Analysis: Buy BTC at any price, hold up to 1335 days, and be 100% profitable

According to the analysis of BitcoinEconomics, the necessary time for profit taking Bitcoin is 1,335 days or about 3 years and 8 months, which means that anyone buying Bitcoin at any price will be 100% profitable within 1335 days. . This necessary time is roughly related to the length of the four-year cycle based on the halving of the BTC award.

WX20190910-131236@2x

Bitcoin profit probability chart. Source: BitcoinEconomics.io

Profiting from bitcoin requires patience

Based on this probability data, if you have already bought at the top of BTC's historical price, it will take up to 1,335 days before Bitcoin finally breaks through the 2017 all-time high. In other words, BTC will have a high probability of breaking through the high of $19,000 between 2019 and 2021.

Suppose you buy at the highest point in a wave of gains. Holding Bitcoin for 317 days will give you a 75% chance of profit. Holding Bitcoin for 35 days will also give you a 60% chance to turn it over. The probability of making a profit is 50%.

If this sounds like a long time, we can compare it with the S&P 500 index. In order to make a profit on 100% of the S&P 500, you have to hold 23 years.

Also, keep in mind that this analysis is purely about the probability of profit, not the size of the profit. When Bitcoin is in a bull market, the profit available from the BTC dwarfs the stock market index. For example, the Gray Bitcoin Investment Trust has outperformed all assets so far in 2019 and has appreciated nearly 300% year-to-date.

We will continue to update Blocking; if you have any questions or suggestions, please contact us!

Share:

Was this article helpful?

93 out of 132 found this helpful

Discover more

Blockchain

Double eleven shopping to send bitcoin, this app did

Bitcoin startup Lolli announced that the company's users who shop on Alibaba can get a 5% bitcoin as a reward. L...

Blockchain

Destroy the bitcoin of Nakamoto! In order not to let the "fake books" be awkward, some people suggested

Today, many people on the Internet claim to be "Zhong Ben Cong" deities, such as Craig Wright, Estonian sci...

Blockchain

Analyst: BTC key position is approaching, technical indicators release buy signal

The code word is better than the market. Bitcoin has now exceeded the $4,900 mark on major exchanges, up 18%+, and th...

Blockchain

If ETF is approved, it may trigger a sell-off shift

Bitcoin has recently surged in anticipation of the first US Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) potentially being...

Blockchain

US lawmakers: If Facebook can use Bitcoin directly, there will not be so much trouble.

US Congressman Warren Davidson said that Facebook’s direct addition of Bitcoin to the Calibra wallet would be ...

Blockchain

Former CFTC Chairman: The launch of futures has pierced the bitcoin bubble, and bitcoin prices are more easily manipulated

According to recent media reports, Christopher Giancarlo, chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CF...