QKL123 market analysis | Blockchain organization innovation, crypto assets are indispensable (1126)

Abstract: So far yesterday, the market rebounded strongly after the market fell, but Bitcoin has not broken through the strong resistance above it, and the short-term market shocks have accumulated power. In the long run, if the broad market can return to the 200-day moving average in a short period of time, the trend may be repaired, otherwise it will continue to find the bottom. Blockchain technology is not just a solution to application problems, it may also bring about the evolution of economic organizations.

According to QKL123 data statistics, at 13:00 on November 26, 2019, the total market value of the global token market was 1,410.407 billion yuan, with a 24-hour total market value increase or decrease of + 6.79%, with a total turnover of 654.562 billion yuan, and a total turnover change of -17.87% , Market activity has decreased. The Babbitt Composite Index was reported at 9998.88 points, with a 24-hour rise or fall of + 7.44%, reflecting a sharp rebound in the broad market; the Bitcoin Strength Index reported at 97.23 points, a 24-hour rise or fall of + 0.16%, and the relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market has changed slightly. Strong; Alternative sentiment index is 21 (previous value 17), market sentiment is still extremely fearful.

Among the top ten crypto assets by market value (excluding USDT), BSV has the largest increase in 24 hours (+ 15.35%), and XRP has the smallest increase in 24 hours (+ 4.17%). USDT's 24-hour rise and fall was -0.23%. Today's net outflow of funds was 56.344 million yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday; USDC's 24-hour rise and fall was + 0.02%, and the net inflow of funds today was 163,500 yuan, which was basically the same as yesterday; The discount premium index was reported at 100.24, and the 24-hour price fluctuation was -0.57%.

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In the past day, the global Google search relative value (peak 86) of Bitcoin has dropped from the previous value (peak 90), which is close to the one-month average. The top seven countries and regions are Nigeria (100), Netherlands (50), Austria (45), Switzerland (43), Germany (42), South Africa (40) and Singapore (36). The value has increased significantly. In the past day, the global Google search relative value (peak 59) of Ethereum has dropped from the previous value (peak 71). The increase in related queries is related to Ethereum mining.

Analyst's point of view:

Yesterday news, the social network giants Facebook and Twitter reproduced the data leak, the data of hundreds of users may have been accessed improperly. With the generation and storage of a large amount of user data, the use risks brought by centralized databases to users are becoming increasingly prominent. Moreover, the concentration of massive amounts of data on oligopoly companies will magnify this effect. Using blockchain technology, a "decentralized enterprise" can perform distributed storage to improve the security and privacy of data, thereby meeting the needs of users.

Distributed ledger technology can make the company's information open, transparent, and difficult to tamper with, which can greatly alleviate the problems caused by information asymmetry, and can reduce the transmission cost of information or value. Moreover, in the case of the generation of massive data in the future, companies can use smart contracts to automatically process all aspects of economic behavior on the chain, so that the data is valued (priced), and information will be transmitted and interacted in a form close to value. This will reduce the value transfer process. The token in the system will exist in the form of encrypted assets and will become one of the main carriers of value.

Blockchain technology is used to solve application problems and is also likely to bring about organizational changes. From ancient times to today, the main organizational forms of human activities have continuously evolved: from tribal groups divided by region in primitive society, to family operations under natural economic conditions, to contract organizations in feudal society, and to company organizations under market economic conditions . Today, a new economic organization form, the community economy, has emerged with the development of distributed ledger technologies such as blockchain.

Taking Bitcoin as an example, Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer payment system, and important participants include miners, developers, users, and token holders. Bitcoin participants use BTC tokens as mining rewards (maintaining network operation), rewards for token holders (long-term investors), developer compensation (donations from token holders or developer holding coins), and user fees (transactions) fee). This is very different from corporate incentives. Companies often use stocks or wage contracts to complete incentives or returns to shareholders, managers, employees and users. Compared with corporate organizations, the community economy using tokens can make the incentives diverse and flexible, allowing participants in various links to obtain more direct returns, and then give full play to the subjective initiative of participants and the role of market regulation mechanisms (the participants can participate freely All links and advances and retreats).

