When the 6-year off-the-job farce ended, the impact of the biggest risk event at the end of the year on Bitcoin

In the past July, the digital money market experienced the first Fed rate cut in “in life”, and the increased trade friction between large economies made the safe-haven value of Bitcoin recognized by more people in the market. As the digital currency market represented by Bitcoin is increasingly linked to macro news, the external economic environment is becoming more and more important for digital money market investors. In the moment, there is another major risk event whose potential impact is no less than the Fed’s first rate cut in the decade, and it is gradually approaching.

Mei Haoran stepped down as the new prime minister and insisted on "no agreement to leave the EU"

In June this year, former British Prime Minister Teresa Mayin "resigned from Europe" failed to resign as a leader of the Conservative Party. On July 23, former British Foreign Secretary and former mayor of London, Boris Johnson, was elected as the leader of the ruling Conservative Party and will replace Teresa May as the British Prime Minister upon approval by the Queen.

Johnson, 55, has repeatedly stressed that Britain must complete the "Brexit" before the new deadline of October 31, even if the price of this is "no agreement to leave the EU", he said that he will be with the EU for a new "Brexit" Agreement negotiation. However, as the EU insists that it will not negotiate with the UK on the new agreement, it will still be difficult for Britain and Europe to negotiate a "Brexit" agreement again before October 31. After Johnson became prime minister, public opinion generally believes that the UK "no The possibility of the agreement to leave the EU is further rising.

Once the "no agreement to leave the EU" has come true, the impact on the British economy and even the global economic environment must not be underestimated. "No agreement to leave the EU" will inevitably make the normal economic activities of the UK and the EU difficult to carry out. London's ability to become a world-famous financial center, in addition to the support of the British local economy, support from EU member states is also very important. Once the EU and the UK break up completely, London's financial industry may be devastated.

In addition, the UK's normal participation in global economic activities will also be severely affected. After Britain joined the European Community in 1973, the UK's foreign trade agreements were signed in Europe. If the UK and the EU formally break up, then the free trade agreements and investment agreements signed by other countries with the EU are not applicable to the UK and must undergo a difficult transition period.

The impact of this series of potential risks on the direct related assets such as the pound, the euro and crude oil need not be said. As the final time limit approaches, the response of a series of traditional safe-haven assets, including gold and the yen, will inevitably Gradually reacted. As mentioned at the beginning of the text, as the safe-haven value of Bitcoin has been more widely recognized in recent times, this event may become another round of opportunity for Bitcoin to break out.

British local bitcoin search heat and volume soared

Since Boris Johnson took office earlier this month, the frequency of the British search for the keyword "bitcoin" in Google has increased dramatically, and this is undoubtedly the most common consideration for local investors to consider using digital currency to hedge. Direct portrayal.

Source: Google Trends

In addition, from the regional heat performance of Google search, Northern Ireland and England, which are directly affected by the unofficial Brexit, are hotter than the Scottish and Welsh, which confirms the recent British people’s bitcoin The increase in attention is directly related to the event of Brexit.

Source: Google Trends

According to data released by Paxful, a digital currency over-the-counter trading platform, the bitcoin over-the-counter volume in the UK market has been steadily rising over the past two years. In the recent period, the exchange is based on the sterling's bitcoin over-the-counter trading level. It has stabilized above a relatively high level in a year.

Source: Coin Dance

In addition, the data released by LocalBitcoins, the larger OTC platform, shows that in the first week of Johnson's victory in the UK, the sterling-based bitcoin over-the-counter volume has hit a new high in nearly a year, and in mid-July. Created the second highest point of the year in the weekly volume.

Source: Coin Dance

It can be seen that after seeing the possible risk of non-agreement of Brexit, the British people not only paid more attention to Bitcoin on the search engine, but actually increased the asset allocation level in Bitcoin. In the recent period of time, the amount of off-exchange transactions in the British market has been significantly improved.

As the most influential digital currency exchange in the UK market, HitBTC has seen a very significant step-up in the recent trading volume. Non-small data shows that the total volume of the exchange in the late June, that is, Johnson officially won the British prime minister, hit a record high, and the high volume of this round of volume has been maintained for a month. The time span is significantly longer than the record high of Bitcoin at the end of 2017 and the two-round bull market that accelerated the rise in the first half of this year.

Source: Non-small

There are increasing signs that more and more British people are beginning to understand how to use digital currency to circumvent future uncertainty risks.

How will the "slapstick" that has been dragged on for six years will end in the end?

From the time when the British Prime Minister David Cameron, who was in office at the time, first mentioned the idea of ​​a referendum on the Brexit, it has been six years since he was, and with the resignation of Mei Long because of the "de-exemption", Johnson is almost entirely because The main "hard off" and the victory of the prime minister, it seems that the British authorities and the people have lost patience with this long-term war, and this also means that the bottom line of this time on October 31 this year is really expected to be this farce. "Draw a full stop."

