Zhu Jiaming: The 2020s is a key decade for the transformation of the global monetary system

Professor Zhu Jiaming said in his speech that new hopes and opportunities are being revealed in the 2020s. The entire system will be dissected, transformed and reconstructed in the next decade. At present, the explosion and integration of science and technology, the rapid expansion and growth of the new economy represented by the digital economy, and the overall improvement of human ethics. All the nodes that have changed history have been formed, and the main future direction begins to be clear. Although it is not possible to be specific, but affecting the middle and late 21st century, historical figures born in 1980, 1990 and 2000 have begun to enter the historical arena.

At the same time, Professor Zhu Jiaming pointed out that the most important choice in the 2020s is institutional + technological innovation, including the sharing economy, green economy, cooperative economy, and social enterprises. The goal of the monetary economy in the 2020s was inclusive finance. Regarding the status quo of the monetary economy, the four points that need to be emphasized are: the monetary and financial hegemony and monopoly are coming to an end, the monetary and financial science and technology revolution is maturing, the uneven distribution of monetary and financial resources tends to be equal, and the monetary and financial system is diversified.

"The transformation that involves structural, institutional, and systemic has begun. We are likely to be in the historical "turning point" among them, and how to choose the next direction."

The following is the full text of the speech:

Today I hope to enlarge the historical scene and talk more about how we view the development of the digital economy and digital currency supported by the blockchain under a large historical node.

In 2000, how many people were wrong in predicting how many of them were wrong in the next 20 years? I was an economist at the United Nations Industrial Development Organization. We discussed the Millennium Plan. It was later discovered that our predictions are quite different from the future development to a considerable extent. For example, at that time, no one thought that 911 would happen in 2001. No one foresees a global financial crisis in 2008. No one can foresee that the WTO will face very deep in ten or less years. No one can foresee that the President of the United States will be Trump, and he will withdraw from the Paris Environmental Protection Agreement. However, in all unforeseen, there is no way to foresee the development of the blockchain and the impact of the birth of Bitcoin on the world .

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People's foresight is always very limited, but there is a lot of experience to sum up, put what we are doing now in a larger historical environment, more complex ecology, and help us to look at our moments with limited wisdom. Therefore, the topic I want to talk about is "The Key Decade for the Transformation of the Global Monetary System in the 2020s."

What kind of era was 100 years ago? What kind of inspiration did that era give us? The 1920s 100 years ago was the first year of the end of the First World War. In the 1920s, it was a decade of intense collisions between crisis, transformation and innovation. It was a decade of hope, ideals and disappointment for mankind. It was a decade when the Great Depression eventually led to the Second World War. Eventually, human beings will be nirvana in the fire to a decade of material prosperity. The 1920s determined the entire direction of the 20th century. We believe that the 2020s will repeat the history of the 20th century.

I have chosen some of the world's recognized and representative figures who have influenced the history of the 20th century. At this moment 100 years ago, these historical figures have entered the historical arena, began to influence and change the political and social structure of the twentieth century, subvert traditional ideas and create new ways of life.

The 2020s will be a challenging era and will be the most crucial 10 years of the 21st century. The entire system of the 20th century was dissected, transformed and re-constructed in the next decade. We have made four inductions: the rigidization of traditional industries with machine material production as the main body requires radical transformation, a general slowdown in economic growth, overcapacity in traditional economic production, and a widening gap between the rich and the poor.

Under the framework of the Brinton Forest Conference, the monetary system is disintegrating. The traditional capital model, from the stock market to the fund, and the banking system centered on commercial banks are inevitably declining. These conclusions are now very clear. In addition, the environment continues to deteriorate, the unstoppable population explosion, and sustainable development are in trouble. The goal of achieving full employment worldwide has become an impossible event. Traditional economics and macroeconomic policies are difficult to adapt to new history. Under this circumstance, both the production system and the enterprise system need reform, the world cultural conflict will continue to escalate, the geopolitical pluralism, and the world will no longer be in a relatively stable situation in the 20th century. We know that the Great Depression occurred in 1929, but we can't predict whether there will be a Great Depression in the 21st Century 2.0.

Is it completely pessimistic? Nor is it. What kind of hopes and opportunities are being demonstrated in the 2020s? How to rejuvenate the long-lost ideal?

The first thing is the explosion and integration of science and technology. The emerging economy, represented by the digital economy, is expanding and growing, and the ethical level of human beings has been comprehensively improved. But the most important thing is that the nodes that change history and direction have already formed. You are all in this node, and the main future direction begins to be clear. Although it is not possible to be specific, it affects the middle and late 21st century, and historical figures born in 1980, 1990 and 2000 have already entered the historical arena. There are a bunch of 80s and 90s here, and their impact on the future cannot be underestimated. Among your generation, there will undoubtedly be the top 10, the top 20, and even the top 50 who will affect the 21st century.

The most important choice in 2020 is institutional + technological innovation, in which a combination of shared economy, green economy, cooperative economy and comprehensive social enterprise will occur.

As a monetary economy, the biggest goal in 2020 is to start practicing inclusive finance. I am here to emphasize at four points: first, monetary finance and monopoly are coming to an end; second, monetary and financial science and technology revolution is maturing; third, monetary and financial resources are unevenly distributed and tend to be equal; fourth, monetary and financial systems Diversified.

The picture shows that from 2010 to the end of the entire technology finance's explosive power and actual progress is significantly more than imagined, finance will be changed by technology and change, this moment has arrived.

I have said on some occasions that because of the emergence of bitcoin, Libra and other digital currencies and blockchains, the theory and practice in the field of money will fully enter a new era of diversification. In theory, the theory of quantity of money, Keynesian theory, the combination of the two, and the new monetary economics, combined with the digital currency theory triggered by digital currency, will coexist. In the real monetary and financial activities and economic life, the 'dual track system' in which both sovereign and non-sovereign currencies coexist, and the 'new copy-based system' where physical money and virtual currency coexist will coexist.

A major transformation involving structural, institutional and systemic has begun. In 100 years, there may be only one generation, and at most two generations can experience such a major transformation. We know that transformation is not enough. When we combine informationization, networking, blockchain and globalization, we will provide you with a transformation point.

Source: Mars Finance

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