Talk about Bitcoin's next halving

On January 3, 2009, Bitcoin created a world block. The block reward is 50BTC.

On November 28, 2012, the 210,000th block was dug up, the block reward was halved for the first time, and the block reward was 25BTC.

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On July 10, 2016, the bitcoin awards generated by each block began to be halved to 12.5 BTC from the 420,000th block.

When will the halving in 2020 be about? At present, the block is close to the 570,000 blockchain, and there are more than 60,000 blocks from the 630000 block. If there is a block of 10 minutes according to the standard, there will be about 400 days from now, that is, there will be about one year. time. At that time, the block reward is less than 10 bitcoins for the first time, and each block only rewards 7.5 BTC.

Of course, this time is likely to be advanced. If you are fast, you should be able to see a halving of production shortly after 2020.

So what is the price trend of the previous two halving bitcoins as the most important cycle of Bitcoin?

This is the first time Bitcoin has halved the price performance:

The first halving, because mining has not yet become an "industry", has not yet entered the era of mining and mining pools, so it is not sensitive to ordinary people, and is not particularly large for the market. In the waves, people suddenly realized the value of Bitcoin in 2013, and they really started the carnival of Bitcoin.

This is the price performance of Bitcoin after the second halving.

The price chart before and after halving can be seen, although it is not immediately skyrocketing after halving, but after halving, Bitcoin will reach a new height. The overall trend looks like: after halving, the price starts to rise. , slowly rising, and finally skyrocketing.

Second, the last winter before the halving

The history of Bitcoin is not long, only ten years. In just ten years, there have only been two halvings. The two halvings are obvious, and they all bring a big bull market that is unprecedented. Of course, we can't say that because of the bull market brought by the halving of bitcoin, it is clear that halving production is the most important price cycle node for Bitcoin.

Then in the middle of the second halving, that is, at the end of 2014 at the bottom of the market, how difficult is this industry.

Let's mention the top mining machine manufacturers and exchanges in the food chain of the industry.

The first is the exchange, the old cat from the cloud coin (later one of the largest exchanges in the country):

This article on "How to spend the winter" is full of disappointment, chill, helplessness. For the industry's prospects, the exchange boss did not have much confidence. Despite the halving expectations, everyone was also prepared to "if they were three years old."

Then came the mining machine manufacturer. At that time, Xiaoqiang, the major shareholder of the domestic miner's roasting cat mining machine, said:

The roasting cat mining machine, which is similar in status to today's ant mining machine, is so difficult. It is conceivable how sad the days of other mining machine manufacturers are.

In fact, compared with 2014 in the middle of the last halving, the situation in 2018 is much better, although the domestic investment environment has entered the same as in 2014, full of disappointment with loss, full of uncertainty about the future, full of Hostility and chill (to fight against rights, quarrels, and even go to court), but the head of the mining machine manufacturers are ready to go public, the exchange went out to sea, the project side is still vigorously developed in the blockchain industry, the overall environment is still much better than in 2014, But what will happen in the future, everyone is still not sure.

Compared with the bleak state of the 2015 currency, I think the state of 2019 is already very good. Everyone is still optimistic, the market sentiment is still positive, many projects have reserved enough winter rations, and are still struggling to develop, and various technologies are constantly updating and iterating.

Third, why halving has an impact on prices

First of all, this is the price trend before the halving in 2016:

It can be seen that in 2016, the price of the currency was raised in advance.

As a reference, this is the last halving of the Litecoin:

The price of Litecoin soared from $1 in May to $8.97 in July, although it fell after the cash was realized, and the price was three times that before the halving.

Bitcoin production is halved. Who is the most sensitive? Nature is the guardian of the Bitcoin blockchain, miners. In the case of the same network difficulty, the same performance, the same amount of power mining machine to dig out the bitcoin reward directly squat, that is, mining revenue reduced by half, which is unbearable for many small mines. So if the price is not immediately, or if it is pulled high in advance, then the miners’ days will be worse, and shutting down the line, selling the mines, losing money, etc. will happen. In extreme cases (the price of the currency does not rise at all), the low-end mining machine and the relatively expensive mines have to close the line, making the bitcoin mining difficult, mining industry will be more cruel, cruel to only the big mine Fields, large mining pools, and state-of-the-art mining machines can survive.

After all, mining is also a business. If you have to mention the belief, then the profitable belief can last for a long time. They are not mining for more and more coins, but to make more and more money, or at least to sell the cost of electricity such as electricity, so basically the coins that are dug out need to go to the market. Selled, the daily output can be close to 2000 BTC, almost 50 million. In addition, after all, the price of the currency has fallen, so mine owners often need to open a single to hedge the downside risk and protect their mining revenue. If you don't know about the open list, you can understand it: the miners sold their future coins in advance.

There is a popular saying in the industry: "Minors are the biggest short sellers in Bitcoin." Although this view is still controversial, the miners' electricity bills are really needed in this market.

Therefore, for the market, the reduction in mining output means that the selling pressure in the market is reduced, and the effect on the market is relatively positive.

Of course, these are superficial phenomena. The biggest meaning of halving Bitcoin every time is to tell everyone: Bitcoin is really less and less, and you can't buy it without buying it!

Fourth, the guess about the next round of halving

After studying the price curve of Bitcoin for ten years, we can see that the biggest advantage of Bitcoin world is that the block reward is halved. It can be used as the main reference node of the bitcoin cycle, and by halving the previous round, we can Infer some interesting results:

1. We may be in the bottom price range of the big cycle (similar to the end of 2014 to the end of 2015).

2. Before the halving, there will be speculators who start speculation to halve the heat, that is, they will rise before the halving, but it is hard to say if it is effectively pulled up.

3. Halving the output will not threaten the “production work” of the completion. The miners have strong adaptability, so the security of Bitcoin is worry-free.

4, the price will always react in advance. For example, if the entire market thinks that a coin will rise 10 times in a month, it will rise 10 times today. Bitcoin is the same. If people think that halving will be a good thing, then he will start to rise a lot of time in advance.

5. Bitcoin is getting harder and harder to get, and 2020-2024 will be a key year for Bitcoin. (Coin World)

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