QKL123 Quote Analysis | The end of Bitcoin, Bakkt's ambition (1030)
Abstract: Today's market fell slightly, but the performance of the altcoin is relatively strong, and the risk aversion is further eased. Recently, Bakkt's futures trading volume has surged, and plans to launch applications that users can trade and pay for crypto assets are evident in their financial ambitions.
According to QKL123 statistics, at 13:00 on October 30, 2019, the total market value of the global market was 179.149 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -0.89%, the total turnover was 692.254 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by -1.44%. Market activity has declined slightly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 12,804.78 points, a 24-hour rise to -1.18%, reflecting a slight decline in the broader market; the Bitcoin Strength Index was reported at 96.83 points, and the 24-hour price was down -2.25%. The relative performance of Bitcoin in the entire market became weak. The market risk aversion sentiment was further eased; the Alternative sentiment index was 53, which was slightly lower than yesterday (54), and the market sentiment was still neutral.
Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BTC had the largest decline in 24 hours (-2.77%), and BCH had the largest increase in 24 hours (+2.57%). USDT has risen and fallen to +0.00% in 24 hours. The current net inflow of funds today is 2,321,173,300 yuan, which is lower than yesterday. USDC has risen and fallen to +0.17% in 24 hours. The current net outflow of funds today is 1,617,700 yuan, which is opposite to yesterday. Turn; ChaiNext USDT OTC discount premium index reported 100.29, 24 hours up and down to -0.17%.
In the past day, Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 47) has fallen from the previous value (peak 53), which is lower than the average of the past seven days. The top seven countries in the heat are Nigeria (100), Germany (48), South Africa (47), Switzerland (46), Austria (45), Ghana (41) and Brazil (39). In the past day, the global Ethereum's Google search relative value (peak 78) dropped slightly from the previous value (peak 81), higher than the one-month average. In the recent seven-day Bitcoin related query, Bakkt's search volume rose to the top.
Analyst's point of view:
Recently, the trading volume of Bitcoin futures contracts of Bakkt under the Intercontinental Exchange Group began to surge, and reached a new high on October 25, and the transaction amount exceeded 10 million US dollars. The high volatility of bitcoin prices has been criticized by users. Bakkt is using aggressive delivery futures and options on the line to try to tame the bitcoin beast. It is also actively expanding the payment of bitcoin with Starbucks. business. According to reports, Bakkt will launch a payment system for merchants and consumers in the first half of next year. In an application that is planned to be released, ordinary users can conduct cryptocurrency transactions and payments.
At present, the global digital currency camp can be divided into three categories: the first is a payment system based on global community consensus represented by bitcoin; the second is a currency based on the central bank's digital currency DC/EP. The third category is a legal system based on Libra's stable currency. In the future, how will the three types of camps evolve? Let's make a bold guess here.
As the saying goes, "The mountains are strong and the water is invisible." Libra's ambitions, similar to the “rural encircling the city”, will be cut from countries with imperfect financial facilities, and then transition to mature countries, and finally central banks may be forced to integrate into Libra's stable currency system. Bakkt's ambitions are like the “invisible and tangible” water shape. With the continuous penetration of Bitcoin in every corner of the world, Bakkt's related business will continue to spread and eventually occupy a pivotal position in the financial sector. The ambition of the People’s Bank of China’s digital currency, DC/EP, has both the “end of the dollar’s hegemony” and the “close-to-encrypted assets”, and it’s invincible with the strengthening of the country’s comprehensive strength, while the “banknote version” Digital currency is used as a channel for encrypted assets and can penetrate the world like water.
First, the spot BTC market
Today, Bitcoin continues to hover around $9,300. The amount and amplitude tend to shrink, and short-term shocks are the mainstay. At present, BTC is approaching the 200-day moving average and is expected to continue to rise in the short term.
As of 15:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 2,116,628,800 yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 50,529,800 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 40,243.30 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 98,601.90 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 67,764,800 yuan. The market has a large net outflow of medium-sized funds.
