On the eve of Facebook's currency, BTC broke through $9,300, setting a new high for nearly a year.

On June 14, the number of Bitcoin daily active addresses exceeded 1 million.

According to the data of the Firecoin Global Station, on June 16, BTC once broke through 9300 USDT, setting a new high for nearly a year (since May 9, 2018). At the same time, on June 14, the number of Bitcoin daily active addresses exceeded 1 million, which is the first time this indicator has broken this standard since 2019.

At present, the BTC quotations of the three major exchanges are more than 9,000 US dollars, of which the fire currency is temporarily reported at 9123 US dollars, the OKEx is temporarily reported at 9131 US dollars, and the currency security is temporarily reported at 9140 US dollars.

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Mainstream currencies are bullish

Previously, the industry generally believed that $9,000 would become a major resistance for BTC. BTC also quickly retreated after breaking through the resistance level two weeks ago (May 31).

Token panda COO Shao Qiqi told Odaily Planet Daily that BTC broke through three pressures of 8300, 8600 and 9000, mainly driven by overseas funds.

“The price of USDT deposits and withdrawals is constantly falling, and it has been as low as the offshore RMB level. On the contrary, the US dollar deposits have a premium on USDT. It is incredible. We can only think that this round of promotion is initiated by overseas funds. The specific reasons are unknown. In the best case, the SEC has new good news leaked in advance," he said.

"This time BTC prices have risen, mainly due to fundamentals, FB (Facebook) and Bakkt and other big factors, pushing more French users to access the blockchain, and other mainstream currencies are rising." Future Money partner Li Zhe also It is believed that the new funds have entered the market to promote this price increase. "This year, large institutions will enter the market and more favorable mainstream currencies."

OK Research senior researcher Li Lianxuan gave his analysis from the technical side. He believes that from the technical analysis point of view, on June 14, BTC's 5-day moving average broke above the 15-day moving average, and the trading volume also rebounded from the previous week, signaling the market to enter an upward trend; from MACD Look, the MACD line also broke through the signal line on June 14 and issued a buy signal, so it is basically confirmed from June 14 that the market enters the upstream channel.

At present, there is a significant price difference between the price of BTC futures ($2,227) and the spot ($9,120) on the Firecoin and OKEx platforms. What does this mean?

Ma Yuantian, a senior researcher at Guncoin, believes that the deviation between contract price and spot price reflects whether price fluctuations are reasonable. “In general, the price depth of the platform, the trading users, and the level of risk control determine the price deviation. In addition, the contract price reflects the investor's expectation of future prices, and the contract index is higher than the spot index, indicating that users are bullish on the future of BTC.”

Li Lianxuan also believes that the spread will mean that the market is bullish. "The futures contract has not yet reached the delivery date. The big spread indicates that the market believes that the future market is optimistic, which also reflects the encouragement of this round of rising market confidence."

According to CoinMarketCap data, the market value of the entire cryptocurrency market currently stands at $284.8 billion, with BTC accounting for 57%. At the same time that the BTC is rising sharply, what will happen to other altcoins?

For the altcoin, Li Zhe is not optimistic.

"Small coins are not solid in fundamentals. Second, the plates are too small, and large funds cannot participate."

The mainstream currency such as BTC is gratifying, but the market does not seem to drive the upward trend of platform coins, and the platform currency is fluctuating at a high level.

Li Lianxuan said that the platform currency was mainly affected by the relevant news of the platform, and there was already a large increase in the previous period, so this round did not follow the rise.

Li Zhe is optimistic about the platform coin. "The increase in platform currency is not small, and the leading currency Ann Announces that binance.com will no longer provide services for individuals and businesses in the United States after September 12 this year. About 20% of the monthly traffic from the US is from US customers. It will bring pain, but it will not affect the long-term leading platform currency."

Ma Yuantian believes that the linkage effect of platform currency is a relatively slow but solid process, because the platform currency is linked to the trading volume of the transaction. For example, the global currency station will use the spot and contract 20% transaction fee income to destroy HT. The rise in Bitcoin will in turn lead to an increase in trading volume, so the rise in Bitcoin will also be transmitted to the platform currency.

News: The strongest regulation is coming, the Facebook white paper is about to be released

The news has always had a profound impact on cryptocurrencies. What other news may have an impact on cryptocurrencies this year?

Because the "Black Swan Incident" is unpredictable, it is not within the scope of this article.

First, strong regulation may affect the movement of cryptocurrencies. According to Bloomberg News, IFLA spokesperson Alexandra Wijmenga-Daniel said on June 21 that the agency will issue a report clarifying how participating countries should monitor virtual assets. The new rules will apply to businesses that use tokens and cryptocurrencies, such as exchanges, custodians, and encrypted hedge funds.

Eric Turner, research director at cryptographic research firm Messari Inc., believes:

"The FATF's recommendations may be much greater than the impact of the US SEC or any other regulatory agency to date."

Secondly, the Internet social media giant Facebook entered the cryptocurrency field, and will release the stable currency GlobalCoin on June 18, and will anchor multinational currency.

It is important to note that Facebook’s “currency” behavior is not just for internal settlement, but to combine this stable currency with its advertising business for user creation, sharing, etc. The stable currency can be used for shopping, payment, credit card payment, salary payment, and the like. Currently, Visa, MasterCard, PayPal and Uber all support the stable currency released by Facebook.

