QKL123 market analysis | short-term change is imminent, uncertainty increases (0813)

Abstract: In a short period of time, the amplitude and quantity of BTC tend to converge, and ETH, LTC, and EOS are linked, and the market is more likely to change. The adjustment space for the short-term shock downwards is not large, and it is still long-term in the long run.

According to QKL123 statistics, on August 13, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 208.452 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -0.68%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 305.932 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed – 10.14%, 24-hour market activity continued to decline. The market value of BTC accounted for 68.48%, which was slightly higher than yesterday (68.26%), and the market risk aversion was still high.

At 12 o'clock, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), LTC fell the most in 24 hours (+4.82%), BTC rose by -0.28% in 24 hours, ETH rose by -1.56% in 24 hours, EOS rose in 24 hours – 1.73%. The USDT rose by -0.07% in 24 hours, and the net outflow of funds today was 11.325 million yuan, a decrease from yesterday (206.560 million yuan).

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The Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 15364.91 points, a 24-hour up-and-down of -1.27%; the alternative.me sentiment index was 45, a slight decrease from yesterday (48), and the market performance returned from neutral to fear. Today's Bitcoin's Google search trend has risen slightly from yesterday, approaching a seven-day low.

Analyst's point of view: All kinds of encryption assets are linked to BTC, the amplitude and quantity can tend to converge, and the possibility of short-term market changes increases. The downward adjustment of the BTC is in the form of triangular convergence. Recently, the BTC is more likely to converge toward the vicinity of $11,000.

First, the spot BTC market

From yesterday to recently, the BTC fluctuated slightly between $11,300 and $11,500. The short-term volume continued to shrink and the possibility of a change was greater. From the perspective of the daily line, the downward adjustment of the BTC is in the form of triangular convergence. Recently, the BTC is likely to converge toward the vicinity of 11,000 US dollars.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 809.834 million yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (477.867 million yuan). Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 154,663,400 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 40,604,400 yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 30,000 yuan. The inflow of 16643.30 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 88.679 million yuan. The market is mostly built with large orders.

2. Fundamentals

The next block reward halved countdown estimate: 261 days

At present, BTC's total network computing power is 74.34EH/s, which is basically the same as yesterday (74.91EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 644,700, a significant increase from the previous day (547,200), slightly higher than the low of a month. Yesterday, the number of currency days destroyed was 5,529,200 (historically smaller) than the previous day (691.79 million), and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

Yesterday, ETH has oscillated between $200 and $230, and the ETH/BTC trade has fallen from the high of 0.0190 BTC to around 0.0185 BTC. In a short period of time, the amount and amplitude continue to converge, and the possibility of changing the disk is further increased.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 20,717.1 thousand yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday (448,033,600 yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 38.473 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 19,479,100 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 5,312,800 yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 10,357,500 yuan. There are differences in the market, mostly in small orders and large orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly. Among them, the pledge of DAI's 24-hour total flow (2,529 ETH) increased or decreased by +19.91% compared with yesterday, the trading platform IDEX's 24-hour total flow (2,062 ETH) increased or decreased by -2.77% compared with yesterday; the game encryption hero's 24-hour active user The number (2,378) increased or decreased by +0.51% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour transactions (916) of the stable currency Paxos Standard increased or decreased by +0.44% compared with yesterday.

Third, the spot LTC market

Similar to the trend of ETH, LTC fluctuated at a low level in the range of $80 to $105, and the amount and amplitude gradually tended to shrink. The LTC/BTC trading pair continued to shrink from yesterday's high of 0.0080 BTC to 0.0075 BTC.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 208.906 million yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (101.616 million yuan). Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 55,234,700 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 2508.75 yuan, the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow 1789.24 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 10,867.60 million. The market is mostly built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

At present, the total network computing power of LTC is 388.56TH/s, which is significantly lower than yesterday (442.90TH/s), which is close to the low point of two months. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 88,400, which was basically the same as the previous day (88,500), slightly higher than the average of the past three months. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (289.09 million, historical normal value), compared with the previous day (957.89 million), the long-term trend has not been destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

EOS continued to fluctuate slightly between $4 and $4.5. The EOS/BTC traded down from yesterday's high of 0.00037 BTC to 0.00035 BTC, and the volume was able to shrink and the possibility of a change was increased.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 29.176 million yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 888,100 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 37,739,100 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 6.81 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 15.29 million yuan. There are differences in the market, mainly based on large orders.

2. Fundamentals

Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Texas Hold'em (1,229) increased or decreased by -0.49% compared with yesterday, and the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Trust Dice (1,049) increased or decreased by +0.10% compared with yesterday; 24 of trading platform DEXEOS Total hourly water (117,461 EOS) increased or decreased by -3.07% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is good, and it is currently in partial adjustment. The mad cow market may come in the next one to two years, and it can be bargain-hunting. The BTC trading of the intelligent contract platform ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is at a low point in the year, and can be configured on a dip basis to capture the opportunity of reversal.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term shocks adjust the situation, all kinds of encrypted assets linkage, can be bargained on a dip.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

In a short period of time, all kinds of encryption assets have a small downside space, which can be used for bargain-hunting.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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