2023 Q4 popular token unlocking inventory and price fluctuation prediction

Anticipated Unlocking of Popular Tokens in Q4 2023 Inventory Forecast and Price Fluctuation Projection

October Token Unlocking

In October, several well-known projects, including Aptos, ApeCoin, Axie Infinity, and Optimism, will see a new round of token unlocking. We have compiled a summary of 12 unlocking events scheduled to happen, with unlock amounts exceeding $1 million. The content includes key data such as unlock quantity, time, amount, and circulating supply.

Now, let’s take a closer look at the specific details of these unlocks and analyze their potential impact on token prices.

Summary of October's Token Unlocking Events Exceeding $1 Million

Large Unlocking Events

In October, there are 4 projects with unlock amounts exceeding $10 million, namely Apecoin, Aptos, Optimism, and Axie Infinity. Among them, Axie Infinity has the largest unlock amount among all October token unlocks.

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Axie Infinity (AXS)

Axie Infinity will unlock approximately 15.13 million AXS, worth $67.91 million, on October 20th, 9:10 pm Beijing time. The unlocked tokens account for about 11.5% of AXS’s current circulating supply. The specific distribution of the unlock is as follows:

• Team: 40.19%
• Staking Rewards: 22.67%
• Play to Earn: 22.34%
• Ecosystem Fund: 11.17%
• Project Advisors: 3.63%

It can be seen that the team portion has the largest share of AXS unlocks this time. According to the data disclosed by Axie Infinity, the team’s allocation accounts for about 17.2% of the total supply of AXS. Since November 4th, 2020, this portion has already unlocked 59.52%, approximately 33.75 million AXS. Unlocking occurs once every 6 months, with a one-time unlock of 10.12%.

We calculated the potential price fluctuation of AXS based on the proportion of this unlock to the circulating supply of AXS (assuming the market cap remains unchanged). AXS’s price may experience a downward fluctuation of 10.32% due to this unlock. However, based on historical data from the previous unlock and the selling situation, the actual volatility of AXS price is unlikely to be that significant.

According to the price fluctuation data from the last unlock, the price fluctuation caused by the previous unlock was not significant, at around 1%. Additionally, apart from the team and ecosystem fund portions, the quantities of the other parts in this unlock have decreased. The total unlock amount has decreased by approximately 4.13 million. Therefore, the impact of this unlock on AXS price will not be as huge as calculated and there is a high probability that it will be lower than the previous unlock.

AXS Price Changes (April 23~30, 2023)

Optimism (OP)

Optimism will unlock approximately 24.16M OP tokens, worth $30.92M, at 12pm Beijing time on October 30. This unlocking represents about 2.74% of the current circulating supply of OP. The distribution of the unlocking is as follows:

• Core Contributors: 52.77%
• Investors: 47.23%

According to the disclosed information from Optimism, this unlocking consists of a fixed linear unlocking (monthly) from the two above-mentioned parts since the Cliff unlocking on May 31, 2023, accounting for approximately 1.56% of these two parts. Currently, 34.1% of both the core contributors’ and investors’ portions has been unlocked.

Aptos (APT)

Aptos will unlock approximately 4.45M APT tokens, worth $17.16M, at 8am Beijing time on October 12. This unlocking represents about 1.9% of the current circulating supply of APT. The distribution of the unlocking is as follows:

• Foundation: 29.3%
• Community: 70.7%

According to the disclosed information from Aptos, this unlocking consists of a fixed linear unlocking (monthly) from the two above-mentioned parts since October 2022, accounting for 0.63% and 0.81% of these two parts, respectively.

However, it’s worth noting that APT will experience its first unlocking for both core contributors and investors one month later (Nov 12, 2023). The unlocking quantity for these two parts will be 6.25%, occurring monthly. The total amount of unlocked tokens will be approximately 5 times the October unlocking, i.e., 24.84M APT.

Apecoin (APE)

Apecoin will unlock approximately 15.6M APE tokens, worth $23.99M, at 8am Beijing time on October 17. This unlocking represents about 4.23% of the current circulating supply of APE. The distribution of the unlocking is as follows:

• DAO: 47.05%
• Yuga Labs & Founders: 40.96%
• Core Contributors: 10.2%
• Charity: 1.79%

According to the disclosed information from Apecoin, the unlocked tokens in this round are all from the aforementioned parts and follow a fixed linear unlocking (monthly) schedule.

Price Fluctuation Prediction

Predicted price fluctuation after token unlocking

We calculated the possible price changes of each project’s tokens based on the unlocking circulation ratio (assuming the market cap remains unchanged). From the graph, it is evident that Axie Infinity and CyberConnect are the two projects with the largest circulating supply in the October token unlocking. If all the unlocked tokens are sold, it will have an impact of over 10% on their token prices. However, will the actual situation be exactly the same as the calculations? The answer is obviously unlikely.

According to statistics, the unlocked tokens for these projects in October are mostly linearly unlocked on a monthly basis. Therefore, when calculating the price impact, we need to consider the fluctuation of historical prices and token sales. At the same time, the volatility shown in the graph is calculated under the assumption of constant market capitalization, which does not match the actual market conditions.

Therefore, taking all factors into consideration, the actual price volatility of all project tokens unlocked this time will be significantly lower than the data shown in the graph. For example, as discussed in the Axie Infinity section above, the actual price volatility of AXS will most likely not exceed 10%, but will very likely be less than 1%.

Token Unlock in November and December

The unlock events in October were mostly ongoing monthly linear unlocks. Although there are some projects with larger unlock quantities and amounts that are worth noting, there are no specific projects that require special attention as a whole.

However, it is worth noting that in these projects, Aptos and dYdX will experience “real” large unlocks in November and December. Let’s take a closer look at the specific unlock information.

APT

Aptos will experience the first unlock for core contributors and investors on November 12, 2023, Beijing time. The unlock quantity is 6.25% for these two parts. The specific unlock quantities are as follows:

– Core Contributors: 11.875M APT
– Investors: 8.425M APT

In addition to the community and foundation parts that have been unlocked monthly in a linear manner, Aptos will unlock a total of 24.84M APT in November. This quantity is approximately 5 times larger than the unlock in October and is worth around $121.5M, accounting for 10.37% of Aptos’ current market value.

DYDX

dYdX will experience the first unlock for investors, employees/consultants, and future employees/consultants on December 3, 2023, Beijing time. The unlock quantity is 30% for these three parts. The specific unlock quantities are as follows:

– Investors: 83.1M DYDX
– Employees/Consultants: 45.9M DYDX
– Future Employees/Consultants: 21M DYDX

In December, dYdX will unlock 150M DYDX in one go, worth approximately $285.69M, accounting for 84.6% of dYdX’s current market value.

Summary

After organizing and analyzing all the unlock information, we have the following conclusions:

– Most of the unlocks in October came from the team/investor/consultant parts and were mostly ongoing monthly linear unlocks. Although there are individual unlocks with larger amounts, there are no one-time large unlocks after the cliff.

– Although individual projects (such as AXS) have higher price volatility calculated based on the proportion of token unlock circulation, the impact of this unlock on their token prices will not be significant when considering historical price fluctuations and token sales.

In November and December, there are two unlocking events that deserve special attention. The first one is the APT unlocking on November 12, which amounts to 24.84 million units. The second one is the DYDX unlocking on December 3, which amounts to 150 million units.

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