Zhu Jiaming: Rethinking about industrial blockchain: Although the blockchain industry has made progress, it is expected to be much slower
Text: Zhu Jiaming
Source: Zinc Link
Editor's Note: The original title was "Zhu Jiaming: Rethinking about Industrial Blockchain"
In the process of industrial blockchain from 1 to 100, blockchain alone cannot solve the problem. It needs to be combined with other technologies, such as artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things. Therefore, Zinc Link believes that in the 2.0 era of the industrial blockchain, it is an era of technological integration and upgrading.
Industrial blockchain is in the 1.0 era, and there are still many opportunities waiting to be tapped. As a medium for deeply cultivating industrial blockchains, Zinc Links also sees restrictions and bottlenecks while seeing opportunities, making the blockchain not as it is expected to—reducing trust friction and improving social benefits, often in most In this scenario, the endorsement of the trust of individuals, institutions, etc. is still required.
To borrow the words of Joseph Pulitzer, a 19th-century American newspaper giant, the media is a watcher standing on the bow of the country's giant ship. He wants to review and forecast winds and shoals and reefs to ensure navigation safety.
The zinc link heralded the arrival of the industrial blockchain and also the bottleneck of the industrial blockchain. Today, we are seeing a breakthrough in the bottleneck-technology integration.
This article is the thinking of economist Zhu Jiaming:
We generally think that the concept of the "blockchain industry" is inspired by the concept of the "internet industry". It is hoped that in the blockchain field, the history of the in-depth integration of the Internet and industry will be repeated, and eventually a blockchain technology Industrial form. This original intention was successful.
However, in real economic activities, although the blockchain industry has made progress, it is expected to be much slower, especially it is difficult to repeat and transplant the historical experience of industrial interconnection, and it is impossible to see the prospect of breakthrough in the short term. So, now we need to seriously consider this phenomenon.
Difficulties in the industrial blockchain : the industrial interconnection model cannot be copied
Comparing from the dimensions of technology, industrialization sequence, evolution mechanism, application mode, and expansion paradigm, there are differences between blockchain technology and Internet technology.
First, blockchain technology is different from Internet technology. Internet technology is a combination of computer technology, information technology, and communication technology. In other words, Internet technology can be classified into hardware, software, and application. Internet technology has strong and obvious physical characteristics. Its hardware includes data storage, processing, and transmission hosts and network communication equipment. Among them, the significance of network cables as the basic building blocks of a network is particularly obvious, because without a network cable, there is no Internet. Mobile Internet needs to be realized through smart phones.
Second, the order of industrialization of blockchain and Internet is different. The history of the development of the Internet is the history of the formation of the Internet industry. Because of the development of basic IT technology, the production of IT technology, the manufacture of components, components and components, and the integration and systemization of IT products, many Internet companies Hardware business. Silicon silicon should be used.
It is against this background that Moore's Law was proposed. For example, the process of 5G replacing 4G by IoT is the process of producing new technologies, new markets and new enterprises. However, because blockchain technology is not only independent of, but also needs to be attached to, Internet technologies, it is difficult to form a group of hardware and software technology development enterprise groups based on blockchain technology in the short term. As for achieving large-scale production and industrialization, obviously it will take a long time.
The third is that the evolution mechanisms of blockchain and Internet are different. The history of the Internet shows that countries and governments played a key role in the early days of the Internet. Later, because of a series of international protocols, including the TCP / IP protocol and the HTTP protocol at the application layer, the "cross-network" problem was solved, and the Internet was able to rapidly develop globally.
The blockchain is in a different situation. The blockchain has a worldwide influence because of the special currency. The birth of Ethereum has no government factor in the whole process. Later, no matter whether it is a private chain, a public chain, or an alliance chain, the application and expansion do not exist and do not require the introduction of any international agreement. Just because the blockchain itself is a protocol, or its own protocol features. It is the use of Internet technology, through a series of protocols, to achieve the functions and features of the "blockchain" now summarized. However, the blockchain protocol, after all, uses the community as a constraint boundary, and naturally there is a problem that it is difficult to "cross-chain".
