QKL123 market analysis | When the dark moment is coming, when is the Jedi counterattack? (0925)

Abstract: Last night, the market plunged. After Bitcoin fell below the 200-day moving average, the volume of the stocks rebounded rapidly. The decline in the altcoin currency was large, and the amount of money was released in a short period of time. From the historical performance point of view, Bitcoin has already reached the Jedi in the adjustment stage. If it can be recovered in time, a new round of market can be expected.

According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on September 25, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,626.824 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -13.22%, the total turnover was 695.747 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed +65.16%. The market activity has increased significantly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 11354.94 points, up 24 hours to -14.72%; the Alternative sentiment index was 15, which was significantly lower than yesterday (39), and the market sentiment changed from fear to extreme fear.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market capitalization (excluding USDT), EOS had the largest decline in 24-hour (-21.64%) and XRP had the smallest 24-hour decline (-11.08%). BTC rose by -11.62% in 24 hours, and the market value (67.66%) rebounded from yesterday. The market risk aversion continued to increase. USDT's 24-hour rise and fall was +1.26%. Today's net inflow of funds was 425,392,200 yuan, which was significantly higher than yesterday. ChaiNext USDT's over-the-counter discount index was reported at 100.80, which was up and down to +1.01% in 24 hours.

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In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 100) increased significantly from yesterday (peak 43), a new monthly high. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), the Netherlands (52), South Africa (40), Brazil (47), Switzerland (43), Austria (43) and Germany (41). In the past week, global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 100) was flat compared to yesterday (peak 67), close to the intraday high.

Analyst's point of view:

Market price is the result of an incomplete game. The news that most people have is very limited. In an industry without supervision, there is more possibility of being manipulated by the dealer, but history and trend can't be changed by anyone. Judging from the historical performance of bitcoin prices, the current probability is in the adjustment stage of a new round of bull market. Last night, it fell below 9,000 US dollars. Today, it came to the 200-day moving average (yellow line) of the "Bear and Bear Demarcation Line". At present, Bitcoin has already reached the local adjustment of the Jedi.

According to the data from Tradingview, there have been similar situations in history. For example, in the adjustment phase of the previous round of bull market (June 2016 to December 2016), at the end of July 2016, it was short-term pinned down to Below the 200-day moving average, but quickly returned to important support. So, will history repeat itself?

Greed and fear are the two weaknesses of human nature. When the market continues to fall, the hope cost of preparing for bargain-hunting is lower, and the fear of starting will fall, and no one at the bottom of the market can determine. Risks are everywhere, but the current point is really worth the effort for risk enthusiasts. Because, after passing through this dark moment, it is likely to be dawn.

First, the spot BTC market

In the early morning, BTC's heavy volume plummeted and has now fallen out of the daily triangle convergence range. Today, the lowest touch reached $7,700. The amount released is relatively sufficient, indicating that there is more inflow of funds, and the Air Force is temporarily suppressed. It rebounded to a maximum of $8,800 in a short period of time and then fell back. It is now approaching the 200-day moving average. If it cannot be recovered in time, the market outlook is not optimistic.

Fund face

As of 14:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 320,396,400 yuan, a decrease from yesterday. Among them, the over-single (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 174,742,400 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 8,839,940 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 152,770.70 yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 61,753.90 yuan. The market is mostly net outflows.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average computing power of the BTC network was 79.96EH/s, which was lower than the previous day (84.46EH/s), but still close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 823,600. The previous day (690,100) increased, approaching a one-month high; the number of currency days destroyed was 33,129,800 (historical median), a significant increase from the previous day (596.48 million), but the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

In the early hours of the morning, ETH quickly went down, releasing a short amount of time, stabilizing and rebounding at $150, and it has fallen back after hitting a maximum of $175. Yesterday, ETH's BTC relative price hit a low of 0.0188 BTC and rebounded. It is now at 0.0200BTC, and the short-term heavy volume is obvious.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 105,741,200 yuan, a significant increase from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 72.422 million yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 57.940 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The outflow of 499.17 million yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 577.47 million yuan. The market has mostly net outflows of small orders and medium orders.

2. Fundamentals

Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has increased, adding 8 DApps. Among them, the financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.9k, 24 hours change +6.13%; game application My Crypto Heroes 24-hour active users 1.5k, 24 hours change +4.43%; trading application IDEX 24-hour active users Number 429, 24 hours change + 30.00%.

Third, the spot LTC market

In the early hours of the morning, LTC's heavy volume hit a low of $52.8, and the amount of money was released for a short time. At the same time, the LTC/BTC transaction was down against the heavy volume, with a minimum of 0.00640 BTC, with significant volume, and the Air Force was temporarily suppressed.

Fund face

As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 120,390,700 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 9.758 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow 2457.56 yuan, the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow The net inflow of 485.17 million yuan and small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 57.56 million yuan. The market has mostly net inflows of small orders and medium orders.

2. Fundamentals

Yesterday, the average net computing power of LTC was 313.81TH/s, which was slightly higher than yesterday (313.12TH/s), higher than the one-month average. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. This may be related to the withdrawal of some miners or the elimination of equipment, which will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 115,900, which was higher than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed (408.301 million, historically small), significantly increased from the previous day (123.635 million), but the long-term trend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

In the early morning, EOS also released a small amount of money, rebounded after hitting a minimum of 2.4 US dollars. The EOS/BTC transaction rebounded after returning to the lowest point of the year. It is currently oscillating around 0.00033 BTC, and the short-term heavy volume is obvious.

Fund face

As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 469,292,800 yuan, a decrease from yesterday. Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 15.5292 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 35.979 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 1,174,500,700 yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 332,921,900 yuan. The market is dominated by net outflows of small orders.

2. Fundamentals

According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp was slightly reduced, and the number of new Dapps was 1. Among them, the game's PROSPECTORS 24-hour user number 2.5k, compared with yesterday's change -6.18%; quiz application Dice's 24-hour active users 1.8k, compared with yesterday's change -57.02%; data application Lumeos's 24-hour active users 1.5k, Compared with yesterday's change -0.87%; trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users 1.4k, compared with yesterday's change +4.91%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, the DPoS leader EOS BTC is approaching the low point of the year and can be configured.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Recently, the market is expected to step out of the upward trend and increase the position.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

High-selling and low-sucking are the mainstays, and small positions can be bargain-hunting.

VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation

1. Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

2.Alternative sentiment index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

3.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index

The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

4. Google search trends

This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.

5. Net inflow of funds (out)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

6. Coin-day destruction

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

7. Number of active addresses on the chain

The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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