The market reminder is fulfilled again. Where is the bitcoin going to fall?

From a macro perspective, last night's Fed Chairman Powell expressed the dovish voice when he made a half-year economic policy statement in Congress. The market is expected to resume interest rate cuts, after which the dollar fell and non-US currency pairs rebounded. However, Bitcoin did not show a corresponding increase, but it fell, making people more unexpected. However, interest rate cuts are expected to be in the forefront, and the favorable environment for Bitcoin is still there. Bitcoin's medium-term trend is still optimistic.

Yesterday, the momentum of the heavy volume fell back, so that the rapid upswing of 14,000 may not be achieved. Bitcoin is expected to enter a volatility up and down above $10,000. From the trend of bitcoin back below 10,000 US dollars on July 2 and then quickly pull back, even if there is a short-term trend, the future will be pulled back to around 12,000 US dollars.

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For the time and space of short-term exploration, we can use the position report of Bitcoin futures to make a reasoning. Previous investors had questioned the practicality of Bitcoin COT. We just think that all the data is a tool for judging the market. Whether it is effective or not is determined by a judgment. The key is whether the investment logic can go through the historical backtesting and the actual market test. Before we can prove that Bitcoin COT is invalid for the verification market, we will use its data as one of the indicators for the market.

There was a significant change in the position of Dealer (market maker) in the Bitcoin futures position report last week. For the first time since 2019, there was a net long position. Earlier we did an explanation about the Dealer account in the Bitcoin COT Weekly. When he holds a net long position, the market is more likely to be short-selling; on the contrary, when the position is short, the market is more bullish.

Below we have compiled the CME Bitcoin futures position report to disclose the changes of all Dealer accounts and the corresponding price changes and performances for investors' reference.

The area of ​​the yellow box above corresponds to the price performance of the two net short positions in the Dealer account in the table, and the purple box represents the price performance of the Dealer account in the net long position. The data in the table is calculated based on the high (or low) point at which the price at the time the position data is seen corresponds to the expected direction. Correspondingly, the position of the Dealer account in the past year will achieve positive returns after a clear direction.

So, where will this fall? Since April, Bitcoin has experienced three major retracements, with retracement rates of 11.3%, 13%, and 25%, respectively. Combined with the price volatility of the past changes in Dealer's position, we believe that a 10%-20% decline will be a reasonable estimate. Starting from yesterday's opening price, the price retracement ranged from $10,000 to $11,200.

From a technical analysis point of view, our estimated price range is just around 23.6%-38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement line. The $11,200 is also the platform finishing position before the rebound of July 3-8. The low point of the pre-evaluation is just near the lowest point of the July 2 fall, and if the price falls to this area, it will definitely have strong support.

The decline in Bitcoin affected the entire cryptocurrency market, with all major market capitalizations falling and falling more than Bitcoin. Even if the altcoins fall sharply, they still do not have good investment opportunities. The market has completely fallen back to Bitcoin between the ups and downs, unless the bitcoin ended this bull market, the opportunity for the performance of the altcoin is far from coming.

Although the mainstream altcoin is weak, the platform currency has special functionality. Therefore, not only in the current price performance but also in the future, the rising potential is much stronger than other altcoins.

Last night, the altcoin currency generally broke the platform or the volume dropped, but the BNB was relatively strong, and the price fell to the bottom of the platform. However, the volume did not break the trend of shrinkage. For the future, it depends on whether BTC will There has been a big drop, and on the other hand, it depends on whether BNB will have a heavy loss in the platform. The current market sentiment is empty, it is not appropriate to take the flying knife, the opportunity still has to wait for the price to return to the short-term moving average. Overall, the future trend of BNB is still higher than other altcoins. (CoinNess)

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