Fourth, the application modes of blockchain and Internet are different. The Internet platform has the characteristics of a platform, and can realize the interactive communication between information and communication, including characters, languages, and pictures, at a low cost. Not only that, the Internet can realize more and more personalized information exchange, but also the integration and release of information resources.
Therefore, the Internet has created search engine companies such as Acura, social platform companies such as Facebook and Twitter, and Internet companies such as Amazon and Abbaba, which have formed a new type of Internet industry.
In the field of blockchain applications, such history is difficult to replicate in the short term. The most important thing is that it is difficult for the blockchain to create demand for individuals who tend to be limited, making them both users and creators of the blockchain.
Fifth, the expansion and spread paradigm of blockchain is different from interconnection. In the process of forming the interconnected industry, once a "leader" enterprise is formed, it will immediately produce a demonstration effect. This demonstration effect is international. For example, because of Amson, there was Amber Baba; because of Facebook, Twitter, WeChat.
Interconnected enterprises also have the characteristics of mutual penetration, because A has B, and A and B, C is inevitable. In addition, the C-side advantage of the interconnected industry is significant, and the extent to which the blockchain is the paradigm driven by the B-side. The scenario paradigm of connected applications, or the spread and expansion of connected industries, is difficult to replicate in the blockchain space. (Blockchain is more focused on the B side in China, mainly because of policies.)
The development of industrial blockchain depends on the digital process
First of all, the basic mode of the industrial blockchain has great restrictions on its development. Formerly, the combination of blockchain and industry has three modes:
1) An industry with a natural genetic relationship with the blockchain. For example, the crypto digital currency industry represented by ⽐ coin, and the extended ⾦ finance industry;
2) An industry transformed by the blockchain through the entire format. For example, IP industry, legal and accounting services;
3) Transplantation of blockchain technology to maintain industries with original industrial characteristics. For example, agriculture, counterfeiting, manufacturing, raw materials, energy, and transportation.
In the real economy, in the first mode of the industrial blockchain, the technology is relatively mature and the application potential is very high, but it is limited by government supervision and public acceptance. Due to the first mode of the industrial blockchain, the development space is limited, but the overall impact on the economy is limited.
In fact, blockchain technology is most needed, and the most difficult application of blockchain technology is precisely the third mode, the so-called real economy. ⽽ Without the combination of blockchain technology and the real economy, the industrial blockchain always stays in the initial stage . (This paragraph mainly describes the blockchain industry and its composition. In the current media, industrial blockchain mainly refers to the use of blockchain to serve B-side enterprises, or the physical industry uses blockchain technology.)
Second, the premise of realizing industrial blockchain is digitalization of the real economy. Realizing the integration of blockchain technology with the traditional real economy requires an important premise, which is that the real economy must first complete digital transformation. In the real economy, the digitization of the industry as a secondary industry, or the digitization of the industry, is the first to bear the brunt.
The fact is that, globally, only a few economies participate in advanced digital technologies, and the connotation is to realize electric and renewable energy, software platforms, the Internet of Things, data analysis, intelligence, and industrial machines. According to such standards, most countries are in a state of coexistence of production technology in different eras in which they have died.
If the traditional real economy does not have a digitized basic construction, without the introduction of data collection and analysis, it is almost impossible to directly introduce blockchain technology. In other words, if the traditional processing industry has realized digitalization and intelligent manufacturing, then the introduction of blockchain technology will not only make sense, but also increase significant benefits.
Furthermore, blockchain technology needs to address the digital gap. Future blockchain industry goals need to pay attention to the uneven distribution of digitalization of the real economy among different countries, regions and industries. It is best to build digital infrastructure and transform and integrate new digital technologies into existing production. enterprise.
At the same time, digital manufacturing technology requires specific digital analysis skills. Only by eliminating the digital gap and pushing the real economy to accumulate investment capabilities, technical capabilities and production capabilities for digital transformation, the application and transplantation of blockchain technology will ultimately have a solid foundation. Only after the traditional real economy has completed the digital transformation will the demand for blockchain technology be formed; on the contrary, it is "promoted by saplings" and hasten to reach speed. In fact, this is the current "bottleneck" in the transfer of blockchain technology to the industry.