What is now in front of the British government is nothing more than three roads. First, in the last two months, the negotiations are completed and there is an agreement to leave the EU; second, there is no agreement to leave the EU; third, the general election in advance, the time of Brexit The point is further delayed. And what kind of impact these three situations will have on the market, we can simply sort out.

First, the negotiations are successful and there is an agreement to leave the EU

The first time after the official appointment of the British Prime Minister, Johnson set a plan to visit almost all of Europe, and this is obviously trying to further negotiate with the EU leaders on Teresa May's agreement. Although the market generally believes that the EU will not make more concessions, because the EU leaders hope that EU member states will see that the United Kingdom will pay a high price in the process of leaving the alliance. But if Johnson can throw some relatively mild measures, it may make the EU leaders' attitudes loose.

However, if Johnson proposes that the British will remain in the European Customs Union after the Brexit and other softening measures, they will also face the pressure of being considered a "traitor" by the Brexit. After all, the Brexit has been struggling to push Johnson to replace Teresa. Sammy is precisely because he believes that he is the only Conservative leader who can achieve "hard Brexit."

It can be seen that the probability that this seemingly perfect ending can be finally realized is actually very low, but if it is true, the “risk factor” that needs to be undertaken for the global financial market will undoubtedly be greatly reduced. For Europe and the global stock market will have a major positive, and the risk factor risk dissipation will form a direct negative for safe-haven assets such as gold and Bitcoin. Once the UK and the EU reach a consensus before the deadline , then gold and bitcoin are expected A sharp correction will be ushered in a short period of time , but this kind of negative is not expected to be too long in terms of time dimension . The relatively smooth end of this problem will minimize the impact of this "slapstick".

Second, no agreement to leave the EU

This situation is the most likely outcome of the market. After all, Johnson’s appointment seems to be doing this. In the European Parliament elections held in May this year, the "Brasis Party" led by Nigel Farage won a great victory, and this undoubtedly made the ruling coalition led by the Conservative Party feel the crisis. The urgency of the people to leave the EU makes "hard Brexit" the best choice to defend the Conservative Party's support rate, and may even be the "only choice."

However, the plan of "no agreement to leave the EU" will not be smooth sailing. Analysts pointed out that, like his predecessor, no matter what Johnson did on the issue of Brexit, he would face fierce opposition within his party. If you seek "hard Brexit", there will be many Conservatives who voted against it; if you try to bypass the parliament and force a non-agreement to leave the EU, it is likely to trigger a constitutional crisis.

And if “no agreement” is finally coming true, then the six-year sawing of the UK and the EU will become “lost meaning”, which means that although the farce is temporarily closed, the market will still face a complete Unknown prospects, in this case, the market will have a large probability of risk aversion, and this will be a direct and positive boost to gold and bitcoin.

Considering that a series of problems faced after the non-Agreement of Brexit will gradually emerge for a long period of time, this result will continue to support the good support of gold and Bitcoin , which may also lead to a new round of Bitcoin. The calf city .

Third, advance elections

Since the British Parliament believes that Johnson's "no agreement to leave the European Union" is too dangerous, the conservative party's by-election at the beginning of this month, the Conservative Party camp lost another parliamentary seat, and the current effective majority has only one seat left. If this happens again, the parliament will be able to let Johnson step down through a "no confidence vote." This situation is likely to happen after the resumption of parliament on September 3. If Johnson loses in the vote of no confidence, he will have 14 days to prove that he can get the support of the majority of members of Congress, otherwise he must start the election. ", and have the right to set the date of the election.

This also means that a new round of elections that would have to wait until 2022 is likely to happen again in the next two months. Although the election must last at least 25 working days, plus the 1-2 days that Queen Elizabeth needs to officially dissolve the parliament, the new government does have the possibility to be established before the Brexit on October 31. And if the parliament takes Johnson down in this way, the Brexit process is likely to be postponed again. Of course, there is also the possibility that Johnson will take the initiative to make a general election in advance to ensure the smooth progress of his "no agreement".

If Johnson is forced to "give the sage" before the final time limit for Brexit , this means that the British Brexit farce will enter an unfinished state, and the market's "discontent" sentiment will turn into a short-term positive for gold and bitcoin , but this The kind of good continuity is not worth looking forward to . The new government's policy changes cannot be guessed at present. This situation will make this big stone that has been suspended for more than six years continue to hang down, and can only wait for the next "last time limit" to reorganize. New policy changes.

However, if Johnson can take the initiative to advance the election and take a firm foothold , then the impact of the “no agreement” in the second case mentioned above will be digested before the final time , and the specific performance is consistent with the above conclusion.

This article is originally created by Shallot APP, please indicate the source.

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