Xinhuanet: BTC broke through 8,000 US dollars, is the long-term chess game still a safe haven?

Recently, despite the strong risk aversion in the global market, Bitcoin has revived the hot market. On the 13th, the price of a single bitcoin broke through the $8,000 mark. The bitcoin that jumped was a long-selling game or a safe haven, which once again triggered investor attention and speculation.

Market analysts believe that the momentum of this round of bitcoin is still unclear, and market manipulation and short-term factors are still not ruled out. Although some cryptocurrency fans believe that bitcoin is digital gold, given its relatively short history and its ups and downs, whether it can become a new safe-haven asset remains to be seen cautiously.

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Recently, Bitcoin's gains have been strong. The US Bitcoin Base Company data shows that the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated from 5317.4 US dollars at 0:00 on May 1, and it once surged to 8291.23 USD on the 14th, an increase of more than 50%.

The concept of Bitcoin was proposed in 2008 and was officially born in 2009. Looking back, the last bitcoin price jump occurred at the end of 2017, when a single price broke through $19,000. Although there were risk factors such as tensions between the DPRK and the United States at the time, the US stock price was in the upward channel, and the bitcoin price rising in parallel with the stock market did not show the “reverse fluctuation” characteristics of the safe-haven assets. Subsequently, bitcoin prices peaked and fell sharply until they fell below $4,000. It can be seen that the speculative characteristics of the bitcoin market more than a year ago are relatively more obvious.

Bitcoin has always been regarded as a high-risk asset by investors due to large price fluctuations. Recently, bitcoin has been “leading” in the environment of accumulating market risk, so market participants claim that it has a safe haven asset. The function.

Dan Helder, co-founder of Interchange, a provider of cryptocurrency management, said Bitcoin’s “recovery” showed its potential for safe-haven trading. The British "Financial Times" columnist Jemima Kelly wrote an article recently, compared to other risk assets that have recently fallen, the performance of Bitcoin against the trend shows the characteristics of its safe-haven assets.

In addition, this round of bitcoin market is also showing more resilience than before. The well-known cryptocurrency exchange currency has reported more than 7,000 bitcoins in recent days, but the news did not significantly weaken the bitcoin price gains. Relevant professional institutions said that the market did not respond too much to negative news may be a key sign of the end of the "bitcoin winter".

Investors are worried about price manipulation

However, many investors and scholars believe that the underlying reasons behind this price increase are still unclear. The long-short game is still the main cause of price fluctuations in the Bitcoin market. It does not rule out the possibility of market manipulation, and considers Bitcoin as a safe haven. Assets may be too early.

Tim Massad, former chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, believes that no one really knows the reason for the rise, and manipulation may be a factor because it lacks regulation and transparency compared to other markets.

John Griffin, a professor of finance at the University of Texas, believes that manipulation is probably the reason behind the recent market trend.

Old-school investors are particularly skeptical about Bitcoin. At the Berkshire Hathaway General Meeting of Shareholders held in early May, Warren Buffett, who has long held the concept of “value investing”, called Bitcoin “gambling machine”. He said that Bitcoin "has never produced anything", but the blockchain technology that gave birth to Bitcoin has "great prospects."

For the next bitcoin trend, analysts expect the bitcoin market to be of interest to investors. Forex Foreign Exchange Research Analyst Lukeman Otunnuga said that the "golden cross" of bitcoin prices has emerged. In the investment analysis, this represents a further increase in the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average, which means that the short-term trend of the price is stronger than the long-term trend, but the real market still needs to continue to observe and be verified by the market. (Xinhua)

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