QKL123 market analysis | long and short glue $ 10,000, the main force will continue to wash (0822)

Abstract: Today's market fear index hit a new low in the year, the main force is still actively sucking up the market, and the market uncertainty is increasing in a short time. The short-term midline is still relatively high, and the long-term upward trend remains unchanged.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on August 22, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,869.457 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -7.07%, the total turnover was 429.203 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +94.44%. Market activity continues to increase. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13608.25 points, a 24-hour up-and-down of -1.67%; the Alternative sentiment index was 5, which continued to fall from yesterday (11), hitting a new low in the year, and the market was extremely fearful.

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Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market capitalization (excluding USDT), BSV had the largest decline in 24 hours (-2.14%), and XRP had the largest increase in 24 hours (+0.54%). BTC rose by -1.98% in 24 hours, market share (67.73%) was slightly lower than yesterday (68.11%), ETH rose by -1.23% in 24 hours, market share (7.57%) was slightly lower than yesterday (7.44%) Increased, market risk aversion is still high. ChaiNext USDT's off-exchange discount premium index was 99.90 points, with a 24-hour rise and fall of -0.33%. The net inflow of USDT today was 422.4608 million yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (840.552 million yuan).

Today, global Bitcoin's Google search trend relative value (peak 84) rebounded slightly from yesterday (peak 80), close to the average since the 7th. The top five countries are Nigeria (100), Brazil (61), Austria (54), South Africa (51) and Ghana (49). Among them, Ghana's search heat (peak 89) fell back from yesterday (peak 73).

Analyst's point of view: Today's market fear index hit a new low in the year. Bitcoin's trend is weak. At present, after 10,000 US dollars, the main force is still absorbing and shuffling, and the market uncertainty is increasing in a short time. The short-term shocks have adjusted the situation and the central line is still too much.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, the BTC slid to a low of $10,200 and then oscillated to $9,765 at 09:00. The Air Force was temporarily suppressed, but the upside momentum was clearly insufficient and the short-term uncertainty increased. From the 4-hour K-line, the current BTC is in the downward extension zone of the short-term convergence triangle. If it does not converge upwards in a short time, it may be bad. It is necessary to continue to observe the direction of energy.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 799.721 million, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 5.688.1 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 17702.20 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. Inflow of 99.8.40 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 25474.20 million. There are big differences in the market, and most of them are reduced by small orders.

2. Fundamentals

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 72.46EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (73.33EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of coins destroyed was 5,906,200 (historically smaller), which was smaller than the previous day (662.67 million). The long-term uptrend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 757,100, a slight increase from the previous day (738,300), slightly higher than the average of the past month.

Second, the spot ETH market

Recently, ETH has a relatively large fluctuation relative to BTC, generally fluctuating between 180 US dollars and 200 US dollars. It rebounded slightly after hitting a minimum of 179 US dollars at 20 o'clock yesterday. It is currently fluctuating around 185 US dollars. The ETH/BTC transaction fluctuated slightly from yesterday's low of 0.0181 BTC. After hitting a high of 0.0188 BTC today, it was slightly oscillated.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 10,263,700 yuan, a decrease from yesterday (238,180,100 yuan). Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 3,675,300 yuan, and the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 63,744,000 yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The outflow was 20.845 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 21,591,000 yuan. There are differences in the market, mainly based on large orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has increased. Among them, the pledge of DAI's 24-hour total flow of 2,739 ETH was significantly higher than yesterday (907 ETH), and the trading platform IDEX's 24-hour total flow of 1,525 ETH was increased compared with yesterday (1,408 ETH); the game encryption hero's 24-hour activity The number of users was 2,608, which was higher than yesterday (2,494); the number of 24-hour transactions of the stable currency Paxos Standard was 1,068, which was higher than yesterday (926).

Third, the spot LTC market

At around 20 o'clock yesterday, LTC quickly hit a low of 70 US dollars, and then fluctuated slightly, and short-term linkage BTC. The LTC/BTC transaction oscillated up to 0.0073 BTC from around the previous day's low of 0.0070 BTC.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 5,542,800 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 3,875,470 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 4,469.96 yuan, the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow 4046.85 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 91.7 million yuan. The market is mostly reduced by large orders.

2. Fundamentals

At present, LTC's total network computing power is 321.62TH/s, which is slightly higher than yesterday (318.49TH/s). It is close to the low point of three months. After the block reward is reduced by half, the computing power has decreased. This is likely to be Some miners are out of service or equipment is out of phase. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (11.119 million, historically small), significantly reduced from the previous day (826.36 million), the long-term trend has not been destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 66,200, which was significantly lower than the previous day (8.78 million), which was close to the one-month average.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

EOS hit a low of 3.35 US dollars from 20 o'clock yesterday, the Air Force temporarily suppressed, and then quickly rebounded, but after the rise to 3.57 US dollars, the army was weak, and the long and short is near 3.5 US dollars. Yesterday EOS/BTC traded the pin to a low of 0.00033BTC, which is currently relatively weak.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 90,491,900 yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (381.127 million yuan). Among them, the over-single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 6,593,200 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 4,077,600 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 14.44 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 29.416 million yuan. The market is mostly reduced by large orders.

2. Fundamentals

Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of the entertainment game Texas Hold'em is 1,232, which is slightly higher than yesterday (1,231); the number of 24-hour active users of the entertainment game Trust Dice is 885, which is slightly lower than yesterday (890); the entertainment game WinPlay 24 The number of active users per hour was 669, which was less than yesterday (952).

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The market of mad cows may come in the next one to two years, and it can be added on a dip. The smart contract platform leader ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, the DPoS leader EOS BTC transaction pair is at a low level in the year, and the opportunity to reverse is available.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term BTCs are more likely to continue to adjust their reserves, and they can increase their positions on a dip.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term uncertainty increases, and wait-and-see is dominant.

Appendix – Index Interpretation

Babbitt Composite Index The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

Alternative Emotional Index The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in the market's mood, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

USDT Off- Site Depreciation Index ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

Net inflow of funds (out) This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days held by Bitcoin. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the comparison Small value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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