Facebook's issue of currency will encourage other traditional companies to enter the cryptocurrency, which will drive the currency tide. It is still unknown. For the industry, with the new capital inflows and the increase in attention, the price of cryptocurrencies will also rise. "Given Facebook's massive users and huge market influence, the general public's understanding of encrypted digital currency will further deepen, which is a long-term positive for the digital currency market." Li Lianxuan told the Odaily Planet Daily.

But some economists are not optimistic about the Facebook issue, and economist Peter Schiff thinks Facebook's Globalcoin is bad news for Bitcoin.

On June 14, Peter Schiff said that Facebook's cryptocurrency project "Libra" (ie Globalcoin) was bad news for Bitcoin. Facebook will target the growth market on which Bitcoin depends, that is, non-bank account users in high-inflation countries. Libra (Globalcoin) will be stable and will be more convenient and less expensive to use as a medium of exchange than Bitcoin. But the truth is that Schiff assumes that Globalcoin is more popular than Bitcoin in all cases, but this assumption is biased and may be wrong. In fact, some people think that this new cryptocurrency is not a direct competitor to Bitcoin.

In addition, Bakkt, a BTC futures trading platform developed by ICE, the parent company of NYSE, plans to conduct user testing of BTC futures on July 22. The futures will be traded on ICE Futures US and settled on ICE Clear US. It is worth noting that the exchange has obtained a license from the New York Financial Supervisory Authority, and the exchange will be available soon after the test is passed.

Li Lianxuan believes that Bakkt, as a digital asset trading platform led by ICE (American Intercontinental Exchange), has been concerned by the market, and its products have stricter standards in terms of compliance and security. “Once the BTC futures contract is launched, Funds from traditional institutions may enter the market."

On December 11 and 18, 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) followed the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to launch bitcoin futures contracts. At the end of the year, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $20,000.

Finally, the SEC may decide to make a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) this fall. At present, Vaneck & Solidx and VanEck's Bitcoin ETF have not yet been approved, and are widely optimistic in the industry.

On June 14, VanEck's digital asset strategist Gabor Gurbacs said in an interview that the US SEC's final decision on the Bitcoin ETF is set to be "in the fall" and that it will take VanEck the necessary time to resolve any pending issues that the regulator may encounter. The problem. Regarding the actual probability of ETF approval, Gurbacs kept his mouth shut, he said:

“It’s like a multi-billion dollar or more problem. The Bitcoin ETF is a trading tool. I think the approval of the Bitcoin ETF is for the public good, with liquidity, custody, regulatory and tax benefits. , so I think it is in the best interest of the regulator to approve the Bitcoin ETF."

Once the ETF is passed, traditional funds and investors will flood into the cryptocurrency sector, boosting prices.

How is the market outlook?

Regarding the operation of the market, Shao Xiaoqi's suggestion is to continue to hold. "There is no more than a single profit to continue to hold, or that sentence, the trend will not end easily."

"In the short term, I will not make judgments, and I will definitely go up in the long run. (BTC) The next resistance is at 10,000-11,000 (US$)." Li Zhe said.

Li Lianxuan believes that from the current development trend, this year has a great probability to break through the threshold of 10,000 US dollars, but the time is uncertain.

Many analysts also gave their views on the support and pressure of the BTC market outlook.

Li Lianxuan gave the answer from the technical side. He believes that the resistance of the BTC daily line is at $9,300.

"From the perspective of the RSI indicator, the current RSI indicator is below 70, indicating that the market has not yet entered the overbought condition. The top of the market at this stage has not yet formed; from the MACD brush map, the current brush map is above the zero line, and There is no downward reentry, indicating that the upward trend of BTC has not lost momentum. Therefore, from the technical indicators level, BTC will continue to climb in the short term. From the BTC daily chart, the current resistance is at $9,300. Price level," he said.

According to cryptocurrency analyst Alex Krüger, BTC's short-term support is $9000, while resistance is up to $20,000. “After breaking through $9, the next resistance levels for BTC are 9600, 10000, 11500-11750, 13000, 15000, 17400, 20000; BTC support levels are 9000, 8800, 8500, 8100-8000, 7600 respectively. -7400, 7200, 6800, 6400."

Recently, cryptocurrency enthusiast Kevin Rooke posted a CoinMetrics.io data analysis graph on Twitter. The information in the figure shows that on June 14, the number of Bitcoin daily active addresses exceeded 1 million, which is the first time this indicator has broken this standard since 2019. Kevin Rooke further explained that when Bitcoin broke through the 1 million active addresses for the first time (November 27, 2017), the bitcoin price was $9,352 and the median transaction fee was $3.23. On June 14, the bitcoin price was At $8,230, the median transaction fee is $1.33. This also means that BTC still has a strong room for growth.

The prediction of BTC prices has always been a long-standing topic.

According to the recent Stock-to-Flow ratio chart analysis, as of August 2020, bitcoin prices could reach $60,000. This price forecast is also related to the halving of the Bitcoin block discount in May 2020 – halving will reduce the number of bitcoins produced in a single block, driving the price of the BTC.

The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio model is the number of available or reserve assets divided by the number produced each year. The Stock-to-Flow ratio is an important indicator because the higher indicator value in S2F reflects the reduction in the annual inflation rate of the asset. Gold is one of the stock-to-Flow ratios, and its scarcity value makes it the first choice for investors around the world.

According to the chart, it can be observed that the bitcoin S2F index after halving is expected to be 55.92, which will make its intrinsic value very close to gold.

In addition, well-known analyst PlanB also recently predicted that Bitcoin could break through the market value of $1 trillion in 2028. This forecast is also based on the Stock-to-Flow ratio model.

Author | Qin Xiaofeng, Wang Ye

Produced | Odaily Planet Daily

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