In addition, analyst Willy Woo tweeted yesterday: "If Bitcoin cannot close above $ 8,300 before the end of the month, it may drop to a new low in December. There will be a good market in 2020. Personally I hope Bitcoin will continue to fall to make Cheap buy ". First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, BTC touched a strong rebound of US $ 6,500. The oversold of the daily RSI indicator eased, and the highest rebounded to US $ 7,400, but it did not break through the US $ 7,500 resistance level. The short-term range mainly fluctuated (US $ 7,000 to US $ 7,500). From the historical trend point of view, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly when it started to deviate significantly from the 200-day moving average, indicating that the market is still likely to be repaired in a short time, otherwise the market will continue to test $ 6,000.

Fund face

As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 14,170,600 yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 206.258 million yuan, the net inflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 42.348 million yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) had net inflows. The outflow was 110.898 million yuan, and the net outflow for small orders (under 50,000 yuan) was 172.436 million yuan. The market is quite divergent and the main players are bullish, but the net outflow of Chinese single funds is mostly.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average BTC hashrate of the entire network was 86.56EH / s, a decrease from the previous day, below the one-month average, mining came to a break-even point, some miners had negative returns, and miners stepped on the chain at a higher risk; The number of active addresses was 642,100, which was a slight increase from the previous day, which was lower than the one-month average; the on-chain transaction volume was 131,500, which was an increase from the previous day, and was higher than the one-month average; the number of coin-day destruction was 13.202 million (the median historical value) ), The number of destruction of the currency for four consecutive days is high, and there is a certain risk of selling pressure in the short term.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH touched a minimum of 131 US dollars yesterday. After the rebound, it did not break through the resistance level. At present, it has fluctuated below 150 US dollars and linked BTC for a short time.

Fund face

As of 15:00, today's net inflow of funds for ETH was 13.2288 million yuan. Among them, the net outflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 28.132 million yuan, the net inflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 82.936 million yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) had net outflows. The inflow was 51.917 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (under 50,000 yuan) was 11.811187 million yuan. The market is severely divided, with small single net outflows mostly.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has picked up slightly. The number of 24-hour active users of the game application My Crypto Heroes is 2.7k, with a 24-hour change of + 7.66%; the number of 24-hour active users of the financial application MakerDAO is 2.1k, with a 24-hour change of -2.11%.

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC reached a minimum of 42 US dollars, and the rebound was relatively weak. Yesterday's number of days of destruction of the currency was a historically large value, and the risk of short-term selling pressure was greater.

Fund face

As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 333,833,300 yuan. Among them, the net outflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 12.037708 million yuan, the net outflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 926.61 yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) had net outflows. 103.769 million yuan, the net outflow of small orders (under 50,000 yuan) was 10.041192 million yuan. The market is consistently bearish, with net outflows mostly oversized.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average network computing power of LTC was 162.45 TH / s, which was an increase from the previous day, and hit another one-month low, which was close to the low of the year. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (57,400) increased slightly from the previous day and was lower than the one-month average; the number of coin days destroyed was 125 million (smaller historical value), a sharp increase from yesterday, a one-month high, and short-term selling pressure The risk is greater.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

EOS hit a minimum of $ 2.3 yesterday and rebounded strongly today, but it did not break through resistance and adjusted for a short time.

Fund face

As of 15:00, EOS ’s net inflow of funds today was 106,535,300 yuan. Among them, the net outflow of oversized orders (1 million yuan or more) was 3.107 million yuan, the net outflows of large orders (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) were 4.402 million yuan, and the middle orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) The inflow was 38.325 million yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (under 50,000 yuan) was 75.526 million yuan. There are differences in the market, the mainstream is slightly empty, and small inflows are the main ones.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has declined. The number of 24-hour users of the game EOS Dynasty is 1k, which is -21.16% more than yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users of the trading application Newdex is 888, which is + 12.26% more than yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC has begun to deteriorate. If the market rebounds and weakens, those with heavy positions can lighten up. The relative price of BTC of smart contract platform leader ETH, altcoin leader LTC, DPoS leader EOS is close to the low point of the year. If the market rebounds and weakens, those with heavy positions can lighten up.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Bitcoin has been repaired after it deviated from the 200-day moving average. Those with heavy positions can lighten up on rallies, and those without heavy positions wait and see.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Wide shock, wait and see.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2. Bitcoin strength index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.

3.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

5. Google search trend

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

6. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

7. Currency Day Destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

8. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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