QKL123 Quotes | BTC "Single high-rise", beware of high risk (0709)

Abstract: Today, BTC is the only high-rise building, and the market has suffered from a number of ups and downs. From the historical comprehensive performance of BTC, its long-term upward trend has not changed; in the short term, the risk of BTC and ETH is increasing, and the fluctuation of time and space exchange remains unchanged.

According to QKL123 statistics, on July 09, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 424.287 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased to +7.56%, and the total turnover of 24 hours was 522.274 billion yuan. At +22.32%, market activity increased significantly compared with yesterday. The market value of BTC accounted for 63.66%, which was higher than yesterday (61.94%). The market value of BTC accounted for 9.53%, which was lower than yesterday (9.88%), and the market risk aversion increased.

At 10 o'clock, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BTC has the largest increase in 24 hours (+9.83%), followed by BCH (+3.31%), and the net inflow of funds today is +22.74 billion yuan, respectively. 0.225 billion yuan; ETH 24-hour rise and fall is +2.93%, its net capital inflow today is +1.99 billion yuan; LTC 24-hour rise and fall is +2.65%, today's net capital inflow is -0.139 billion yuan; EOS 24 hours The price increase was +0.87%, and the net inflow of funds today was -122.2 million yuan. USDT's 24-hour rise and fall is -0.65%, today's net capital inflow is -0.598 billion, 24-hour turnover rate is 4.44%, market capitalization (16.606 billion yuan) is higher than yesterday (25.642 billion yuan), off-site Actual capital inflows have weakened compared to yesterday.

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Today, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 18, 971.47 points, 24 hours up and down to +7.17%, mainly due to BTC pull; alternative.me sentiment index was 74, compared with yesterday (67), the market is still Greed, close to extreme greed. Yesterday, Bitcoin's Baidu search index was 48,635 points, up from the previous day (38,598), but lower than the average of the past month. At present, Bitcoin's Google search trend has rebounded from yesterday, slightly higher than the average of previous days.

Analyst's point of view: The overall heat of the market has rebounded slightly, the market greed has increased significantly, the short-term downside space has increased, and the short-term uncertainty has increased, so beware of downside risks.

First, the spot BTC market

24H highest: ¥87956.58 24H minimum: ¥87004.63

At 16 o'clock in the afternoon, BTC began to increase its heavy load. After standing at 11,800 and 12,000 US dollars respectively, it again hit the upper level today, reaching a maximum of 12,750 US dollars, but the amount released is not enough to support the nearby resistance. At present, the multi-military forces have been temporarily suppressed, and the subsequent need to be fully tested by the Air Force can confirm whether it is stable or not, otherwise there will be a large downside risk in a short time.

Fund face

Yesterday, the net inflow of BTC funds was +2.825 billion yuan, which was reversed from the previous day's net inflow (-10.71 billion yuan). Today, the net inflow of funds has reached +2,274 million yuan. Among them, the large inflow (not less than 300,000 yuan) net inflow +66.318 million yuan, the medium inflow (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net inflow +85.33 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow +75,761 Ten thousand yuan. This shows that the market's net purchases continue to increase, but mostly in the middle and small orders.

The number of BTC's currency destruction yesterday was 9,903,600, which was significantly higher than the previous day (3,854,400). It was close to the average of three months. The whales did not have any off-market selling action in the near future, and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed. The daily currency destruction numbers here are divided into four categories: greater than or equal to 100 million for maximum values ​​(high probability and large amount of selling), historical days for about 0.3%; 50 to 100 million for larger Value (large probability of large-scale selling), the number of days is about 0.8%; the value of 10 to 50 million is the median (normal in the case of non-mass concentration), the historical days are about 17%; less than or equal to 10 million For smaller values ​​(normal), historical days account for approximately 81.9%.

2. Fundamentals

Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 297 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 68.06EH/s, which is higher than yesterday (65.94EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the BTC chain increased to 81.13 million, which was significantly lower than the previous day (586,400), lower than the same period last month. Yesterday, BTC's valuation relative index MVRV increased with the price increase, from 2.18 on the previous day to 2.38 today, the imbalance between market supply and demand, the short-term downside risk increased.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): The long-term line can continue to hold or lighten up and wait. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market may come in the next one to two years. It can be effective at around 10,000 USD or around 12,000 USD. After the breakthrough, add a position.

Midline (January-March): Short-term shock adjustment, the downside risk has increased, but the downside space is still limited. It is recommended to wait and see, and wait for the volume to confirm the direction.

Short-term (1-3 days): Seeing the ability to move in the direction of the opportunity, the current risk is greater. Resistance is $13,000, support is $11,000, target is $12,000, stop loss is $10,000, and take profit is $13,000.

Second, the spot ETH market

24H highest: ¥2181.47 24H minimum: ¥2101.28

At 00 am today, ETH increased its heavy load. After breaking through the resistance level of $310, it was blocked by the Air Force when it continued to attack the resistance level of $320. The 24-hour trading volume is mainly concentrated between 290-306 US dollars. The strength and quantity of various parties can be reduced, and the market uncertainty will increase in a short time.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was +298 million yuan, a significant increase from yesterday's net inflow (+829 million yuan). Among them, the net inflow of large single (not less than 300,000 yuan) was +32.96 million yuan, which was significantly lower than yesterday (+17.81 million yuan). The net inflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) was 216.26 million yuan. Yesterday (+38,476) was significantly reduced. The net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was -19.47 million yuan. Compared with yesterday (+26,624), the main intention to open positions was reduced.

The ETH/BTC transaction was curbed by the Air Force after the previous day's heavy volume rise. As the BTC soared the Air Force's heavy-duty attack, it has now fallen back to a low point and has a short-term rebound demand. In the short-term, BTC has a certain amount of downside, and ETH needs to be relatively strong after BTC is fully adjusted.

2. Fundamentals

Currently, the top ten ETH DApp activity levels have rebounded from yesterday. Among them, the number of active users of the trading platform IDEX (1,376) rebounded slightly from yesterday (1,021), and the total flow of pledges by DAI (6,988 ETH) increased significantly compared with yesterday (1,192 ETH). Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the ETH chain was 523,100, which was significantly higher than yesterday (370,300), higher than the same period last month.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): The long-term line can continue to hold or lighten up, and the ETH 2.0 project of the smart contract platform is in the process of advancement. It is expected to step out of the independent market in the future, and it can open the position or break the effective resistance after the bargain of 290 USD. Open a position.

Midline (January-March): Short-term continuous shock adjustment, lighten up and wait and see, move to see if the effective heavy volume is up or the volume is falling.

Short-term (1-3 days): Choose the opportunity to move to see if the effective heavy volume is up or the volume is falling. Resistance is $320, support is $310, target is $310, stop loss is $300, and take profit is $320.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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