QKL123 market analysis | Ethereum can rise again, DeFi or can give an answer (0912)

Abstract: Recently, Bitcoin continued to oscillate along the convergence triangle. After the rebound of the altcoin, the new support level was tested. The bulls have risen and are expected to step out of the stage bottom. For more than half a year, decentralized finance has been a slogan, and Ethereum is one of its important infrastructures. In the future, there is the possibility of winning Bitcoin.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on September 12, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,866.689 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -0.35%, the total turnover was 373.30 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +1.43%. The market activity has increased slightly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13299.42 points, with a 24-hour rise and fall of -0.73%; the Alternative sentiment index was 39, a slight increase from yesterday (38), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BSV had the largest decline in 24 hours (-6.91%), and XLM had the largest increase in 24 hours (+0.80%). BTC rose by -0.13% in 24 hours, market share (68.59%) was slightly higher than yesterday (68.35%), and market risk aversion was still high. USDT's 24-hour ups and downs were +0.04%. Today's net inflow of funds was 874,788,400 yuan, which was significantly higher than yesterday. ChaiNext USDT's over-the-counter discount index was 100.02 points, and the 24-hour price was +0.14%.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 90) fell slightly from yesterday (peak 93), higher than the seven-day average. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Ghana (49), South Africa (48), Brazil (45), Austria (42), Switzerland (41) and Germany (40). In the past seven days, the average value of Bitcoin's Baidu search index (38,842) was 31% lower than the previous seven days, but it was up 27% from the same period last year.

Analyst's point of view: Recently, Nasdaq and others have added a new index Defix (DEFX) index, which aims to provide market information for decentralized finance (DeFi) projects. Currently covered projects include Augur, Gnosis, Maker, Numerai, 0x And Amoveo. Among them, the first five projects are based on the decentralized application of Ethereum, Augur, Gnosis, Numerai and Amoveo are predictive market projects, Maker is a loan project, and 0x is a decentralized transaction project. Compared with payment system projects such as Bitcoin, decentralized application projects have more room for growth, but at the same time are associated with higher risks. At present, decentralized finance is a cusp, which is one of the main reasons for the support of Ethereum's market value. In the future, whether Ethereum will take the rise of Bitcoin, perhaps DeFi can tell you the answer. Recently, the relative price of Ethereum is close to the new low in the year, and the future bull market hopes to outperform Bitcoin.

First, the spot BTC market

In a short period of time, yesterday's BTC dropped upwards after the $9880, and it is now slightly fluctuating around $10,100. In the short-term, it has tended to converge downward along the upper edge of the convergence triangle, but the downside is limited, and it is expected to stabilize in the near future.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 19,1973,240 yuan, a decrease from the previous period (380,673,600 yuan). Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 68,420,600 yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 1,84,921,000 yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. Outflow of 96571.20 yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 16248.00 yuan. There are differences in the market, with large orders and medium orders being mostly reduced.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC network was 94.18EH/s, which was higher than the previous day (90.58EH/s), a record high, and the long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain was 700,600, compared with the previous day (80.73). 10,000) has decreased, approaching a one-month average. Yesterday, the number of coins destroyed was 18.5091 million (historical median), which was significantly higher than the previous day (386.43 million). In a short period of time, it may bring some selling pressure, but the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

Last night, ETH fell to a low of $173 and then fluctuated slightly. It is currently oscillating around $177. The relative price of ETH's BTC has dropped from the high point of 0.0180 BTC. At present, it is slightly fluctuating near 0.0175 BTC, and its performance has turned weak.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 1,12,579,100 yuan, an increase from the previous period (821,486,600 yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 146,168,400 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 39,724,400 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 935.40 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 804.90 million yuan. The market is mainly based on the reduction of positions in the market.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp was slightly reduced, and the new (6) was slightly lower than yesterday (8). Among them, the game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 1.7k, 24-hour change -2.65%; financial application MakerDAO 24-hour active users 1.7k, 24-hour change -4.73%; trading application IDEX 24-hour active users The number is 384, 24 hours change +21.90%.

Third, the spot LTC market

LTC returned to the previous day's volatility range, which is currently fluctuating around 70 US dollars, and there is a possibility of a short-term upswing. The LTC/BTC transaction is down against the volatility and is currently fluctuating around 0.0068BTC, showing relatively weak performance.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 203,353,900 yuan, a decrease from the previous day. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 2,877,100 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 4,129.15 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net outflow 7866.69 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 158.814 million yuan. The market is mostly reduced by small orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 288.80TH/s, which was lower than yesterday (332.47TH/s), a new low in the past month. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power decreased. This may be related to the exit of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (563.872 million, historical median), compared with the previous day (367.935 billion), the long-term trend has not been destroyed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 78,900, close to a one-month average.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

EOS rebounded shortly after dropping 3.6 US dollars in the evening. It has now rebounded to around 3.7 US dollars, and short-term linkage of Bitcoin. At the same time, the EOS/BTC trading pair continued to oscillate around 0.00037 BTC, and the short-term contraction was down.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net inflow of funds today was 3.8639 million yuan, an increase from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 9,594,900 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 7,763,300 yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 133,353,200 yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 25,481,500 yuan. The market is mostly small and small.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has increased, and the number of new ones (1) has decreased slightly from yesterday (2). Among them, the game's PROSPECTORS 24 hours of users 3k, compared with yesterday's change -0.50%; quiz application Dice's 24-hour active users 2.7k, compared with yesterday's change +104.22%; data application Lumeos 24-hour active users 1.5k, compared Yesterday's change -0.00%; trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users 1.9k, +37.11% change from yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year, and can be configured on a dip.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

In the near term, the market is expected to step out of the upward trend.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term range shocks, small positions are high and low.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

3.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

4. Google search trends

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

5. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

6. Coin-day destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

7. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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