QKL123 market analysis | fried market continues, waiting for the right signal (0828)

Abstract: Bitcoin fell slightly after 10,000 US dollars yesterday. Today, Bitcoin continues to adjust sideways, and market uncertainty increases. In the short term, the market will be partially adjusted or will continue for a while, waiting patiently for the near-right signal.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on August 28, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 19,063.30 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -0.87%, the total turnover was 326.194 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by -13.54%. Market activity continues to decline. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13657.68 points, with a 24-hour rise and fall of -0.83%; the Alternative sentiment index was 32, a slight increase from yesterday (30), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), XLM had the largest decline in 24 hours (-4.61%), and BSV had the largest increase in 24 hours (+2.08%). BTC rose by -0.52% in 24 hours, market share (67.73%) was slightly lower than yesterday (67.82%), ETH rose by -0.27% in 24 hours, market share (7.51%) was slightly lower than yesterday (7.50%) Increased, market risk aversion is still high. ChaiNext USDT OTC Index was reported at 99.59 points, up 24 hours to +0.43%, USDT was up or down at +0.21% for 24 hours, and today's net outflow was 5.237 million yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday (390.26 million).

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Today's global Bitcoin Google search relative value (peak 85) is basically the same as yesterday (peak 86), close to a three-month low. The top seven countries are Nigeria (100), Brazil (55), Austria (51), Ghana (49), South Africa (47), Switzerland (46) and Germany (45). Among them, the Ghana Bitcoin search heat (peak 96) increased significantly compared to yesterday (peak 66).

Analyst's point of view: Switzerland is a crypto-friendly country with its regulatory policy at the forefront of the world. Last year, it approved the first cryptographic asset ETP (an ETF-like trading fund). Recently, the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) has issued banking licenses to the encrypted asset service providers SEBA Crypto AG and Sygnum AG, which is also a milestone in this field. Such events contribute to the development of the industry and long-term benefits of cryptographic assets. At present, Bitcoin is in the partial adjustment stage after the opening of a new round of bull market. The adjustment may continue for a period of time. The local right-hand opening opportunity is expected to appear in the near future. The short-term sideways market risk is large, and the risk-averse person still needs to wait. Clear signal.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday morning, the BTC started to go down from $10,400 to a sideways adjustment around $10,100. It has continued to this day, and there is no obvious amount of release of the long-short glue. From the 4-hour k-line point of view, the BTC travels in the lower extension zone of the daily convergence triangle, and the MACD is close to zero. The possibility of continuing upward convergence or heavy volume breakthrough in a short period of time is not diminished.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 830,060,700 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net income of 126.7697 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 22,624,300 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 51.26 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 35.272 million yuan. The market is dominated by medium-sized positions.

2. Fundamentals

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 74.33EH/s, which is slightly higher than yesterday (74.17EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of coins destroyed was 11.7233 million (historical median), which was significantly higher than the previous day (566.48 million). The long-term uptrend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 728,400, a slight decrease from the previous day (7.477 million), close to the one-month average.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday evening, ETH rushed from the low point of 190 US dollars after the unsuccessful shock, and now slightly oscillated between 184 US dollars to 190 US dollars, the amount of energy is not significantly released. At 21 o'clock in the evening yesterday, the ETH/BTC trade rallied to 0.0187 BTC and then fell back to 0.0184 BTC.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 231,901,100 yuan, a decrease from yesterday (48,486,100 yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 73.299 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 83.136 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 35.231 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 257,709,500 yuan. There are certain differences in the market, mainly based on small singles.

2. Fundamentals

Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly. Among them, the game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.8k, 24 hours change -4.64%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.6k, 24 hours change + 14.68%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24 hours The number of active users is 1k, 24-hour change -0.01%; the number of 24-hour active users of the transaction application imToken Tokenlon is 836, 24 hours change +2.33%.

Third, the spot LTC market

Today, LTC continues to hover around $73. Just after the LTC/BTC transaction quickly dropped from 0.0071BTC to 0.0070BTC, it was quickly pulled back, short-term and small-volume.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 21,826,900 yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 61,915,700 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 9,235.06 yuan, and the net inflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 136.501 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 24,857,100 yuan. There are big differences in the market, and most of them are built with large orders.

2. Fundamentals

At present, LTC's total network computing power is 343.84TH/s, which is slightly higher than yesterday (340.98TH/s), which is close to the lowest point in three months. After the block reward is halved, the computing power will tend to decrease. Part of the miner's withdrawal or equipment elimination is related and it will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (677.162 million, historical median), compared with the previous day (466.51 million), the long-term trend has not been destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 10.2 million, which was significantly higher than the previous day (6.15 million), higher than the average of three months.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

From yesterday to today, EOS continued to fluctuate around 3.5 US dollars. The EOS/BTC trading volatility near 0.00035 BTC, showing strong first and then weak.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 56.626 million yuan, an increase from yesterday (915.264 million yuan). Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 6.833 million yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 3,829.79 yuan, and the net outflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 178.607 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 7,226,200 yuan. The market is mostly dominated by large orders and small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has decreased. Among them, the game PROSPECTORS 24-hour user number 3.2k, compared with yesterday's change -0.19%; quiz application Dice's 24-hour active users 1.9k, compared with yesterday's change -14.87%; data application Lumeos 24-hour active users 1.5k, Compared with yesterday's change +0.34%; trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users 1.1k, compared with yesterday's change -13.73%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The market of mad cows may come in the next one to two years, and it can be added on a dip. The intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, the DPoS leader EOS BTC transaction pair is in the low position of the year, can take the opportunity to reverse, the position is not heavy can be bargain-hunting configuration.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term BTCs are more likely to continue to adjust their reserves. If the positions are not heavy, they can increase their positions on a dip.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term range volatility, small position high throw low suction, broken stop loss.

Appendix – Index Interpretation

Babbitt Composite Index The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

Alternative Emotional Index The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in the market's mood, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

USDT Off- Site Depreciation Index ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

Net inflow of funds (out) This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days held by Bitcoin. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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