When did the fifth round of the Bitcoin bull market begin?

What was the start date of the fifth round of the Bitcoin bull market?

Author: David Canellis, Blockworks; Translator: Song Xue, LianGuai

The price of Bitcoin continues to rise, and if you believe in traditional market mathematics, then another bull market has already been confirmed.

On Monday morning, the price of BTC briefly broke through $42,000, rising nearly one-fifth in the past month and 150% year-to-date, on par with Meta but lagging behind Nvidia.

Bitcoin is currently at levels unseen since the Terra crash in May 2022, dragging the cryptocurrency into the longest bear market in history by at least one indicator.

• Bear market loses money, bull market continues to lose? The bull market survival guide is here.
• Bitcoin Hits Fresh Yearly High as Cryptocurrency Market Surpasses $1.5 Trillion
• Shocking Revelations! Crypto Exchange News Listing and Delisting Announcements for December 4, 2023

Banks like BlackRock and Fidelity may approve spot Bitcoin ETFs, potentially boosting the price of Bitcoin. The conclusion of the US Department of Justice’s case against Binance and co-founder Zhao Changpeng also seems to have helped, as the market is no longer worried about the worst-case scenario.

While not an exact science, the standard definition states that a bull market is confirmed when an asset rises 20% from its recent low point, while a bear market requires an asset to fall 20% from its previous high point.

For example, the S&P 500 index confirmed a bull market in June and has been in a bull market since its low point in October 2022.

Bitcoin Bull Market

A logarithmic view can better compare bull market returns.

Because cryptocurrencies are typically more volatile than stocks or real estate (sometimes fluctuating 20% within days), confirming bull and bear markets over longer periods of time may be more realistic.

Therefore, assuming that when a cryptocurrency price remains 20% or more below its recent high point for two months or longer, a bear market in the cryptocurrency begins. A bull market begins when prices rise far above the recent low point and stay that way for a month or longer.

• This means Bitcoin has been in a bull market for the past 296 days, making it the fifth bull market in history.

• On January 12, 2023, the Bitcoin trading price first rose 20% above the low point set before FTX announced bankruptcy in November of the previous year.

• Bitcoin maintained these gains for a month and started a bull market on February 12, 2023.

Such mathematical logic is interesting, but it should be emphasized that Bitcoin, like all other cryptocurrencies, is a very young asset.

With a price history of only about 13 years, it is somewhat foolish to expect any real insights by studying its past performance (whether in bull markets or the impact of halving).

Nevertheless, comparing Bitcoin’s bull market trends so far with its previous major rebounds shows some correlation: its returns are almost identical to the previous two trends: 170% in 2023, 165% in 2020, and 140% in late 2015.

These rebounds reached their peak after several years with returns of thousands of percent, although this time it may be comparatively less impressive, as bull market returns have been decreasing in each cycle.

Bull markets also do not progress in a straight line, even during months of upward trends, it is common to experience price adjustments across cycles, ranging from 30% to 50%.

Nevertheless, the past two bull markets have lasted over two and a half years, so if the bull market truly returns, it may still be too early.

We will continue to update Blocking; if you have any questions or suggestions, please contact us!