The combination of the blockchain industry and traditional industries is not to implant blockchain technology in traditional industries, but to rebuild these industries on the chain. Corresponds to the Internet industry. For example, e-commerce, the traditional shopping mall to open a website is not an e-commerce. E-commerce refers to re-doing trade on the Internet, which is a new business model.
The same is true for the combination of blockchain and industry. It is not a traditional industry to develop a blockchain application. It is to reconstruct these industries on the blockchain. It is an industry on the chain, not a chain + industry or an industry + chain.
The future of industrial blockchain lies in new industries
The industrial structure is undergoing changes. Blockchain technology needs to open up a combination with new industries.
In the 1930s, British economist Ronald Aylmer Fisher (1890-1962) systematically put forward the theory and method of "three industries" classification in his book "The Conflict of Security and Progress" An empirical analysis is made on the evolution of the industrial structure after the death.
Afterwards, it was generally accepted that before the death of the industry, economic industries such as agriculture, animal husbandry, and forestry were the main production sectors; after the death of the industry, the machinery industry formed the Industry, replaced the first industry through industrialization and became the leading economy in the country; In the middle of the century, the tertiary industry first emerged in developed countries, absorbing large amounts of capital and labor, and the third industry replaced the first industry. ⼆ Dominance of the industry.
The problem is that the industrial classification pioneered by Fisher in the 1930s has passed seven or twenty years. The industrial structure of the world is different from that of the Fischer era. Its "three industries" classification, especially the third The benefits and limitations of the industrial system are obvious
Therefore, in view of the excessive complexity of the tertiary industry, we will transform the industry of scientific and technological knowledge from the tertiary industry into a "fourth industry", summarize the chemical industry and creative industries with the "fifth industry", and make profit-making public The industry is classified as the "sixth industry."
The so-called new industries that the blockchain needs to integrate include knowledge, technology, technology, and concept industries. The combination of blockchain with these new industries has the inherent advantages of digitalization, and there is a strong demand for blockchain technology. After application, it can show obvious benefits. Compared with the traditional real economy, the new industry is no longer restricted by the production factors such as capital, labor, and land. Its products are no longer subject to the physical structure, there is no wear and tear, depreciation, and even the waste process. New industries are more related to information, data, knowledge and ideas. Among them, data is particularly important and has become the most important factor in the production of new industries.
Therefore, new industries, especially future industries with virtual characteristics, need blockchain technology more. For example, the artistic creation process of fine arts, music, and dance is a digital process, which is condensed into the protection of intellectual property rights after the product. Our attention and experience of art products, and the trading of art products, because blockchain technology will be different. court.
Blockchain technology is still important for the future fusion industry. The traditional financial industry, and the capital and money markets associated with it, need to end the monopoly and distribution of currencies and financing sources, which is seriously unreasonable, and gradually transition to inclusive financial integration. Blockchain technology will help rebuild the future financial industry. Take "stable currency" as an example, let alone a collateralized "stable currency" or an algorithm-based "stable currency", which ultimately requires the support of blockchain technology. Stuck in all kinds of "tokens", it is only based on the premise of blockchain technology.
Conclusion: Seeking an "industrial connection" mechanism
In industrial economics, there is an "industry-related theory". The theory mainly emphasizes two points: (1) there is a relationship between intermediate investment and intermediate output between industries. Biantifu ’s “investment output” method provides a method and model for how to solve the intermediate investment and intermediate demand of various industries. (2) The related industries are gradually associated with forward and backward direction, and the effect of industry spread. Later, the concept of "industrial chain" that we proposed was actually describing the state of industrial association.
Now discussing the blockchain industry, we need to strengthen the idea of "industrial association". The success of the interconnected industry has benefited to a large extent from the "industrial association" mechanism, which can be expanded and deepened through the inherent relevance of the industry.
The blockchain industry also needs to seek an "industrial association" mechanism, build an associated node system, build an industry-blockchain interaction, induction, and dependency relationship, and ultimately stimulate related technology integration, capital demand, and employment, and improve adoption The profit and capital utilization rate of blockchain companies eventually form a blockchain-based industrial chain to avoid the "islandization" phenomenon of blockchain applications.
In addition, the overall development and upgrade of blockchain technology and the expansion of the scientific foundation of blockchain technology are important to the formation and development of the blockchain industry.