A shares should not be too optimistic, BTC medium-term or expected

❖A shares ❖

Yesterday, when the A-share market opened, it recorded its largest decline in more than 4 years. The Shanghai Stock Index fell 7.72% at the opening. Yesterday's closing was slightly warmer than the opening. The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 2716.7 and closed at 2746.61, up 1.1%.

Today, the opening was down 2.23% from yesterday's close, but today it is up 3.65% again.

Many people think this is a chance to buy a bottom, so today and yesterday the closing price is higher than the opening price.

TVB felt that A shares were not as optimistic as we thought.

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➤ Fall after the festival

First, the Chinese New Year is the most important day, and it is inevitable for the Chinese to buy and buy during this period. Therefore, it is reasonable for A shares to rise before the holiday.

Chinese New Year 2020: 2020-01-24

Chinese New Year 2019: 2019-02-05

Chinese New Year 2018: 2018-02-16

One month before the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index was rising. Of course, 3 years of data is not enough to illustrate this problem with certainty. However, in January 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 6.2%. This increase is not small, so although the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has fallen sharply, there is not necessarily much room for rebound.

➤ Outbreak affects economy

Second, the epidemic cannot be ignored. SARS in 2003 also began to appear in December 2002, but it was not until April 2003 that the epidemic situation could not be covered, and this time it was made public again. The current coronavirus also appeared in December last year. However, in January this year, Wuhan closed the city and the country imposed a ban on the country. The death toll has already exceeded SARS.

On the one hand, people cannot resume work, and on the other hand, they have to maintain various expenses. Apart from the necessary food and clothing, the heaviest burden is the mortgage and rent.

The Spring Festival in many areas has been postponed until after the 15th of the first month. Except for some industries that can work remotely, people cannot resume production, and production nationwide is decreasing. People cannot go out. Apart from basic needs, people cannot go out to entertain and consume. Consumption nationwide is decreasing.

If the epidemic cannot be effectively controlled, China's economy will continue to suffer losses. A shares are unlikely to recover.

➤ Macro policy after the epidemic

Third, it is also due to the impact of the epidemic. Most Chinese people have reduced their corporate and residential income, and their consumption has decreased accordingly. What is one way to solve this problem?

Yes, it is to stimulate consumption and production through expansionary monetary policy tools and fiscal tools such as interest rate cuts and RRR cuts. Then, the decline of the RMB exchange rate is a result. Therefore, in the process of gradual economic recovery, A-shares will gradually pick up, but we actually have not increased that much wealth.

➤ Risk in an outbreak

Fourth, although it is generally believed that the currency market is more risky than the stock market, TVB does not think it is necessary in this particular period. The currency market does fluctuate very much, but the currency market is continuous 24 hours a day, and we can enter and leave the market at any time. However, A-shares are not open every day of the day. During the period when A-shares are not open, various things are likely to happen and we have no control over them. On January 23, shareholders did not know that A-shares would be delayed, and did not expect that A-shares would have more blood flow when the market opened again. However, in these 11 days, I knew that A shares would fall, but there was no way. Closed and reopened, the stock price fell 7.72%, which is no lower risk than the currency market.

❖Coin Market❖

➤ Short-term

Just four hours before the writing of this article, BTC fell like crazy.

TVB is wondering if this decline is related to A shares. Looking at the Nasdaq and Dow Jones indexes, they were still very volatile and not affected much by the outbreak.

TVB feels that bit fluctuations are a market-washer, and by the way harvest the futures market. According to Bitkan's market view of currency, within an hour, the entire network ran out of USD 21.94 million. Subsequently, BTC rebounded again to more than 9,200 knives, the short-term currency market is indeed difficult to predict.

➤ Medium

Although the currency price is unpredictable in the short term, it may be expected in the medium term.

After all, the BTC halving is imminent.

From the perspective of supply, as the output of BTC is halved, the output of the same computing power is about to be halved. This means that the production cost of BTC increases, so the price floor for miners to sell BTC will rise.

From the perspective of demand, BTC's deceleration issuance has increased its scarcity.

Even if the needs of the people who bought the currency did not change. The psychology of miners, that is, the supply side, will also drive up the price of BTC.

Last year's BTC was raised to a maximum of $ 12,000, and the BTC halved this year is theoretically not lower than last year's level. Of course, due to the existence of speculation, the fluctuation of BTC may not reach a high point this year, but the halving will definitely promote the price of BTC, so it is not guaranteed in the short term, but BTC in the medium term is still worth looking forward to.

❖ Written at the end ❖

The experience of the currency circle is that the high point brought by the halving of BTC will not occur on the day of halving, nor will it occur after halving, but before halving. The halving is expected around May 20 this year. It is three and a half months away.

Looking at A shares, A shares are closely related to epidemic control. According to some SARS data and information. SARS virus is afraid of high temperature, so it gradually disappeared after May. Coronavirus is currently a close relative of SARS. The pessimistic estimate was that in May, he died gradually due to the high temperature. The most optimistic estimate is that the outbreak was brought under control in February-March. And the economy needs a process of recovery.

Therefore, from a cyclical point of view, before May, BTC is more worth looking forward to than A shares.

From a risk perspective. Currency price risk is something we are accustomed to, as long as you are not holding futures, but spot. On the contrary, the risk of coronavirus and epidemic to A shares is the black swan.

Therefore, before May this year, TVB believed that we should not be too optimistic about A shares. Although BTC cannot guarantee it in the short term, it may give us higher returns in the medium term.

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