumors.

In fact, many industry insiders do not have high expectations for the spot Bitcoin ETF. In their view, even if the SEC in the United States approves it, it may not necessarily bring about a bull market.

This August, asset management company Jacobi listed the first-ever European spot Bitcoin ETF on the Amsterdam-based Pan-European Exchange. Many analysts believed that this would have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency industry. However, the market reaction has been lackluster, and the US SEC has not expedited the approval process as a result.

At the time of writing, the ETF is priced at $19.2, with only a 6% increase from its initial offering price. In fact, it had previously fallen below the $18 offering price multiple times.

A cryptocurrency industry professional expressed on social media that an ETF is just a trap. It is in the best interest of the applicant to not have it approved. If it is approved, the benefits would be one-time, and other institutions would also take a share. On the other hand, if it is not approved, they can keep playing the market. They go long when applying and go short when rejected.

“The US SEC better not approve it, that way the cryptocurrency market can continue to pump multiple times until the real bull market arrives,” said a cryptocurrency user.

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