Yesterday, the average calculation power of BTC's entire network was 94.16 EH/s, which was higher than the previous day, close to the historical high point. The long-term upward trend has not changed; the number of active addresses on the chain is 728,800, a slight decrease from the previous day, nearly one month. The high point since the chain; the trading volume on the chain was 1.510 million, which was lower than the previous day and higher than the one-month average; the number of coins destroyed in the day was 10.409 million (historical median), and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.
Second, the spot ETH market
The ETH/BTC trading pair is slightly stronger, and the volume and amplitude are also shrinking. After a short-term power adjustment, it is expected to go up to $200.
As of 15:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 8.37 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 27.38 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 4717.10 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The outflow of 27.1 million yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 13361.60 million. There are certain differences in the market, mainly based on the net outflow of small orders.
Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has decreased. Game application My Crypto Heroes's 24-hour active users 3.2k, 24 hours change +7.09%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.5k, 24-hour change -26.76%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24-hour active users The number is 964, 24 hours change -0.10%.
Third, the spot LTC market
LTC is slightly stronger today than Bitcoin. After a short period of storage, it is expected to continue to surge $62.
As of 15:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 6,836,700 yuan. Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 65.73 million yuan, the large outflow (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 2014.58 yuan, the net inflow of medium (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 2747.07 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 14142.50 million. There are differences in the market, with a large outflow of small orders.
Yesterday, the average computing power of LTC's entire network was 187.65 TH/s, which continued to decline from the previous day, close to the low point of eight months. After the halving of the block reward on August 05, the computing power has declined. There is no sign of recovery. Although it has not fallen below the low of the beginning of the year, the risk of stamping is greater. The number of active addresses on the LTC chain (9.5 million) increased significantly from the previous day, close to a one-month high; the number of coins destroyed (477.742 million, historical median), there is a certain risk of selling pressure in a short time.
Fourth, the spot EOS market
EOS fluctuated slightly around 3.4 US dollars, and the amount of energy could shrink. Short-term linkage was mainly based on Bitcoin.
As of 15:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 116,438,500 yuan. Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 16.327 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 9.95 million yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 4,995.61 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 73.715 million yuan. The market is mostly net outflows of small orders.
According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has declined. The EOS Dynasty's 24-hour user number is 3.1k, which is -1.91% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users who use Dice is 3.1k, which is -7.12% change from yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users who apply Newdex is 1.5k. Yesterday changed -0.26%.
V. Analyst strategy
1. Long line (1-3 years)
The long-term trend of BTC is improving. At present, the high probability is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market is likely to arrive in the next one to two years. The relative price of the BTC of the smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be properly configured.
2. Midline (1-3 months)
At present, Bitcoin is approaching the 200-day moving average, and those with no significant positions are bargain-hunting.
3. Short-term (1-3 days)
Short-term quantity and amplitude tend to shrink, and wait and see.
VI. Appendix – Index Interpretation
1. Babbitt Composite Index
The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.
2. Bitcoin strength index
The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the conversion of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, which in turn reflects the competitive strength of Bitcoin in the market and is used to measure the extent to which Bitcoin changes the relative price of a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger the bitcoin in the Token market.
3.Alternative sentiment index
The Fear & Greed Index reflects the emotional changes in the market, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).
4.USDT Off-exchange Discount Index
The ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.
5. Google search trend
This refers to Google web search data results, the relative value of the search in the specified time and region: the hottest record of 100, the heat accounted for the highest half of 50, there is not enough data of 0. Note: The higher the score in a country, the higher the percentage of search terms in all local search terms, and does not mean the absolute number of searches.
6. Net inflow of funds (out)
This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds from the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.
7. Currency Day Destruction
Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days of Bitcoin holdings. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.
8. Number of active addresses on the chain
The number of active addresses on the chain refers to the number of addresses in the chain address of the block chain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it.
Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.