Ultimate Bitcoin Investment Checklist for 2024-2025

Essential Guide Investing in Bitcoin for 2024-2025

Source: Web3 Insights

In this article, I will provide actionable insights by breaking down the historical Bitcoin price cycles, with a focus on the 2019, 2015, and current 2023 cycles. We will delve into the world of Bitcoin investing and see what lessons history can teach us.

Additionally, we will analyze the key market forces that impact the crypto landscape, from the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs to the intricate US presidential elections. Most importantly, we will devise a meticulous exit strategy to ensure we have the ability to capitalize on the highs and gracefully exit before the tide turns.

Understanding the Macro Triangle of Bitcoin

A recurring pattern in Bitcoin price cycles is the formation of a macro triangle. These triangles often form before a halving event, which is a significant event in the Bitcoin supply schedule. The blue vertical lines on the chart indicate the halving events.

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2015 Cycle

In the 2015 cycle, we observed breakouts, retests, and continuations. After the breakout, Bitcoin entered a phase of accumulation, which lasted several months until the halving. Later, it retested this accumulation range before eventually paving the way for a parabolic rise to new all-time highs.

2019 Cycle

In 2019, Bitcoin rallied until the halving. However, it experienced a period of consolidation before the halving, followed by a strong rebound. So, although the 2019 cycle did not retest like in 2015, it did exhibit the characteristic rebound before the halving.

2023 Cycle

The current 2023 cycle seems to fuse elements of both the 2015 and 2019 cycles. We have witnessed a breakout followed by a phase of accumulation at higher price levels. While the characteristic of this phase is consolidation, it is laying the foundation for future development. The macro downtrend is clearly ending, and the macro uptrend has begun.

Key Phases to Watch

Pre-Halving Period (84 days)

We are currently around 84 days away from the next halving event. This period is crucial as it sets the stage for the future.

Rebound before the Halving

Before the halving, we tend to observe both upward and downward movements. In 2019, this resulted in a V-shaped reversal, while in 2016, it led to consolidation. The rebound before the halving is a recurring trend that can provide deeper insights into the current cycle.

Pre-Halving Pullback

A pre-halving pullback usually occurs in the weeks leading up to the halving event. It involves a correction in the price of Bitcoin. The nature of this pullback may vary, but it is a critical stage that needs to be monitored.

What Will Happen in 2023

In the next 80 days, we can expect scenarios like re-accumulation or upward volatility. This period is filled with uncertainty, so it is crucial to closely monitor the price trends of Bitcoin.

If the 2016 cycle repeats itself, we may see a prolonged consolidation at the current high point. In contrast, if the 2019 cycle repeats, there is an expected upward trend leading to a bounce before the halving.

Re-accumulation and Buying Opportunities

From now until April 24th, there may be excellent buying opportunities during deeper pullbacks. In 2019, a major crash provided an ideal point for re-accumulation, while in 2015, a sideways trend offered opportunities for strategic accumulation. This will be similar in this bull market cycle as well.

Once the pre-halving phase is completed, Bitcoin usually enters the post-halving parabolic phase, eventually reaching new all-time highs.

So how can you play this bull market for success?

Step 1: Build your portfolio foundation with Bitcoin and Ethereum

• Primary investments: Hold Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a recommended allocation of 15%-25% for both.

• This approach is based on the stability of these assets and their relatively lower volatility compared to smaller altcoins. You should always use these two as the foundation of your cryptocurrency investments.

Step 2: Focus on specific altcoin industries

• Industry selection: Identify and focus on 2-3 cryptocurrency industries that you understand and are interested in. Personally, I believe gaming, DeFi, and artificial intelligence have tremendous potential for the next cycle.

Step 3: Understand major market forces

• Key events: Four significant events could be key catalysts for the 2024 market trends: 1. Approval of a Bitcoin ETF 2. Bitcoin halving 3. US Presidential election 4. Quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.

• Understanding these events and their potential impact on the market is crucial for seizing investment opportunities and predicting market trends.

Step 4: Develop an exit strategy

• Importance of an exit strategy: Emphasizing the importance of having an exit strategy to avoid getting trapped during the late stages of a bull market cannot be overstated.

• Exit conditions: I have three conditions for exiting the market: reaching Bitcoin price targets (which I will discuss in a future article), a set time frame (end of 2025), or a breakthrough in key price patterns (a drop below the 21-week EMA or 200-day EMA).

Understanding the price cycles and historical trends of Bitcoin can provide investors with valuable insights. With the 2024 halving event approaching, it is important to closely monitor the current pre-halving phases as they may shape the future trajectory of Bitcoin. While historical patterns can guide us, it must be remembered that the market is known for its unpredictability.

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