About my judgment and review of Solana

My Assessment and Critique of Solana

Author: Jason Chen, Independent Researcher Source: X (formerly Twitter) @jason_chen998

Sol is the top-performing major cryptocurrency in this wave, bought at 18 and sold at 31, with a return rate of 70%. Let’s analyze the logic behind this process and discuss the outlook for Sol going forward.

There are two main reasons why many people are not optimistic about Sol:

1. No whales: After the FTX collapse, Sol suffered a significant drop to 8 dollars, leading many to believe that there are no whales behind Sol to support its rise.

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2. An old project from the previous cycle: It is difficult for old projects to thrive across two cycles, commonly known as “chasing the new, not the old.”

So why did I decide to buy Sol after analyzing its fundamentals and continue to add to my position midway? There are four main reasons:

1. External forces: Sol gives me a strong feeling that both the mainstream forces of Web3 and Web2 are supporting it, which is the biggest confidence booster for me. Web3’s mainstream forces include Vitalik and MakerDAO, who have spoken up for Sol during critical moments. Vitalik defended Sol, stating that it is undervalued, while MakerDAO romantically proclaimed Sol to be the most promising codebase. The founder of Bankless, in their recent article, expressed the third question about the relationship between Sol and Ethereum. Web2’s mainstream forces include Visa’s intention to use Sol for B2B settlements, and VanEck specifically published an article predicting Sol’s rise to 3211. It is very rare to see such strong support from multiple mainstream forces in both Web3 and Web2 for Sol.

2. Internal forces: Sol had intensive hackathons in October and November, and recently launched an accelerator program, indicating that they are investing resources in the developer ecosystem and sending a signal that the team is determined to make progress.

3. An important detail that many people overlook is that Jump Crypto has developed a validator node specifically for Solana. Running a validator node on a chain is almost risk-free business, as long as there are transactions happening on that chain. Jump Crypto, as a leading market maker, went ahead and set up a validator node for Sol, and the signal behind this move is self-explanatory… I believe most people have overlooked this detail.

4. The Ethereum killer story never ends. Sol, the killer from the previous cycle, is still alive, and as for the killers in this cycle, the two brothers Move, I won’t comment on their current status… So, among the shorties, Sol has a chance to fight again.

Considering these factors, I believed that Sol was worth buying at that time, and the reason for selling at 31 was for risk mitigation. As I mentioned on Twitter the day before yesterday, the supporting factors for this market’s surge are too singular and completely unpredictable, namely the ETF. The market is jittery until the official ruling on January 10th. Therefore, if the gains meet the target, it’s best to exit for safety.

I will continue to keep an eye on Sol and place it on my watchlist. Currently, in this volatile market state, I won’t buy as the risks are too high. However, if the entire market experiences a pullback and Sol still has favorable fundamentals after my continued observation, rather than the team taking profits and running, I will consider entering a position if the price drops below 25 and there is no sustained downward movement.

Please note that all of the above is written after as rigorous, rational, and objective analysis as possible. The market is constantly changing, and the business and prices often experience serious deviations, so it is not possible to guarantee absolute correctness. I have also made mistakes in the past, so this is not investment advice, but rather sharing logical thinking. The purpose of the analysis is to seek certainty in uncertainty, rather than obtaining a direct answer, otherwise it would be no different from fortune-telling.

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