QKL123 market analysis | risk aversion continued to ferment, bitcoin attacked 12,000 US dollars (0806)

Abstract: Global political and economic uncertainty has increased, market risk aversion has continued to brew, short-term bitcoin volume has hit 12,000 US dollars, and the long-term trend is still much. In the short-term, BTC and ETH are neutral, LTC and EOS are more.

According to QKL123 statistics, on August 06, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 21,435.33 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +0.22%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 453.575 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed + 14.74%, 24-hour market activity continues to increase. The market value of BTC accounted for 67.41%, a slight increase from yesterday (67.17%), and the market risk aversion is still high.

At 12 o'clock, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), EOS has the largest increase in 24 hours (+1.15%), BTC has risen and fallen by +1.02% in 24 hours, ETH has risen and fallen by -0.32% in 24 hours, and LTC has risen and fallen in 24 hours. 0.50%. The USDT rose by +0.30% for 24 hours, with a 24-hour turnover rate of 2.62%, and a slight increase in 24-hour off-exchange capital inflows.

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The Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 16158.25 points, up 24 hours to +0.70%; alternative.me sentiment index was 66, slightly higher than yesterday (64), the market performance was greedy. Today's Bitcoin's Google search trend has increased significantly from yesterday, the highest in nearly seven days.

Analyst's point of view: China and the United States have no war escalation, the world's political and economic situation has become more tense, and market risk aversion has risen further. BTC has stood at $12,000 and is expected to stand firm for a short time. The long-term trend is still bullish.

First, the spot BTC market

Yesterday, the United States announced that it was a currency manipulator. The global stock index fell sharply and the market risk aversion increased further. The BTC attacked 12,000 US dollars at 14 o'clock today, and it is expected to stabilize the key point in a short time.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 137,575,200 yuan, which was lower than yesterday (328,801,100 yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 605.9.30 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 548.853 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 7.5983.90 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 12965.30 million. The market continues to open positions, mostly in the middle and big orders.

2. Fundamentals

Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 265 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 72.41 EH/s, which is higher than yesterday (71.71 EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 7.774 million, a sharp increase from the previous day (576.32 million), reaching a high point in a month. Today's currency-day destruction was 301.919 million (historically larger) than the yesterday (764.78 million), which brought a certain risk of selling pressure in a short period of time, but had little effect on the long-term trend.

Second, the spot ETH market

ETH linked BTC and regained $230. The ETH/BTC trading pair continued to drop to 0.0119 BTC, a new low in the past year, and the short-term downside volume was released, and the possibility of stabilization further increased.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 158,011,500 yuan, a decrease from yesterday (474,165,500 yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 37.037 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 172,606,900 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 84.294 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 10727.67 million. There are certain differences in the market, with large orders and small orders being built.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has increased. Among them, the 24-hour total flow of pledge by DAI (3,154 ETH) increased or decreased by +3.23% compared with yesterday, the 24-hour total flow of the trading platform IDEX (2,013 ETH) increased or decreased by +0.41% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour active user of the game encryption hero The number (2,223) increased or decreased by +2.16% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour transactions (1,884) of the stable currency Paxos Standard increased or decreased by -0.89% compared with yesterday.

Third, the spot LTC market

At 12 o'clock yesterday, LTC increased its heavy load by 100 US dollars, and then it quickly fell back, but the amount continued to shrink. LTC re-launched the BTC today and is expected to stand at $100 in a short time. The LTC/BTC trading pair also quickly rose from the low point of 0.008 BTC, and then quickly fell back. The volume is up, and it is now close to the previous low, and the follow-up is expected to stabilize.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 209.6643 million yuan, which was opposite to yesterday (-529.48 million yuan). Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 19,724,500 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 4,490,500 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 41.131 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 50.76 million yuan. The market has increased its positions, mainly based on large single-sales.

2. Fundamentals

At present, LTC's total network computing power is 452.90TH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (461.33 TH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 74,200, a slight decrease from the previous day (70,700), lower than the average of three months. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (124.839 million, historically small), significantly increased from the previous day (8.06 million), the risk of selling on the LTC chain on August 01 (the number of coins destroyed by 87.928 million) was released or reduced. Yesterday LTC completed a quarterly block halving, which is a long-term positive for the LTC trend.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

In a short period of time, EOS continued to fluctuate between 4.2 and 4.5 USD, and the short-term upside will not be strong. Recently, performance is still weaker than ETH and LTC, but there may be opportunities for compensatory growth. At present, the EOS/BTC trading pair has slightly decreased (0.000367 BTC), which is close to the lowest point of the year (0.000351 BTC). There is no heavy volume for a short time, and the possibility of bottoming still exists.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 5,179.6 million yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday (1300.81 million yuan). Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 2,803,500 yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 30,578,000 yuan, and the net is between medium and small (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan). The outflow was 235.95 million yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 10,316,580 yuan. The market has a lot of differences, and most of them are small.

2. Fundamentals

Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp increased slightly. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment games Texas Hold'em (1,253) increased or decreased by +0.08% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour total flow of trading platform DEXEOS (133,608 EOS) increased or decreased by +2.75% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the short-term partial adjustment stage. The mad cow market may come in the next one to two years, and it can be used to reduce the position or increase the position. The BTC transaction of the intelligent contract platform ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the lowest point in the year. Currently, the BTC is the main link, which can be properly configured on the dips.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term shocks adjust the situation, all kinds of encrypted assets can be bargained at the bargain-hunting or rallies.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term BTC has over-return callback demand and is expected to stand at $12,000. ETH is relatively neutral, and LTC and EOS are relatively high.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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